First-Sphere
0x8454f39e7fa6957dfbf1ecc574820ada1c92331a
Wallet digest
Activity score
70/100
Performance measurable
Open positions
200
Open notional
$155.6K
Total PnL
$-131.7K
Realised
$-193.09
Win rate
38%
39 closed
Largest open positions
showing 10 of 200- NO
Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?
30000 shares @ 50.0¢·now 76.8¢·exp Nov 7, 2028$23.0K
$8.0K
- YES
Will Iran Play in the World Cup?
10504 shares @ 87.5¢·now 99.1¢·exp Aug 2, 2026$10.4K
$1.2K
- NO
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by June 15?
10000 shares @ 98.7¢·now 99.8¢·exp Jun 15, 2026$10.0K
$105.01
- NO
Iran leadership change by December 31?
10635 shares @ 51.8¢·now 79.5¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$8.5K
$2.9K
- NO
Iran coup attempt by June 30?
8639 shares @ 83.3¢·now 97.3¢·exp Jun 30, 2026$8.4K
$1.2K
- NO
Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election?
7539 shares @ 92.3¢·now 98.8¢·exp Jun 7, 2026$7.4K
$483.02
- NO
Starmer out by June 30, 2026?
8499 shares @ 63.9¢·now 82.5¢·exp Jun 30, 2026$7.0K
$1.6K
- YES
Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?
30000 shares @ 50.0¢·now 23.3¢·exp Nov 7, 2028$7.0K
$-8.0K
- NO
Trump renames ICE to NICE by June 30?
5491 shares @ 85.9¢·now 97.5¢·exp Jun 30, 2026$5.4K
$639.43
- NO
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $65 in June?
5000 shares @ 96.1¢·now 90.5¢·exp Jul 1, 2026$4.5K
$-282.50
Recent activity
- TRADEBUYWill Ko Itakura be in Japan's Starting 11?$50.05Jun 13, 10:31 UTC
- TRADEBUYGMGN FDV above $800M one day after launch$35.60Jun 13, 09:35 UTC
- TRADEBUYGMGN FDV above $900M one day after launch$45.00Jun 13, 09:35 UTC
- TRADEBUYGMGN FDV above $600M one day after launch$6.07Jun 13, 09:34 UTC
- TRADEBUYGMGN FDV above $800M one day after launch$4.85Jun 13, 09:34 UTC
- TRADESELLArc FDV above $800M one day after launch?$0.92Jun 13, 08:54 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Karol G perform at the 2026 FIFA World Cup Final halftime show?$0.97Jun 13, 08:09 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Christian Pulisic score 1+ goals during the 2026 FIFA World Cup?$21.59Jun 13, 07:45 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill United States be an advancing Group Stage third-place team at the 2026 World Cup?$8.14Jun 13, 07:38 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Paraguay finish second in Group D in the 2026 FIFA World Cup Group Stage?$0.96Jun 13, 07:19 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill United States be an advancing Group Stage third-place team at the 2026 World Cup?$2.14Jun 13, 07:17 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Paraguay be an advancing Group Stage third-place team at the 2026 World Cup?$10.00Jun 13, 07:02 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Paraguay be an advancing Group Stage third-place team at the 2026 World Cup?$0.50Jun 13, 07:02 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Bosnia & Herzegovina be eliminated in the Round of 32 of the World Cup?$105.73Jun 13, 07:00 UTC
- TRADESELLWill WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $65 in June?$4.5KJun 13, 06:53 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Canada be an advancing Group Stage third-place team at the 2026 World Cup?$3.36Jun 13, 06:46 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Jude Bellingham win the Bronze Ball at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?$171.63Jun 13, 06:36 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Tems perform at the 2026 FIFA World Cup Final halftime show?$7.26Jun 13, 06:28 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Lamine Yamal score 5+ goals during the 2026 FIFA World Cup?$1.98Jun 13, 05:47 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill United States be an advancing Group Stage third-place team at the 2026 World Cup?$2.80Jun 13, 04:53 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 45
- Avg trade size
- $127.66
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- Jun 12, 22:30 UTC
- Last active
- Jun 13, 10:31 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 39 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.