Optimistic-Yang
0x869aa17acb1fb23cac2e4ccaed589ae3ad82bd64
Wallet digest
Activity score
49/100
Performance measurable
Open positions
24
Open notional
$743.37
Total PnL
$-1.3K
Realised
$-24.51
Win rate
0%
10 closed
Largest open positions
showing 10 of 24- YES
Will Mark Kelly win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?
4762 shares @ 2.1¢·now 3.1¢·exp Nov 7, 2028$150.00
$50.00
- YES
Will Andy Beshear win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?
4150 shares @ 2.4¢·now 2.4¢·exp Nov 7, 2028$97.52
$-2.47
- YES
Will Russia enter Kharkiv by December 31, 2026?
1603 shares @ 6.2¢·now 4.3¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$68.93
$-31.07
- YES
Will Russia invade another country in 2026?
833 shares @ 9.0¢·now 7.5¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$62.50
$-12.50
- YES
Cuban regime falls in 2026?
454 shares @ 22.0¢·now 12.5¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$56.73
$-43.27
- YES
Will Russia invade a NATO country by December 31, 2026?
1000 shares @ 7.0¢·now 5.5¢·exp Dec 31, 2025$55.00
$-15.00
- YES
Will Donald Trump win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination?
2778 shares @ 1.8¢·now 1.9¢·exp Nov 7, 2028$54.17
$4.17
- YES
Will J.B. Pritzker win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?
4202 shares @ 2.4¢·now 1.1¢·exp Nov 7, 2028$48.32
$-51.68
- YES
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel?
703 shares @ 25.3¢·now 5.5¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$38.64
$-139.36
- YES
Will Donald Trump Jr. win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination?
3125 shares @ 1.6¢·now 1.1¢·exp Nov 7, 2028$35.94
$-14.06
Recent activity
- YIELD$0.04Aug 11, 00:15 UTC
- YIELD$0.04Aug 10, 00:13 UTC
- YIELD$0.04Aug 9, 00:10 UTC
- YIELD$0.04Aug 8, 00:14 UTC
- YIELD$0.04Aug 7, 00:11 UTC
- YIELD$0.04Aug 6, 00:11 UTC
- YIELD$0.04Aug 5, 02:32 UTC
- YIELD$0.04Aug 4, 00:14 UTC
- YIELD$0.04Aug 3, 00:10 UTC
- YIELD$0.04Aug 2, 00:13 UTC
- YIELD$0.04Aug 1, 00:15 UTC
- YIELD$0.04Jul 31, 00:12 UTC
- YIELD$0.04Jul 30, 00:14 UTC
- YIELD$0.04Jul 29, 00:15 UTC
- YIELD$0.04Jul 28, 00:13 UTC
- YIELD$0.04Jul 27, 00:13 UTC
- YIELD$0.04Jul 26, 00:11 UTC
- YIELD$0.03Jul 25, 00:12 UTC
- YIELD$0.03Jul 24, 00:12 UTC
- YIELD$0.03Jul 23, 00:11 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Wallet edge sanity
Needs review
25/100Useful as a watchlist input, but the edge claim still needs resolved history, cost, and source checks.
Open-position PnL can disappear if liquidity, exit price, or final resolution changes.
Use this wallet as an attention signal only, then verify liquidity and resolution risk.
Many positions were entered near obvious prices, which can inflate win rate while hiding tail risk.
Required before treating wallet flow as useful
0% win rate over 10 closed markets.
A wallet trade is not useful unless a later follower could still enter after spread, slippage, and latency.
Large positions need enough depth to exit; mark-to-market PnL is not cash.
The trade still needs source, expiry, dispute, and settlement checks at the market level.
Leaderboards surface visible winners; losing or abandoned wallets disappear from attention.
Wallet intelligence filter
Watch only
14/100Wallet flow is useful for attention, but missing/review stages stop it from becoming paper attribution.
7 live trades, 0 ledger trades, copy-risk 50/100.
10 closed markets. Enough to inspect, not enough to trust.
No market-level spread or simulated execution cost is attached yet.
No source/expiry/dispute risk context is attached yet.
No market liquidity/depth context is attached yet.
No delayed-entry simulation is attached yet.
No paper receipts attribute this wallet signal to later outcomes yet.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 7
- Avg trade size
- $72.93
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- Jun 30, 00:11 UTC
- Last active
- Aug 11, 00:15 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 10 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.