Constant-Ceramics
0x86518611eb5868d6c2dd4cebbfaefe949f7f8a35
Wallet digest
Activity score
54/100
Performance measurable
Open positions
27
Open notional
$263.88
Total PnL
$-953.44
Realised
$-60.26
Win rate
0%
4 closed
Largest open positions
showing 10 of 27- NO
Will MegaETH perform an airdrop by June 30?
220 shares @ 43.0¢·now 85.0¢·exp Jul 1, 2026$186.89
$92.19
- NO
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026?
100 shares @ 32.0¢·now 61.5¢·exp May 31, 2026$61.50
$29.50
- YES
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?
60 shares @ 17.0¢·now 16.7¢·exp Jul 20, 2026$9.98
$-0.21
- YES
Will Harvey Weinstein be sentenced to less than 5 years in prison?
136 shares @ 1.0¢·now 2.8¢·exp Dec 31, 2025$3.80
$2.44
- YES
Will Harvey Weinstein be sentenced to between 5 and 10 years in prison?
65 shares @ 4.7¢·now 2.1¢·exp Dec 31, 2025$1.33
$-1.72
- YES
Will Chad Bianco win the California Governor Election in 2026?
100 shares @ 1.0¢·now 0.4¢·exp Nov 3, 2026$0.35
$-0.68
- YES
Will Katie Porter win the California Governor Election in 2026?
58 shares @ 11.0¢·now 0.1¢·exp Nov 3, 2026$0.03
$-6.39
- YES
Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by January 31?
1000 shares @ 4.8¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jan 31, 2026$0.00
$-48.00
- YES
Will Melania say "Career" during AI talk on Friday?
1000 shares @ 0.3¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jan 16, 2026$0.00
$-3.00
- NO
Will Freecash - Get Paid Real Money be #2 Free App in the US Apple App Store on January 23?
665 shares @ 26.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jan 23, 2026$0.00
$-172.88
Recent activity
- REDEEMWill SpaceX have exactly 14 launches in April?$3.99Jun 12, 05:11 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?$10.44Jun 11, 09:50 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill MegaETH perform an airdrop by June 30? $94.70Apr 17, 03:07 UTC
- TRADEBUYUS x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026?$32.00Apr 15, 22:09 UTC
- TRADEBUYEric Swalwell out as US Rep by May 31?$12.20Apr 13, 17:04 UTC
- TRADEBUYIran x Israel/US conflict ends by April 7?$100.00Apr 13, 02:15 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Rory McIlroy win the 2026 Masters tournament?$117.05Apr 12, 19:48 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Rory McIlroy win the 2026 Masters tournament?$13.04Apr 12, 19:48 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Rory McIlroy win the 2026 Masters tournament?$100.00Apr 12, 19:48 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Rory McIlroy win the 2026 Masters tournament?$13.30Apr 12, 19:48 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Rory McIlroy win the 2026 Masters tournament?$3.61Apr 12, 19:48 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Rory McIlroy win the 2026 Masters tournament?$923.00Apr 11, 00:29 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill SpaceX have exactly 14 launches in April?$2.99Apr 10, 07:38 UTC
- TRADEBUYTrump announces end of military operations against Iran by June 30th?$21.00Apr 10, 07:31 UTC
- TRADEBUYTrump announces end of military operations against Iran by June 30th?$30.00Apr 6, 03:32 UTC
- TRADEBUYUS forces enter Iran by April 30?$1.20Apr 6, 03:27 UTC
- REDEEMWill Kanye release BULLY by April 3?$16.00Apr 6, 03:21 UTC
- REDEEMUS forces enter Iran by March 31?$265.00Apr 6, 03:21 UTC
- TRADESELLWill turnout in the 2025 Honduran general election be less than 55%?$118.88Mar 31, 17:07 UTC
- TRADESELLWill turnout in the 2025 Honduran general election be less than 55%?$200.00Mar 31, 17:07 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 45
- Avg trade size
- $83.92
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- Feb 5, 14:54 UTC
- Last active
- Jun 12, 05:11 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 4 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.