Closed-Manipulation
0x8920acc1e77e82e571488c979dd0a45479dd3b19
Wallet digest
Activity score
47/100
Performance measurable
Open positions
18
Open notional
$58.34
Total PnL
$-104.35
Realised
$-19.14
Win rate
11%
9 closed
Largest open positions
showing 10 of 18- YES
Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?
283 shares @ 22.7¢·now 15.6¢·exp Nov 7, 2028$44.01
$-20.18
- YES
Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 US Presidential Election?
169 shares @ 11.8¢·now 8.5¢·exp Nov 7, 2028$14.32
$-5.68
- NO
Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by April 7?
1000 shares @ 0.1¢·now 0.0¢·exp Apr 7, 2026$0.00
$-1.00
- YES
Will Trump speak to Mojtaba Khamenei in July?
235 shares @ 1.3¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jul 31, 2026$0.00
$-3.00
- NO
Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by April 15?
174 shares @ 14.6¢·now 0.0¢·exp Apr 15, 2026$0.00
$-25.45
- NO
Will Trump speak to Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva in May?
121 shares @ 1.7¢·now 0.0¢·exp May 31, 2026$0.00
$-2.00
- YES
Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by April 15th?
26 shares @ 19.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Apr 15, 2026$0.00
$-5.00
- YES
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-07-03?
23 shares @ 4.4¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jul 3, 2026$0.00
$-1.00
- YES
Will Iran announce withdrawal from MOU negotiations by July 31?
14 shares @ 21.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jul 31, 2026$0.00
$-3.00
- YES
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?
10 shares @ 31.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp May 31, 2026$0.00
$-3.00
Recent activity
- YIELD$0.01Aug 17, 00:14 UTC
- YIELD$0.01Aug 16, 00:12 UTC
- YIELD$0.01Aug 15, 00:12 UTC
- YIELD$0.01Aug 14, 00:15 UTC
- YIELD$0.01Aug 13, 00:11 UTC
- YIELD$0.01Aug 12, 00:12 UTC
- YIELD$0.01Aug 11, 00:12 UTC
- YIELD$0.01Aug 10, 00:13 UTC
- YIELD$0.01Aug 9, 00:10 UTC
- YIELD$0.01Aug 8, 00:10 UTC
- YIELD$0.01Aug 7, 00:14 UTC
- YIELD$0.01Aug 6, 00:13 UTC
- YIELD$0.01Aug 5, 02:34 UTC
- YIELD$0.01Aug 4, 00:11 UTC
- YIELD$0.01Aug 3, 00:13 UTC
- YIELD$0.01Aug 2, 00:11 UTC
- YIELD$0.01Aug 1, 00:15 UTC
- YIELD$0.01Jul 31, 00:12 UTC
- YIELD$0.01Jul 30, 00:15 UTC
- YIELD$0.01Jul 29, 00:14 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Wallet edge sanity
Do not mirror
24/100Treat this wallet as noise/context only until resolved history, copy-risk, and liquidity checks improve.
Closed-market sample is still too small to treat the win rate as durable.
Use this wallet as an attention signal only, then verify liquidity and resolution risk.
Required before treating wallet flow as useful
11% win rate over 9 closed markets.
A wallet trade is not useful unless a later follower could still enter after spread, slippage, and latency.
Large positions need enough depth to exit; mark-to-market PnL is not cash.
The trade still needs source, expiry, dispute, and settlement checks at the market level.
Leaderboards surface visible winners; losing or abandoned wallets disappear from attention.
Wallet intelligence filter
Watch only
0/100Wallet flow is useful for attention, but missing/review stages stop it from becoming paper attribution.
8 live trades, 0 ledger trades, copy-risk 68/100.
9 closed markets. Enough to inspect, not enough to trust.
No market-level spread or simulated execution cost is attached yet.
No source/expiry/dispute risk context is attached yet.
No market liquidity/depth context is attached yet.
No delayed-entry simulation is attached yet.
No paper receipts attribute this wallet signal to later outcomes yet.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 8
- Avg trade size
- $13.87
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- Jul 7, 06:55 UTC
- Last active
- Aug 17, 00:14 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 9 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.