Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by June 30?
Probability
100¢
1h
+0.0pp
24h
+0.0pp
24h Vol
$629.0K
Liquidity
$3.1M
Probability (last 7 days)
+2.4pp 7dWhy did it move?
Without an Anthropic API key we show a heuristic summary derived from the market metrics.
Timeline — news, trades, signals, price moves
- 0s agoResolveLOW
Market resolves in 1589.8h
- 18:12SignalHIGH
Signal · Clustered NO flow
25 trades ($5,882) aligned on NO across 22 wallets in the last 30 min.
- 18:12SignalLOW
Signal · Resolution risk
Expires in 1590h with open resolution ambiguity.
- 18:07TradeMEDIUM
Motionless-Artifact · SELL YES $5.3K
@ 88¢
- 19:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability up 3.9pp
to 100¢
- 1d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability up 3.5pp
to 100¢
- 1d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability up 3.6pp
to 100¢
- 1d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability up 6.3pp
to 100¢
- 1d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability up 6.6pp
to 100¢
- 1d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability up 7.0pp
to 100¢
- 1d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability up 8.3pp
to 100¢
- 1d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability up 9.3pp
to 100¢
- 1d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability up 7.9pp
to 100¢
- 1d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability up 10.1pp
to 100¢
- 2d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability up 12.8pp
to 100¢
- 2d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability up 11.1pp
to 100¢
- 2d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability up 10.1pp
to 100¢
- 2d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability up 6.2pp
to 100¢
- 2d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability up 6.5pp
to 100¢
- 2d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability up 6.2pp
to 100¢
- 2d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability up 5.8pp
to 100¢
- 2d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability up 7.1pp
to 100¢
- 2d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability up 7.3pp
to 100¢
- 2d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability up 8.7pp
to 100¢
- 2d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability up 10.2pp
to 100¢
- 2d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability up 9.3pp
to 100¢
- 2d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability up 7.6pp
to 100¢
- 2d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability up 7.7pp
to 100¢
- 2d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability up 7.6pp
to 100¢
- 2d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability up 8.7pp
to 100¢
Active signals
Recent Trades
25- SELLUP5m ago
- BUYNATUS VINCERE5m ago
- BUYDOWN5m ago
- BUYDOWN5m ago
- BUYDOWN5m ago
- SELLYES5m ago
- BUYYES5m ago
- BUYDOWN5m ago
- BUYDOWN5m ago
- BUYDOWN5m ago
- BUYNATUS VINCERE5m ago
- BUYYES5m ago
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Market Description
This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is a continuous 14-day period without any qualifying military action between Iran, and Israel and the United States that begins at any time between market creation and the specified end date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". The 14-day period may begin at any time between the creation of this market and the specified end date (ET), and must continue uninterrupted through 12:00 PM ET on the 14th calendar day after the strike is confirmed. A "military action" is defined as any use of force by Iran, or Israel and the United States against the other’s soil, or official embassies or consulates, that is either officially acknowledged by the acting government or confirmed through a clear consensus of credible reporting. This includes, but is not limited to, airstrikes, naval attacks, and ground incursions. Cyberattacks, sanctions, and diplomatic actions do not count. Only actions by Iranian forces explicitly claimed by the Islamic Republic of Iran, or confirmed to have originated from Iranian territory will qualify as Iranian military actions. Attacks on Israel or the US by proxy forces (i.e. Hezbollah, Houthis, etc.) will not count.
Resolution & Risk
MEDIUM risk- End date
- Jun 30, 2026
- Resolution source
- UMA status
- disputed
- Market type
- Binary
- UMA status: disputed
- No primary resolution source listed — read the market rules.
Alerts
In-app banners work now. Email / Telegram / Discord delivery lands when the backend alert dispatcher ships (needs RESEND_API_KEY + per-user webhook storage).
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