Chubby-Prior
0x879752bca887bc247ba883a52bc45e9c6be6bbbe
Wallet digest
Activity score
68/100
Performance measurable
Open positions
200
Open notional
$43.7K
Total PnL
$-33.1K
Realised
$-677.70
Win rate
32%
44 closed
Largest open positions
showing 10 of 200- NO
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?
19458 shares @ 48.5¢·now 48.5¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$9.4K
$-0.76
- NO
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by August 31?
8598 shares @ 86.2¢·now 93.5¢·exp Aug 31, 2026$8.0K
$627.95
- NO
Will FISA Section 702 reauthorization become law this year?
4557 shares @ 46.5¢·now 81.5¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$3.7K
$1.6K
- NO
Will the Republican Party hold below 190 House seats after the 2026 midterm elections?
4269 shares @ 73.6¢·now 78.0¢·exp Nov 3, 2026$3.3K
$187.68
- NO
Will 75-99 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between July 20-July 26?
1270 shares @ 92.4¢·now 87.9¢·exp Jul 26, 2026$1.1K
$-56.84
- NO
Will Ohio (Special) have the closest Senate race in 2026?
1156 shares @ 79.4¢·now 90.5¢·exp Nov 3, 2026$1.0K
$128.55
- NO
Another GTA VI trailer released by July 31?
1030 shares @ 90.0¢·now 93.0¢·exp Jul 31, 2026$957.90
$31.15
- NO
Nigel Farage out as Reform UK leader in 2026?
1059 shares @ 82.3¢·now 81.5¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$862.98
$-8.78
- NO
Will Michigan have the closest Senate race in 2026?
897 shares @ 82.7¢·now 95.5¢·exp Nov 3, 2026$856.35
$114.69
- NO
Will 100 or more ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between July 27-August 2?
974 shares @ 89.0¢·now 87.5¢·exp Aug 2, 2026$852.63
$-14.29
Recent activity
- TRADEBUYWill over 50 Senators vote for the Clarity Act?$107.80Jul 30, 15:03 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Jerry Moran vote "Yea" on the Clarity Act?$17.26Jul 30, 13:56 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Lisa Blunt Rochester vote "Yea" on the Clarity Act?$63.98Jul 30, 13:36 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Josh Hawley vote "Yea" on the Clarity Act?$38.26Jul 30, 13:35 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Jerry Moran vote "Yea" on the Clarity Act?$80.15Jul 30, 13:34 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill 25-49 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between July 27-August 2?$2.07Jul 29, 18:13 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill 25-49 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between July 27-August 2?$3.68Jul 29, 16:34 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill fewer than 25 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between July 27-August 2?$0.36Jul 29, 16:15 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill 100 or more ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between July 27-August 2?$93.60Jul 29, 16:14 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill 75-99 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between July 27-August 2?$84.00Jul 29, 16:14 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill 25-49 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between July 27-August 2?$60.67Jul 29, 16:13 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill 25-49 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between July 27-August 2?$118.41Jul 29, 16:13 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill fewer than 25 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between July 27-August 2?$7.10Jul 29, 16:13 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill fewer than 25 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between July 27-August 2?$6.32Jul 29, 16:13 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the Republican Party win the NY-02 House seat?$43.45Jul 29, 04:12 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the Democratic Party win the NY-02 House seat?$116.81Jul 29, 04:10 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the Republican Party win the NY-02 House seat?$160.44Jul 29, 04:09 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the Democratic Party win the NY-02 House seat?$168.80Jul 29, 04:09 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the Republican Party win the NY-02 House seat?$160.44Jul 29, 04:08 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Michigan have the closest Senate race in 2026?$746.79Jul 29, 04:07 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Wallet edge sanity
Needs review
53/100Useful as a watchlist input, but the edge claim still needs resolved history, cost, and source checks.
Open-position PnL can disappear if liquidity, exit price, or final resolution changes.
Many positions were entered near obvious prices, which can inflate win rate while hiding tail risk.
Required before treating wallet flow as useful
32% win rate over 44 closed markets.
A wallet trade is not useful unless a later follower could still enter after spread, slippage, and latency.
Large positions need enough depth to exit; mark-to-market PnL is not cash.
The trade still needs source, expiry, dispute, and settlement checks at the market level.
Leaderboards surface visible winners; losing or abandoned wallets disappear from attention.
Wallet intelligence filter
Watch only
29/100Wallet flow is useful for attention, but missing/review stages stop it from becoming paper attribution.
50 live trades, 0 ledger trades, copy-risk 41/100.
44 closed markets, 32% win rate.
No market-level spread or simulated execution cost is attached yet.
No source/expiry/dispute risk context is attached yet.
No market liquidity/depth context is attached yet.
No delayed-entry simulation is attached yet.
No paper receipts attribute this wallet signal to later outcomes yet.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 50
- Avg trade size
- $78.83
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- Jul 27, 23:57 UTC
- Last active
- Jul 30, 15:03 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 44 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.