Male-Cacao
0x8929a63143fba9416c8e0d3c96388b429c47733e
Wallet digest
Activity score
100/100
Performance measurable
Open positions
103
Open notional
$2.7K
Total PnL
$592.86
Realised
$1.3K
Win rate
63%
56 closed
Largest open positions
showing 10 of 103- NO
Will Michael Carbonara be the FL-22 Republican nominee?
1169 shares @ 33.3¢·now 31.5¢·exp Aug 18, 2026$368.25
$-20.80
- NO
Will Indiana Fever win the 2026 WNBA Finals?
277 shares @ 90.0¢·now 90.5¢·exp Oct 31, 2026$250.69
$1.38
- NO
Will the Republican Party win the IL-04 House seat?
158 shares @ 96.1¢·now 94.0¢·exp Nov 3, 2026$148.44
$-3.40
- NO
Will the Republican Party win the NC-03 House seat?
994 shares @ 15.0¢·now 14.5¢·exp Nov 3, 2026$144.11
$-4.97
- YES
Will the Democratic Party win the PA-03 House seat?
137 shares @ 94.0¢·now 95.3¢·exp Nov 3, 2026$130.63
$1.85
- YES
Will S&P 500 (SPY) hit (LOW) $730 in July?
300 shares @ 43.0¢·now 28.5¢·exp Aug 1, 2026$85.47
$-43.53
- NO
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 98-99°F on July 29?
116 shares @ 70.2¢·now 67.5¢·exp Jul 29, 2026$78.31
$-3.08
- NO
Will Marco Rubio win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination?
96 shares @ 72.3¢·now 73.0¢·exp Nov 7, 2028$69.94
$0.72
- LG TWINS
KBO: LG Twins vs. Samsung Lions
125 shares @ 35.8¢·now 51.5¢·exp Apr 24, 2026$64.51
$19.67
- NO
Will the highest temperature in Mexico City be 25°C on July 29?
120 shares @ 51.8¢·now 51.0¢·exp Jul 29, 2026$61.20
$-1.00
Recent activity
- TRADESELLWill Apple be the second-largest company in the world by market cap on July 31?$3.40Jul 29, 02:51 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Paris be 39°C on July 29?$0.40Jul 29, 02:16 UTC
- REDEEMMubadala Citi DC Open: Trevor Svajda vs Jakub Mensik$0.00Jul 29, 02:16 UTC
- TRADESELLWill the highest temperature in Paris be 36°C on July 29?$2.85Jul 29, 02:03 UTC
- TRADESELLWill the highest temperature in Paris be 38°C on July 29?$6.77Jul 29, 01:55 UTC
- REDEEMArizona Diamondbacks vs. Pittsburgh Pirates: O/U 8.5$0.00Jul 29, 01:45 UTC
- TRADESELLWill the highest temperature in Paris be 38°C on July 29?$2.10Jul 29, 01:38 UTC
- TRADESELLWill the highest temperature in Paris be 38°C on July 29?$22.96Jul 29, 01:38 UTC
- TRADESELLWill the highest temperature in Paris be 37°C on July 29?$9.20Jul 29, 01:38 UTC
- TRADESELLWill the highest temperature in Paris be 39°C on July 29?$40.32Jul 29, 01:38 UTC
- REDEEMCincinnati Reds winning after 5 innings?$0.00Jul 29, 01:30 UTC
- REDEEMCincinnati Reds winning after 5 innings?$16.43Jul 29, 01:30 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Belinda Keiser be the FL-22 Republican nominee?$55.48Jul 29, 01:22 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Donald Trump publicly insult someone on July 28, 2026?$2.42Jul 29, 01:13 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Donald Trump publicly insult someone on July 28, 2026?$3.60Jul 29, 01:13 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Paris be 39°C on July 29?$12.07Jul 29, 00:47 UTC
- MAKER_REBATE$13.78Jul 29, 00:45 UTC
- REDEEMCA San Lorenzo de Almagro vs. CA Gimnasia y Esgrima de Mendoza: CA San Lorenzo de Almagro O/U 1.5$0.00Jul 29, 00:30 UTC
- YIELD$0.03Jul 29, 00:15 UTC
- TRADESELLWill the highest temperature in Paris be 38°C on July 29?$8.76Jul 29, 00:10 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Wallet edge sanity
Needs review
75/100Useful as a watchlist input, but the edge claim still needs resolved history, cost, and source checks.
Many positions were entered near obvious prices, which can inflate win rate while hiding tail risk.
Required before treating wallet flow as useful
63% win rate over 56 closed markets.
A wallet trade is not useful unless a later follower could still enter after spread, slippage, and latency.
Large positions need enough depth to exit; mark-to-market PnL is not cash.
The trade still needs source, expiry, dispute, and settlement checks at the market level.
Leaderboards surface visible winners; losing or abandoned wallets disappear from attention.
Wallet intelligence filter
Watch only
29/100Wallet flow is useful for attention, but missing/review stages stop it from becoming paper attribution.
39 live trades, 0 ledger trades, copy-risk 34/100.
56 closed markets, 63% win rate.
No market-level spread or simulated execution cost is attached yet.
No source/expiry/dispute risk context is attached yet.
No market liquidity/depth context is attached yet.
No delayed-entry simulation is attached yet.
No paper receipts attribute this wallet signal to later outcomes yet.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 39
- Avg trade size
- $17.58
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- Jul 28, 21:06 UTC
- Last active
- Jul 29, 02:51 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 56 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.