Circular-Constraint
0x8920441216c9c06c0706518a87172410df07bdb2
Wallet digest
Activity score
100/100
Performance measurable
Open positions
32
Open notional
$113.27
Total PnL
$185.66
Realised
$365.69
Win rate
52%
27 closed
Largest open positions
showing 10 of 32- YES
Iran closes its airspace by June 15?
50 shares @ 9.6¢·now 100.0¢·exp Jun 15, 2026$50.01
$45.23
- YES
Israel x Iran ceasefire broken by June 30, 2026?
30 shares @ 67.0¢·now 100.0¢·exp Mar 31, 2026$30.00
$9.90
- YES
Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran in 2026?
7 shares @ 60.4¢·now 100.0¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$7.00
$2.77
- YES
US strikes Iran by June 30, 2026?
6 shares @ 42.1¢·now 100.0¢·exp Jun 30, 2026$6.42
$3.72
- NO
XRP all time high by September 30, 2026?
4 shares @ 86.0¢·now 99.0¢·exp Oct 1, 2026$3.75
$0.49
- NO
Houthi strike on Israel by March 15, 2026?
4 shares @ 82.3¢·now 100.0¢·exp Mar 31, 2026$3.65
$0.65
- NO
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30?
3 shares @ 65.1¢·now 100.0¢·exp Jun 30, 2026$3.07
$1.07
- YES
Will Russia capture all of Rodynske by April 30?
2 shares @ 93.8¢·now 100.0¢·exp Mar 31, 2026$2.35
$0.15
- YES
Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by June 30?
2 shares @ 67.1¢·now 100.0¢·exp Jun 30, 2026$1.73
$0.57
- NO
Kevin Warsh confirmed as Fed Chair by May 1?
2 shares @ 70.0¢·now 100.0¢·exp May 15, 2026$1.67
$0.50
Recent activity
- TRADEBUYIran full airspace closure by July 15?$2.50Jul 4, 08:07 UTC
- TRADESELLIsrael closes its airspace by July 15?$42.75Jul 2, 17:47 UTC
- TRADESELLIsrael closes its airspace by July 15?$7.13Jul 2, 17:47 UTC
- TRADEBUYIsrael closes its airspace by July 15?$26.10Jul 2, 16:47 UTC
- TRADEBUYIsrael closes its airspace by July 15?$42.00Jul 2, 16:47 UTC
- TRADESELLIsrael closes its airspace by July 15?$52.50Jun 30, 14:16 UTC
- TRADEBUYIsrael closes its airspace by July 15?$60.00Jun 30, 13:20 UTC
- TRADESELLKharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30?$13.55Jun 5, 22:11 UTC
- TRADESELLKharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30?$1.61Jun 5, 22:11 UTC
- TRADESELLIran closes its airspace by June 15?$48.15Jun 5, 21:53 UTC
- TRADEBUYKharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30?$15.50Jun 5, 21:11 UTC
- TRADEBUYIran closes its airspace by June 15?$21.12Jun 5, 20:49 UTC
- TRADEBUYIran closes its airspace by June 15?$8.35Jun 5, 20:49 UTC
- TRADEBUYIran closes its airspace by June 15?$6.79Jun 5, 20:49 UTC
- TRADESELLIran closes its airspace by June 15?$142.00Jun 3, 20:58 UTC
- TRADEBUYIran closes its airspace by June 15?$147.00Jun 3, 20:16 UTC
- TRADESELLIran closes its airspace by May 31?$23.40May 31, 12:10 UTC
- TRADEBUYIran closes its airspace by May 31?$32.00May 31, 11:03 UTC
- TRADEBUYIran closes its airspace by May 31?$3.90May 31, 11:00 UTC
- TRADESELLIsrael closes its airspace by May 31?$4.00May 30, 11:01 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Wallet edge sanity
Needs review
53/100Useful as a watchlist input, but the edge claim still needs resolved history, cost, and source checks.
Required before treating wallet flow as useful
52% win rate over 27 closed markets.
A wallet trade is not useful unless a later follower could still enter after spread, slippage, and latency.
Large positions need enough depth to exit; mark-to-market PnL is not cash.
The trade still needs source, expiry, dispute, and settlement checks at the market level.
Leaderboards surface visible winners; losing or abandoned wallets disappear from attention.
Wallet intelligence filter
Watch only
14/100Wallet flow is useful for attention, but missing/review stages stop it from becoming paper attribution.
50 live trades, 0 ledger trades, copy-risk 46/100.
27 closed markets. Enough to inspect, not enough to trust.
No market-level spread or simulated execution cost is attached yet.
No source/expiry/dispute risk context is attached yet.
No market liquidity/depth context is attached yet.
No delayed-entry simulation is attached yet.
No paper receipts attribute this wallet signal to later outcomes yet.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 50
- Avg trade size
- $66.37
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- May 25, 12:52 UTC
- Last active
- Jul 4, 08:07 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 27 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.