Lively-Settlement
0x8616f742738a6fab4aa8f3f422e8b5aca8943496
Wallet digest
Activity score
46/100
Performance measurable
Open positions
57
Open notional
$0.00
Total PnL
$-1.6K
Realised
$189.16
Win rate
40%
15 closed
Largest open positions
showing 10 of 57- YES
Will Gold close between $4700 and $4800 at the end of 2025?
701 shares @ 0.2¢·now 0.0¢·exp Dec 31, 2025$0.00
$-1.40
- NO
Will Bitcoin dip to $80,000 in January?
537 shares @ 78.6¢·now 0.0¢·exp Feb 1, 2026$0.00
$-422.14
- YES
Will NVIDIA (NVDA) close at $180–185 in 2025?
527 shares @ 18.1¢·now 0.0¢·exp Dec 31, 2025$0.00
$-95.65
- YES
Will NVIDIA (NVDA) close at $175–180 in 2025?
458 shares @ 11.5¢·now 0.0¢·exp Dec 31, 2025$0.00
$-52.55
- YES
Will NVIDIA (NVDA) close at $170–175 in 2025?
455 shares @ 5.3¢·now 0.0¢·exp Dec 31, 2025$0.00
$-23.97
- YES
Will Gold close between $4400 and $4500 at the end of 2025?
350 shares @ 4.6¢·now 0.0¢·exp Dec 31, 2025$0.00
$-15.99
- YES
Will Gold close between $4800 and $4900 at the end of 2025?
326 shares @ 1.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Dec 31, 2025$0.00
$-3.40
- NO
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $88,000 on December 2?
324 shares @ 72.9¢·now 0.0¢·exp Dec 2, 2025$0.00
$-236.34
- YES
Will the Government shutdown end November 8-11?
284 shares @ 9.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Nov 15, 2025$0.00
$-25.57
- YES
Will the Government shutdown end November 16 or later?
250 shares @ 60.8¢·now 0.0¢·exp Nov 15, 2025$0.00
$-152.05
Recent activity
- REDEEMWill SoFi Technologies (SOFI) be added to the S&P 500 by March 31, 2026?$4.48Apr 1, 15:12 UTC
- REDEEMBased FDV above $800M one day after launch?$4.62Apr 1, 05:35 UTC
- TRADESELLWill SpaceX's market cap be greater than $1T at market close on IPO day?$39.43Mar 5, 13:02 UTC
- REDEEMKhamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran in 2026?$218.56Mar 4, 08:46 UTC
- TRADESELLWill the U.S. collect less than $100b in revenue in 2025?$1.09Feb 19, 13:59 UTC
- TRADESELLWill the U.S. collect less than $100b in revenue in 2025?$8.45Feb 19, 13:56 UTC
- TRADESELLWill SoFi Technologies (SOFI) be added to the S&P 500 by March 31, 2026?$30.92Feb 18, 13:29 UTC
- TRADESELLWill SoFi Technologies (SOFI) be added to the S&P 500 by March 31, 2026?$54.11Feb 16, 07:26 UTC
- TRADESELLWill the U.S. collect less than $100b in revenue in 2025?$0.86Feb 6, 16:57 UTC
- TRADESELLWill SpaceX's public ticker be $X?$14.55Jan 27, 01:03 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Silver (SI) settle over $70 on the final trading day of January 2026?$2.50Jan 19, 00:48 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Bitcoin reach $100,000 in January?$8.26Jan 18, 16:45 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Bitcoin reach $100,000 in January?$23.97Jan 18, 12:58 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Bitcoin reach $100,000 in January?$0.97Jan 18, 12:25 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Bitcoin reach $100,000 in January?$22.96Jan 18, 11:08 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Bitcoin reach $100,000 in January?$39.71Jan 18, 09:56 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Bitcoin dip to $80,000 in January?$23.07Jan 8, 12:02 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Bitcoin reach $110,000 in January?$1.65Jan 8, 11:55 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Bitcoin dip to $80,000 in January?$63.20Jan 8, 10:07 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Bitcoin dip to $80,000 in January?$31.60Jan 8, 10:07 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Wallet edge sanity
Needs review
37/100Useful as a watchlist input, but the edge claim still needs resolved history, cost, and source checks.
Required before treating wallet flow as useful
40% win rate over 15 closed markets.
A wallet trade is not useful unless a later follower could still enter after spread, slippage, and latency.
Large positions need enough depth to exit; mark-to-market PnL is not cash.
The trade still needs source, expiry, dispute, and settlement checks at the market level.
Leaderboards surface visible winners; losing or abandoned wallets disappear from attention.
Wallet intelligence filter
Watch only
14/100Wallet flow is useful for attention, but missing/review stages stop it from becoming paper attribution.
40 live trades, 0 ledger trades, copy-risk 41/100.
15 closed markets. Enough to inspect, not enough to trust.
No market-level spread or simulated execution cost is attached yet.
No source/expiry/dispute risk context is attached yet.
No market liquidity/depth context is attached yet.
No delayed-entry simulation is attached yet.
No paper receipts attribute this wallet signal to later outcomes yet.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 40
- Avg trade size
- $24.82
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- Dec 31, 12:46 UTC
- Last active
- Apr 1, 15:12 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 15 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.