Our-Ton
0x8528cb0933a03df033dde532eb3965b2533ed446
Wallet digest
Activity score
63/100
Performance measurable
Open positions
49
Open notional
$865.07
Total PnL
$-5.9K
Realised
$-126.47
Win rate
20%
5 closed
Largest open positions
showing 10 of 49- YES
OpenAI $1T+ valuation in 2026?
1000 shares @ 65.0¢·now 83.3¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$832.99
$183.00
- YES
Will Charles Leclerc be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion?
1426 shares @ 3.5¢·now 2.3¢·exp Dec 6, 2026$32.09
$-17.91
- YES
GPT-5 scores above 40% on Humanity’s Last Exam?
4581 shares @ 15.2¢·now 0.0¢·exp Oct 31, 2025$0.00
$-695.95
- YES
Will GPT-5 be released on August 14?
3659 shares @ 1.6¢·now 0.0¢·exp Aug 14, 2025$0.00
$-59.97
- YES
Will GPT-5 be released on August 12?
3637 shares @ 1.6¢·now 0.0¢·exp Aug 12, 2025$0.00
$-59.93
- YES
AI model scores ≥ 90% on FrontierMath Benchmark in 2025?
2594 shares @ 8.8¢·now 0.0¢·exp Dec 31, 2025$0.00
$-227.77
- YES
Will Google Gemini 3 score at least 40% on the FrontierMath Benchmark?
2239 shares @ 72.9¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jan 31, 2026$0.00
$-1.6K
- YES
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026?
2222 shares @ 0.9¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jul 1, 2026$0.00
$-20.00
- YES
Will Gemini 3.0 be released by October 31?
1539 shares @ 42.2¢·now 0.0¢·exp Oct 31, 2025$0.00
$-650.00
- YES
Will Max Verstappen be the 2025 Drivers Champion?
1171 shares @ 0.9¢·now 0.0¢·exp Dec 7, 2025$0.00
$-10.00
Recent activity
- REDEEMWill any OpenAI GPT model score at least 70% on the FrontierMath Exam?$572.36Jun 13, 06:36 UTC
- REDEEMWill any OpenAI GPT model score at least 60% on the FrontierMath Exam?$897.00Jun 13, 06:36 UTC
- REDEEMWill any Anthropic Claude model score at least 50% on the FrontierMath Exam?$620.79Jun 13, 06:30 UTC
- TRADESELLWill any Anthropic Claude model score at least 50% on the FrontierMath Exam?$335.59Jun 13, 00:10 UTC
- TRADESELLWill any OpenAI GPT model score at least 70% on the FrontierMath Exam?$187.23Jun 13, 00:05 UTC
- TRADESELLWill any Anthropic Claude model score at least 50% on the FrontierMath Exam?$974.66Jun 13, 00:03 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill any Anthropic Claude model score at least 50% on the FrontierMath Exam?$48.38Jun 13, 00:03 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill any Anthropic Claude model score at least 50% on the FrontierMath Exam?$10.99Jun 12, 23:35 UTC
- MAKER_REBATE$3.87Jun 12, 00:45 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill any Anthropic Claude model score at least 50% on the FrontierMath Exam?$44.48Jun 11, 05:52 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill any Anthropic Claude model score at least 50% on the FrontierMath Exam?$1.2KJun 11, 05:50 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill any Anthropic Claude model score at least 50% on the FrontierMath Exam?$112.00Jun 9, 17:26 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill any OpenAI GPT model score at least 70% on the FrontierMath Exam?$1.45Jun 8, 20:02 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Charles Leclerc be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion?$51.45Jun 2, 20:32 UTC
- TRADEBUYMicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026?$20.79Jun 2, 20:31 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill any OpenAI GPT model score at least 70% on the FrontierMath Exam?$2.62Jun 1, 17:26 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill any OpenAI GPT model score at least 60% on the FrontierMath Exam?$1.45May 10, 09:13 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill any OpenAI GPT model score at least 60% on the FrontierMath Exam?$1.75Apr 28, 07:38 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill any OpenAI GPT model score at least 60% on the FrontierMath Exam?$86.60Apr 28, 07:37 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill any OpenAI GPT model score at least 70% on the FrontierMath Exam?$35.56Apr 23, 20:45 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 37
- Avg trade size
- $143.09
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- Mar 6, 07:49 UTC
- Last active
- Jun 13, 06:36 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 5 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.