Messy-Overview
0x847e603d710570040af83c9037d5f03e7b29917f
Wallet digest
Activity score
50/100
Performance: thin sample
Open positions
17
Open notional
$0.00
Total PnL
$-31.35
Realised
$0.00
Win rate
n/a
too few closed
Largest open positions
showing 10 of 17- YES
Will Tom Steyer win the California Governor Election in 2026?
1 shares @ 67.7¢·now 0.1¢·exp Nov 3, 2026$0.00
$-1.00
- NO
Military action against Iran ends by April 17, 2026?
3000 shares @ 0.1¢·now 0.0¢·exp Apr 30, 2026$0.00
$-3.00
- NO
Will Iran strike Iraq by April 30, 2026?
2000 shares @ 0.1¢·now 0.0¢·exp Apr 30, 2026$0.00
$-2.00
- NO
Israel x Hezbollah ceasefire by April 18, 2026?
2000 shares @ 0.1¢·now 0.0¢·exp Apr 15, 2026$0.00
$-2.00
- YES
Will Alfonso López Chau finish in fourth place in the first round of the 2026 Peruvian presidential election?
2000 shares @ 0.1¢·now 0.0¢·exp Apr 12, 2026$0.00
$-2.00
- NO
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from April 18 to April 20, 2026?
1530 shares @ 0.1¢·now 0.0¢·exp Apr 20, 2026$0.00
$-1.53
- YES
Will Devin Booker win the 2025–2026 NBA MVP?
1000 shares @ 0.1¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jun 10, 2026$0.00
$-1.00
- YES
Will Carlos Álvarez finish in first place in the first round of the 2026 Peruvian presidential election?
1000 shares @ 0.1¢·now 0.0¢·exp Apr 12, 2026$0.00
$-1.00
- YES
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 50+ bps after the June 2026 meeting?
1000 shares @ 0.1¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jun 17, 2026$0.00
$-1.00
- YES
Will the next Prime Minister of Hungary be László Toroczkai?
1000 shares @ 0.1¢·now 0.0¢·exp Apr 12, 2026$0.00
$-1.00
Recent activity
- TRADEBUYWill the Fed increase interest rates by 50+ bps after the June 2026 meeting?$1.05Jun 15, 20:53 UTC
- REDEEMWill Keiko Fujimori finish in first place in the first round of the 2026 Peruvian presidential election?$1.00Jun 15, 20:48 UTC
- REDEEMWill the price of Ethereum be above $2,600 on May 7?$0.00May 11, 05:18 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the price of Ethereum be above $2,600 on May 7?$1.07May 7, 12:28 UTC
- REDEEMWill the Iranian regime fall by April 30?$1.02May 7, 12:22 UTC
- REDEEMWill the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the April 2026 meeting?$0.00May 1, 08:48 UTC
- TRADESELLTrump out as President by April 30?$0.13Apr 30, 21:06 UTC
- REDEEMWill the price of Ethereum be between $2,000 and $2,100 on April 15?$0.00Apr 21, 05:08 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from April 18 to April 20, 2026?$1.61Apr 20, 20:44 UTC
- REDEEMWill the price of Ethereum be above $2,400 on April 20?$0.00Apr 20, 20:42 UTC
- REDEEMWill MrBeast's next video get less than 46 million views on day 2?$0.00Apr 20, 20:40 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the price of Ethereum be above $2,400 on April 20?$1.00Apr 20, 10:35 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Bitcoin reach $85,000 in April?$1.00Apr 20, 10:34 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill MrBeast's next video get less than 46 million views on day 2?$1.00Apr 20, 10:31 UTC
- REDEEMWill the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 27°C on April 18?$0.00Apr 20, 10:29 UTC
- TRADESELLBitcoin Up or Down on April 19?$1.32Apr 19, 16:01 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down on April 19?$1.00Apr 19, 14:16 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down on April 19?$1.00Apr 19, 14:16 UTC
- REDEEMWill Elon Musk post 115-139 tweets from April 16 to April 18, 2026?$0.00Apr 19, 07:14 UTC
- REDEEMWill the price of Solana be between $120 and $130 on April 18?$0.00Apr 19, 07:13 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Wallet edge sanity
Do not mirror
0/100Treat this wallet as noise/context only until resolved history, copy-risk, and liquidity checks improve.
Win rate is hidden until at least 3 closed markets exist for this wallet.
Use this wallet as an attention signal only, then verify liquidity and resolution risk.
Many positions were entered near obvious prices, which can inflate win rate while hiding tail risk.
Required before treating wallet flow as useful
Only 0 closed markets; headline win rate is intentionally hidden.
A wallet trade is not useful unless a later follower could still enter after spread, slippage, and latency.
Large positions need enough depth to exit; mark-to-market PnL is not cash.
The trade still needs source, expiry, dispute, and settlement checks at the market level.
Leaderboards surface visible winners; losing or abandoned wallets disappear from attention.
Wallet intelligence filter
Blocked
0/100Wallet flow is blocked as an intelligence signal until hard failures are fixed.
38 live trades, 0 ledger trades, copy-risk 68/100.
Too few closed markets. Do not infer edge from open PnL or leaderboard rank.
No market-level spread or simulated execution cost is attached yet.
No source/expiry/dispute risk context is attached yet.
No market liquidity/depth context is attached yet.
No delayed-entry simulation is attached yet.
No paper receipts attribute this wallet signal to later outcomes yet.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 38
- Avg trade size
- $1.11
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- Apr 15, 10:54 UTC
- Last active
- Jun 15, 20:53 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 0 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.