Will a new country join the Abraham Accords before 2027?
Probability
55¢
1h
-0.1pp
24h
-2.5pp
24h Vol
$1.4K
Liquidity
$29.6K
Probability (last 7 days)
+4.9pp 7dWhy did it move?
Structured · 2 factors- 1
Down 2pp over 24h
Now 55¢; -0.1pp in the last hour.
- 2
Resolution-risk signal firing
Expires in 5983h with open resolution ambiguity.
What to track next
- Verify the resolution source on this page — exchange feed, official release, news consensus — before treating any move as new information.
Verification actions only — never trade recommendations.
Each factor is grounded in a single named metric you can verify on this page — probability, volume, liquidity, signal, resolution state. No predictions, no prose hallucinations.
AI prose summary
Loading prose summary — see the structured breakdown above.
Prose narration of the same metrics shown in the structured breakdown above. Cites only the market data on this page — no news, no predictions. Use the structured factors as the canonical answer; this is here for readability.
Timeline — news, trades, signals, price moves
- 0s agoResolveLOW
Market resolves in 5983.1h
- 16:55SignalLOW
Signal · Resolution risk
Expires in 5983h with open resolution ambiguity.
- 21:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability up 6.8pp
to 58¢
- 20:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability up 6.3pp
to 58¢
- 18:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability up 6.6pp
to 58¢
- 17:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability up 7.4pp
to 59¢
- 1d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability up 7.2pp
to 59¢
- 1d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability up 7.0pp
to 59¢
- 1d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability up 5.6pp
to 57¢
- 1d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability up 5.2pp
to 57¢
- 1d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability up 5.2pp
to 57¢
- 1d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability up 5.1pp
to 57¢
- 1d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability up 5.1pp
to 57¢
- 2d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability up 3.8pp
to 56¢
- 2d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability up 4.3pp
to 56¢
- 2d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability up 3.5pp
to 55¢
- 2d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability up 3.7pp
to 55¢
- 2d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability up 4.7pp
to 56¢
- 2d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability up 3.1pp
to 54¢
- 2d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability up 5.1pp
to 55¢
- 2d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability up 5.2pp
to 55¢
- 2d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability up 5.8pp
to 56¢
- 2d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability up 8.3pp
to 58¢
- 2d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability up 7.1pp
to 58¢
Active signals
Recent Trades
No recent trades visible from the Data API for this market.
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Market Description
This market will resolve to "Yes" if any country not already a part of the Abraham Accords formally signs a normalization agreement with Israel under the framework of the Abraham Accords by December 31, 2026 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". A formal signing refers to an official agreement between Israel and another country that is publicly acknowledged by both governments and clearly attributed to the Abraham Accords or their continuation. Countries already part of the Abraham Accords as of June 26, 2025—including the United Arab Emirates, Bahrain, Morocco, and Sudan—will not count. The resolution source will be official government statements, however a consensus for credible reporting may also be used.
Resolution & Risk
LOW risk- End date
- Dec 31, 2026
- UMA status
- n/a
- Resolution source
- credible reportingNews consensusextracted · medium
- Market type
- Binary
- No obvious resolution-risk signals in metadata.
Alerts
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