Powerless-Kilt
0x844ac1aee4dc203080e63e650e043a8ad8145f53
Wallet digest
Activity score
75/100
Performance: thin sample
Open positions
11
Open notional
$826.89
Total PnL
$-989.19
Realised
$0.00
Win rate
n/a
too few closed
Largest open positions
showing 10 of 11- YES
Will a new Gemini flagship be released by June 30, 2026?
591 shares @ 89.8¢·now 85.0¢·exp Jun 30, 2026$502.49
$-27.99
- YES
Will the next model released by OpenAI debut at a score of at least 1450?
313 shares @ 76.0¢·now 81.0¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$253.60
$15.64
- YES
GPT-5.6 released by June 30, 2026?
50 shares @ 75.0¢·now 77.0¢·exp Jun 30, 2026$38.50
$1.00
- YES
Will Google Gemini score at least 50% on Humanity’s Last Exam?
100 shares @ 50.0¢·now 28.0¢·exp Feb 28, 2026$28.00
$-22.00
- NO
Will any xAI Grok model score at least 25% on the FrontierMath Exam?
10 shares @ 52.0¢·now 43.0¢·exp Feb 28, 2026$4.30
$-0.90
- NO
Will the next Google Gemini model added to the Arena Leaderboard debut at a score of at least 1480?
1223 shares @ 2.1¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jan 1, 1970$0.00
$-26.27
- NO
Will a Claude Mythos model be released by June 30, 2026?
1060 shares @ 66.8¢·now 0.0¢·exp Apr 30, 2026$0.00
$-707.67
- NO
Will the next Google Gemini model added to the Arena Leaderboard debut at a score of at least 1470?
300 shares @ 1.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jan 1, 1970$0.00
$-3.00
- NO
Will Claude 5 be released by June 30, 2026?
100 shares @ 87.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jun 30, 2026$0.00
$-87.00
- NO
Will a Claude Mythos model be released by June 15, 2026?
100 shares @ 66.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jun 15, 2026$0.00
$-66.00
Recent activity
- TRADEBUYWill Google Gemini score at least 60% on the FrontierMath Benchmark?$23.41Jun 12, 17:45 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Google Gemini score at least 60% on the FrontierMath Benchmark?$26.98Jun 12, 17:42 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Anthropic have the top AI model at the end of June 2026?$10.61Jun 9, 18:16 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Google have the best AI model at the end of June 2026?$9.55Jun 9, 18:12 UTC
- REDEEMWill GPT-5.6 be released between June 1 and June 7, 2026?$200.00Jun 8, 14:06 UTC
- TRADESELLWill a Claude Mythos model be released by July 31, 2026?$18.38Jun 7, 02:11 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill a Claude Mythos model be released by June 15, 2026?$20.57Jun 6, 17:11 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill a Claude Mythos model be released by June 15, 2026?$37.64Jun 6, 17:08 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill a Claude Mythos model be released by June 15, 2026?$7.79Jun 6, 17:08 UTC
- REDEEMGPT-5.6 released by June 5, 2026?$273.27Jun 6, 08:15 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill a Claude Mythos model be released by July 31, 2026?$0.88Jun 3, 10:05 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill a Claude Mythos model be released by July 31, 2026?$11.24Jun 3, 09:32 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill a Claude Mythos model be released by July 31, 2026?$21.79Jun 3, 09:29 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill GPT-5.6 be released between June 1 and June 7, 2026?$188.45Jun 3, 08:37 UTC
- TRADEBUYGPT-5.6 released by June 5, 2026?$262.68Jun 3, 08:30 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill a Claude Mythos model be released by July 31, 2026?$1.08Jun 3, 07:41 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the next model released by OpenAI debut at a score of at least 1450?$72.00Jun 2, 00:34 UTC
- REDEEMWill Claude 5 be released by May 31, 2026?$23.37Jun 1, 13:18 UTC
- REDEEMWill Google have the best Math AI model at the end of May 2026?$50.00Jun 1, 13:18 UTC
- REDEEMWill Anthropic have the best Coding AI model at the end of May 2026?$328.84Jun 1, 13:18 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 43
- Avg trade size
- $37.78
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- May 24, 10:20 UTC
- Last active
- Jun 12, 17:45 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 0 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.