Few-Tattler-Hashtag
0x86a642f6ee9888795c62a43ec9ca175927bc1ac6
Wallet digest
Activity score
90/100
Performance measurable
Open positions
117
Open notional
$1.0K
Total PnL
$-6.8K
Realised
$873.71
Win rate
88%
33 closed
Largest open positions
showing 10 of 117- NO
Will María Corina Machado enter Venezuela by July 31?
351 shares @ 57.4¢·now 83.0¢·exp Jul 31, 2026$291.35
$89.77
- NO
Will Samuel Alito announce his retirement by September 30, 2026?
83 shares @ 72.0¢·now 84.5¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$70.13
$10.37
- NO
Tyler Robinson convicted of homicide?
115 shares @ 52.0¢·now 54.0¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$62.10
$2.30
- YES
Will CDU win the most seats in the 2026 Berlin state elections?
354 shares @ 8.0¢·now 16.5¢·exp Sep 20, 2026$58.33
$30.05
- NO
Will Marine Le Pen be on the ballot for the 2027 French presidential election?
439 shares @ 14.0¢·now 12.5¢·exp Apr 17, 2027$54.89
$-6.59
- NO
Iran charges Hormuz fees by August 31?
111 shares @ 54.0¢·now 48.5¢·exp Aug 31, 2026$53.84
$-6.11
- NO
Will Marine Le Pen win the 2027 French presidential election?
71 shares @ 74.0¢·now 69.8¢·exp Apr 30, 2027$49.52
$-3.02
- NO
Will John Healey be the next Defence Secretary of the UK in 2026?
236 shares @ 22.0¢·now 20.5¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$48.38
$-3.54
- YES
Tamas Sulyok out as President of Hungary by July 31?
61 shares @ 65.5¢·now 73.5¢·exp Jul 31, 2026$44.84
$4.88
- NO
Kash Patel out by December 31?
64 shares @ 51.0¢·now 52.5¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$33.60
$0.96
Recent activity
- TRADEBUYIran military action against a Gulf State on July 11?$0.59Jul 14, 01:48 UTC
- TRADEBUYTamas Sulyok out as President of Hungary by July 31?$20.46Jul 14, 01:44 UTC
- MAKER_REBATE$1.59Jul 14, 00:45 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill John Healey be the next Defence Secretary of the UK in 2026?$8.80Jul 14, 00:09 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill John Healey be the next Defence Secretary of the UK in 2026?$0.87Jul 14, 00:09 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill John Healey be the next Defence Secretary of the UK in 2026?$4.40Jul 14, 00:09 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill John Healey be the next Defence Secretary of the UK in 2026?$0.38Jul 14, 00:09 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill John Healey be the next Defence Secretary of the UK in 2026?$37.47Jul 14, 00:09 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill there be no next Foreign Secretary of the UK in 2026?$18.80Jul 14, 00:09 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Robert Mitchell win the 2026 Cornwall-Meadowbank PEI Legislative Assembly by-election?$9.99Jul 13, 23:31 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Robert Mitchell win the 2026 Cornwall-Meadowbank PEI Legislative Assembly by-election?$10.00Jul 13, 23:31 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Tayte Willows win the 2026 Cornwall-Meadowbank PEI Legislative Assembly by-election?$18.00Jul 13, 23:31 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Tayte Willows win the 2026 Cornwall-Meadowbank PEI Legislative Assembly by-election?$14.96Jul 13, 23:31 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Qatar by September 30, 2026?$1.01Jul 13, 23:14 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the US announce withdrawal from MOU negotiations by August 31?$2.24Jul 13, 20:14 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Sara Rodriguez win the 2026 Wisconsin Governor Democratic primary election?$60.00Jul 13, 19:18 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Pamela Evette be the new Republican nominee for Senate in South Carolina?$51.00Jul 13, 14:59 UTC
- TRADEBUYIran charges Hormuz fees by August 31?$59.94Jul 13, 14:37 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the US announce a blockade on Iran by December 31?$89.76Jul 13, 14:16 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the US announce a blockade on Iran by December 31?$59.66Jul 13, 14:16 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Wallet edge sanity
Needs review
77/100Useful as a watchlist input, but the edge claim still needs resolved history, cost, and source checks.
Open-position PnL can disappear if liquidity, exit price, or final resolution changes.
Required before treating wallet flow as useful
88% win rate over 33 closed markets.
A wallet trade is not useful unless a later follower could still enter after spread, slippage, and latency.
Large positions need enough depth to exit; mark-to-market PnL is not cash.
The trade still needs source, expiry, dispute, and settlement checks at the market level.
Leaderboards surface visible winners; losing or abandoned wallets disappear from attention.
Wallet intelligence filter
Watch only
29/100Wallet flow is useful for attention, but missing/review stages stop it from becoming paper attribution.
46 live trades, 0 ledger trades, copy-risk 40/100.
33 closed markets, 88% win rate.
No market-level spread or simulated execution cost is attached yet.
No source/expiry/dispute risk context is attached yet.
No market liquidity/depth context is attached yet.
No delayed-entry simulation is attached yet.
No paper receipts attribute this wallet signal to later outcomes yet.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 46
- Avg trade size
- $42.99
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- Jul 7, 17:23 UTC
- Last active
- Jul 14, 01:48 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 33 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.