Medium-Infection
0x845e74d8be1b215f13f239bb3636b706d956d22b
Wallet digest
Activity score
84/100
Performance: thin sample
Open positions
9
Open notional
$6.5K
Total PnL
$-646.80
Realised
$-30.79
Win rate
n/a
too few closed
Largest open positions
- YES
Will Mitch McConnell step down from the Senate before his term ends?
5708 shares @ 68.0¢·now 55.5¢·exp Jan 3, 2027$3.2K
$-714.02
- YES
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $80 in July?
2109 shares @ 33.0¢·now 47.0¢·exp Aug 1, 2026$991.01
$295.20
- NO
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?
859 shares @ 84.1¢·now 82.5¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$708.61
$-13.47
- NO
Iran military action against a Gulf State on July 9?
566 shares @ 80.0¢·now 80.3¢·exp Jul 9, 2026$454.40
$1.97
- YES
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by July 31, 2026?
1141 shares @ 45.1¢·now 34.5¢·exp Jul 31, 2026$393.64
$-121.37
- YES
US-Iran 60 day negotiation period extended?
858 shares @ 55.4¢·now 45.5¢·exp Aug 20, 2026$390.26
$-84.55
- YES
US reissues Iran oil sanction relief by July 31?
1693 shares @ 22.0¢·now 23.0¢·exp Jul 31, 2026$389.28
$16.93
- NO
Will Iran announce withdrawal from MOU negotiations by July 31?
39 shares @ 77.7¢·now 81.5¢·exp Jul 31, 2026$31.77
$1.49
- YES
US reissues Iran oil sanction relief by August 31?
28 shares @ 33.0¢·now 39.5¢·exp Aug 31, 2026$11.06
$1.82
Recent activity
- TRADEBUYUS reissues Iran oil sanction relief by July 31?$1.32Jul 12, 06:49 UTC
- TRADEBUYUS reissues Iran oil sanction relief by July 31?$2.64Jul 12, 04:20 UTC
- TRADEBUYUS reissues Iran oil sanction relief by July 31?$2.82Jul 12, 03:47 UTC
- TRADEBUYUS reissues Iran oil sanction relief by July 31?$5.64Jul 12, 03:47 UTC
- TRADEBUYUS reissues Iran oil sanction relief by July 31?$189.20Jul 12, 02:49 UTC
- TRADEBUYUS reissues Iran oil sanction relief by July 31?$0.20Jul 12, 02:30 UTC
- TRADEBUYUS reissues Iran oil sanction relief by July 31?$51.48Jul 12, 01:35 UTC
- TRADEBUYUS reissues Iran oil sanction relief by August 31?$9.24Jul 12, 00:20 UTC
- TRADEBUYUS reissues Iran oil sanction relief by July 31?$119.06Jul 12, 00:06 UTC
- REWARD$1.27Jul 12, 00:00 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $80 in July?$714.47Jul 11, 22:25 UTC
- TRADESELLWill the US announce a blockade on Iran by July 31?$387.73Jul 11, 22:24 UTC
- TRADEBUYIran military action against a Gulf State on July 9?$52.47Jul 11, 18:40 UTC
- TRADEBUYIran military action against a Gulf State on July 9?$0.11Jul 11, 18:15 UTC
- TRADEBUYIran military action against a Gulf State on July 9?$3.76Jul 11, 18:15 UTC
- TRADEBUYIran military action against a Gulf State on July 9?$198.36Jul 11, 18:14 UTC
- TRADEBUYIran military action against a Gulf State on July 9?$95.00Jul 11, 18:11 UTC
- TRADEBUYIran military action against a Gulf State on July 9?$4.99Jul 11, 18:04 UTC
- TRADEBUYIran military action against a Gulf State on July 9?$95.28Jul 11, 18:03 UTC
- TRADEBUYIran military action against a Gulf State on July 9?$2.45Jul 11, 18:02 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Wallet edge sanity
Do not mirror
0/100Treat this wallet as noise/context only until resolved history, copy-risk, and liquidity checks improve.
Win rate is hidden until at least 3 closed markets exist for this wallet.
Use this wallet as an attention signal only, then verify liquidity and resolution risk.
Required before treating wallet flow as useful
Only 1 closed markets; headline win rate is intentionally hidden.
A wallet trade is not useful unless a later follower could still enter after spread, slippage, and latency.
Large positions need enough depth to exit; mark-to-market PnL is not cash.
The trade still needs source, expiry, dispute, and settlement checks at the market level.
Leaderboards surface visible winners; losing or abandoned wallets disappear from attention.
Wallet intelligence filter
Blocked
0/100Wallet flow is blocked as an intelligence signal until hard failures are fixed.
45 live trades, 0 ledger trades, copy-risk 69/100.
Too few closed markets. Do not infer edge from open PnL or leaderboard rank.
No market-level spread or simulated execution cost is attached yet.
No source/expiry/dispute risk context is attached yet.
No market liquidity/depth context is attached yet.
No delayed-entry simulation is attached yet.
No paper receipts attribute this wallet signal to later outcomes yet.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 45
- Avg trade size
- $112.51
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- Jul 8, 20:22 UTC
- Last active
- Jul 12, 06:49 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 1 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.