Will any xAI Grok model score at least 25% on the FrontierMath Exam?
Probability
59¢
1h
+0.5pp
24h
+4.5pp
24h Vol
$0.00
Liquidity
$1.5K
Probability (last 7 days)
+2.0pp 7dWhy did it move?
Heuristic summary, generated from the public market metrics above: probability movement, volume, liquidity, spread, signals, and resolution status.
Timeline — news, trades, signals, price moves
- 03:18SignalLOW
Signal · Resolution risk
Market has reached expiry. Watch the UMA dispute window.
- 03:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability down -5.5pp
to 57¢
- 02:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability down -10.0pp
to 59¢
- 00:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability down -6.5pp
to 57¢
- 23:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability down -9.5pp
to 58¢
- 21:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability down -10.0pp
to 57¢
- 20:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability down -4.0pp
to 59¢
- 18:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability down -7.5pp
to 55¢
- 16:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability down -6.0pp
to 59¢
- 14:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability down -7.5pp
to 59¢
- 12:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability down -12.5pp
to 56¢
- 11:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability down -7.0pp
to 56¢
- 10:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability down -5.5pp
to 56¢
- 08:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability down -4.0pp
to 59¢
- 06:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability down -4.5pp
to 55¢
- 05:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability down -7.5pp
to 54¢
- 1d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability down -5.5pp
to 54¢
- 1d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability down -5.5pp
to 55¢
- 1d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability down -5.0pp
to 54¢
- 1d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability down -7.0pp
to 56¢
- 1d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability up 4.0pp
to 59¢
- 1d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability down -8.5pp
to 55¢
- 2d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability down -6.5pp
to 58¢
- 2d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability up 8.5pp
to 69¢
- 2d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability up 9.0pp
to 64¢
- 2d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability up 8.5pp
to 64¢
Active signals
Recent Trades
No recent trades visible from the Data API for this market.
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Market Description
This market will resolve to "Yes" if any xAI Grok model achieves the listed score or greater on the FrontierMath Exam by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, the market will resolve to "No". This market will resolve according to the Epoch AI’s Frontier Math benchmarking leaderboard (https://epoch.ai/frontiermath) for Tier 1-3. Studies which are not included in the leaderboard (e.g. https://x.com/EpochAIResearch/status/1945905796904005720) will not be considered. The primary resolution source will be information from EpochAI; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Resolution & Risk
LOW risk- End date
- Feb 28, 2026
- UMA status
- n/a
- Resolution source
- Not specified in metadata
- Market type
- Binary
- Wide spread (25.0¢) — liquidity risk on entry/exit.
Alerts
In-app banners work now. Email / Telegram / Discord delivery lands when the backend alert dispatcher ships (needs RESEND_API_KEY + per-user webhook storage).