Vague-Speech
0x88e2b1b6c7847828fc91af43aba2fee07fb07489
Wallet digest
Activity score
92/100
Performance: thin sample
Open positions
16
Open notional
$160.4K
Total PnL
$5.5K
Realised
$950.08
Win rate
n/a
too few closed
Largest open positions
showing 10 of 16- NO
Will JD Vance win the 2028 US Presidential Election?
128000 shares @ 50.0¢·now 80.0¢·exp Nov 7, 2028$102.3K
$38.3K
- YES
Will JD Vance win the 2028 US Presidential Election?
128000 shares @ 50.0¢·now 20.1¢·exp Nov 7, 2028$25.7K
$-38.3K
- NO
US-Iran Final Nuclear Deal by August 31, 2026?
10500 shares @ 77.0¢·now 93.5¢·exp Aug 31, 2026$9.8K
$1.7K
- NO
Will a new country join the Abraham Accords before 2027?
10193 shares @ 56.5¢·now 65.3¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$6.7K
$901.26
- NO
Will Saudi Arabia join the Abraham Accords before 2027?
6252 shares @ 70.0¢·now 92.5¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$5.8K
$1.4K
- NO
IAEA visits Isfahan, Fordow, or Natanz nuclear site by October 31?
5697 shares @ 79.9¢·now 86.5¢·exp Oct 31, 2026$4.9K
$373.79
- NO
IAEA visits Isfahan, Fordow, or Natanz nuclear site by December 31?
5200 shares @ 72.0¢·now 71.5¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$3.7K
$-26.00
- NO
Israel x Hezbollah diplomatic meeting by August 31, 2026?
733 shares @ 93.0¢·now 96.4¢·exp Jul 31, 2026$706.94
$24.93
- NO
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026?
388 shares @ 85.0¢·now 99.8¢·exp Jul 31, 2026$387.16
$57.25
- NO
Will Trump talk to Mojtaba Khamenei by December 31?
245 shares @ 90.8¢·now 92.2¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$226.23
$3.44
Recent activity
- YIELD$12.86Jul 29, 00:10 UTC
- REDEEMIsrael x Iran ceasefire continues through July 25?$5.0KJul 28, 22:34 UTC
- MERGEWill JD Vance win the 2028 US Presidential Election?$15.0KJul 28, 18:57 UTC
- MERGEWill JD Vance win the 2028 US Presidential Election?$10.0KJul 28, 10:53 UTC
- TRADEBUYIAEA visits Isfahan, Fordow, or Natanz nuclear site by December 31?$3.7KJul 28, 10:53 UTC
- TRADEBUYIAEA visits Isfahan, Fordow, or Natanz nuclear site by October 31?$4.6KJul 28, 10:53 UTC
- YIELD$13.62Jul 28, 00:14 UTC
- REWARD$0.49Jul 27, 00:15 UTC
- YIELD$15.40Jul 27, 00:11 UTC
- REWARD$1.49Jul 27, 00:00 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill there be no Likud party primary by the next Knesset Election?$64.16Jul 26, 13:43 UTC
- MERGEWill JD Vance win the 2028 US Presidential Election?$60.0KJul 26, 07:35 UTC
- YIELD$8.84Jul 26, 00:10 UTC
- SPLITWill JD Vance win the 2028 US Presidential Election?$130.0KJul 25, 20:50 UTC
- TRADESELLStrait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31?$42.3KJul 25, 17:21 UTC
- TRADESELLStrait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31?$1.08Jul 25, 17:18 UTC
- TRADESELLStrait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31?$1.07Jul 25, 17:10 UTC
- TRADESELLStrait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31?$1.02Jul 25, 17:02 UTC
- TRADESELLUS announces halt in Iran offensive operations by August 15?$433.20Jul 25, 17:00 UTC
- TRADESELLStrait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31?$1.00Jul 25, 16:53 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentLedger volume
$17.0K
Trades
2
Buy share
43%
Window
May 22, 17:40 UTC → May 28, 15:13 UTC
- BUYUS x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?$7.2K@89¢May 28, 15:13 UTC
- SELLUS x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?$9.7K@24¢May 22, 17:32 UTC
Wallet edge sanity
Do not mirror
0/100Treat this wallet as noise/context only until resolved history, copy-risk, and liquidity checks improve.
Win rate is hidden until at least 3 closed markets exist for this wallet.
Open-position PnL can disappear if liquidity, exit price, or final resolution changes.
Large size, concentration, or thin history makes this wallet unsafe to imitate.
Required before treating wallet flow as useful
Only 2 closed markets; headline win rate is intentionally hidden.
A wallet trade is not useful unless a later follower could still enter after spread, slippage, and latency.
Large positions need enough depth to exit; mark-to-market PnL is not cash.
The trade still needs source, expiry, dispute, and settlement checks at the market level.
Leaderboards surface visible winners; losing or abandoned wallets disappear from attention.
Wallet intelligence filter
Blocked
0/100Wallet flow is blocked as an intelligence signal until hard failures are fixed.
Wallet activity exists, but copy-risk is too high for interpretation.
Too few closed markets. Do not infer edge from open PnL or leaderboard rank.
No market-level spread or simulated execution cost is attached yet.
No source/expiry/dispute risk context is attached yet.
No market liquidity/depth context is attached yet.
No delayed-entry simulation is attached yet.
No paper receipts attribute this wallet signal to later outcomes yet.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
43%
Sample
low
2 ledger trades
Top market concentration
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?
$17.0K · 100% of recorded whale volume
Recorded market concentration
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 36
- Avg trade size
- $2.9K
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- Jul 24, 19:06 UTC
- Last active
- Jul 29, 00:10 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 2 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.