Rough-Supplement
0x84045adc144d1d21de8a66e166b3e3f0f347266d
Wallet digest
Activity score
90/100
Performance: thin sample
Open positions
1
Open notional
$277.06
Total PnL
$1.83
Realised
$0.03
Win rate
n/a
too few closed
Recent activity
- YIELD$0.02Jul 25, 00:11 UTC
- YIELD$0.02Jul 24, 00:11 UTC
- YIELD$0.02Jul 23, 00:11 UTC
- YIELD$0.02Jul 22, 00:15 UTC
- YIELD$0.02Jul 21, 20:11 UTC
- YIELD$0.02Jul 21, 00:12 UTC
- TRADESELLWill James Talarico win the 2028 US Presidential Election?$1.09Jul 20, 04:50 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill James Talarico win the 2028 US Presidential Election?$1.38Jul 20, 02:33 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Kim Kardashian win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?$1.08Jul 19, 05:40 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Kim Kardashian win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?$1.46Jul 19, 03:17 UTC
- YIELD$0.02Jul 19, 00:12 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Jalen Brunson win the 2028 US Presidential Election?$0.59Jul 18, 22:10 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Jalen Brunson win the 2028 US Presidential Election?$1.27Jul 18, 20:13 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Barack Obama win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?$1.21Jul 18, 12:42 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Barack Obama win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?$1.53Jul 18, 10:03 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Chelsea Clinton win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?$1.38Jul 18, 04:36 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Graham Platner win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?$0.98Jul 18, 02:34 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Graham Platner win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?$1.41Jul 18, 01:23 UTC
- YIELD$0.02Jul 18, 00:11 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Roy Cooper win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?$1.69Jul 17, 20:35 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Wallet edge sanity
Do not mirror
0/100Treat this wallet as noise/context only until resolved history, copy-risk, and liquidity checks improve.
Win rate is hidden until at least 3 closed markets exist for this wallet.
Use this wallet as an attention signal only, then verify liquidity and resolution risk.
Required before treating wallet flow as useful
Only 1 closed markets; headline win rate is intentionally hidden.
A wallet trade is not useful unless a later follower could still enter after spread, slippage, and latency.
Large positions need enough depth to exit; mark-to-market PnL is not cash.
The trade still needs source, expiry, dispute, and settlement checks at the market level.
Leaderboards surface visible winners; losing or abandoned wallets disappear from attention.
Wallet intelligence filter
Blocked
0/100Wallet flow is blocked as an intelligence signal until hard failures are fixed.
36 live trades, 0 ledger trades, copy-risk 68/100.
Too few closed markets. Do not infer edge from open PnL or leaderboard rank.
No market-level spread or simulated execution cost is attached yet.
No source/expiry/dispute risk context is attached yet.
No market liquidity/depth context is attached yet.
No delayed-entry simulation is attached yet.
No paper receipts attribute this wallet signal to later outcomes yet.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 36
- Avg trade size
- $1.35
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- Jul 11, 18:24 UTC
- Last active
- Jul 25, 00:11 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 1 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.