Ill-Informed-Undertaker
0x85e7e44e1b2eda0e6de42ad5c8c25f2c9daf5e49
Wallet digest
Activity score
55/100
Performance measurable
Open positions
15
Open notional
$720.99
Total PnL
$-610.09
Realised
$-143.26
Win rate
0%
3 closed
Largest open positions
showing 10 of 15- YES
Will inflation reach more than 4.5% in 2026?
701 shares @ 30.7¢·now 24.5¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$171.81
$-43.56
- YES
Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by September 30?
832 shares @ 18.3¢·now 20.0¢·exp Apr 30, 2026$166.35
$14.21
- YES
Base FDV above $2B one day after launch?
268 shares @ 71.0¢·now 55.0¢·exp Jan 1, 2028$147.19
$-42.81
- YES
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026?
2779 shares @ 12.2¢·now 3.9¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$107.01
$-231.31
- NO
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by August 31?
58 shares @ 86.0¢·now 90.5¢·exp Aug 31, 2026$52.62
$2.62
- YES
Will inflation reach more than 5% in 2026?
195 shares @ 18.0¢·now 14.5¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$28.24
$-6.76
- YES
Will inflation reach more than 6% in 2026?
342 shares @ 7.3¢·now 4.7¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$16.08
$-8.92
- YES
Iran invades Kuwait by August 31?
361 shares @ 4.2¢·now 3.1¢·exp Aug 31, 2026$11.37
$-3.63
- YES
Conservatives flip Liberals for Canada Seats Polls in 2026?
275 shares @ 4.7¢·now 3.4¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$9.35
$-3.65
- YES
Will the Bank of Canada increase the target for the overnight rate by 25 bps at the September interest rate announcement?
338 shares @ 6.8¢·now 2.3¢·exp Sep 2, 2026$7.77
$-15.23
Recent activity
- TRADEBUYWill inflation reach more than 4.5% in 2026?$5.19Jul 29, 18:19 UTC
- YIELD$0.01Jul 29, 00:15 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the Bank of Canada increase the target for the overnight rate by 25 bps at the September interest rate announcement?$1.05Jul 28, 19:35 UTC
- YIELD$0.01Jul 28, 00:13 UTC
- YIELD$0.01Jul 27, 00:15 UTC
- TRADEBUYBab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by September 30?$7.15Jul 26, 12:13 UTC
- YIELD$0.01Jul 26, 00:12 UTC
- TRADEBUYIran invades Kuwait by August 31?$2.00Jul 25, 00:40 UTC
- TRADESELLIsrael closes its airspace by July 31?$78.61Jul 25, 00:34 UTC
- YIELD$0.01Jul 25, 00:13 UTC
- YIELD$0.01Jul 24, 00:16 UTC
- TRADEBUYIsrael closes its airspace by July 31?$10.00Jul 23, 20:38 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the Bank of Canada increase the target for the overnight rate by 25 bps at the September interest rate announcement?$5.11Jul 23, 18:47 UTC
- TRADESELLWill WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $95 in July?$87.40Jul 23, 18:18 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill inflation reach more than 4.5% in 2026?$5.19Jul 23, 18:02 UTC
- TRADESELLBab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by August 31?$11.85Jul 23, 17:54 UTC
- TRADEBUYIran invades Kuwait by August 31?$3.00Jul 23, 17:54 UTC
- TRADEBUYIsrael closes its airspace by July 31?$20.00Jul 23, 17:53 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $95 in July?$5.04Jul 23, 17:44 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $95 in July?$5.04Jul 23, 17:35 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Wallet edge sanity
Do not mirror
16/100Treat this wallet as noise/context only until resolved history, copy-risk, and liquidity checks improve.
Closed-market sample is still too small to treat the win rate as durable.
Use this wallet as an attention signal only, then verify liquidity and resolution risk.
Many positions were entered near obvious prices, which can inflate win rate while hiding tail risk.
Required before treating wallet flow as useful
0% win rate over 3 closed markets.
A wallet trade is not useful unless a later follower could still enter after spread, slippage, and latency.
Large positions need enough depth to exit; mark-to-market PnL is not cash.
The trade still needs source, expiry, dispute, and settlement checks at the market level.
Leaderboards surface visible winners; losing or abandoned wallets disappear from attention.
Wallet intelligence filter
Watch only
0/100Wallet flow is useful for attention, but missing/review stages stop it from becoming paper attribution.
37 live trades, 0 ledger trades, copy-risk 55/100.
3 closed markets. Enough to inspect, not enough to trust.
No market-level spread or simulated execution cost is attached yet.
No source/expiry/dispute risk context is attached yet.
No market liquidity/depth context is attached yet.
No delayed-entry simulation is attached yet.
No paper receipts attribute this wallet signal to later outcomes yet.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 37
- Avg trade size
- $13.13
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- Jul 18, 00:10 UTC
- Last active
- Jul 29, 18:19 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 3 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.