Earnest-Treatment
0x89595e1d2e906d238fa8190fdd49215cc16150f8
Wallet digest
Activity score
75/100
Performance measurable
Open positions
25
Open notional
$1.2K
Total PnL
$-618.64
Realised
$53.13
Win rate
50%
8 closed
Largest open positions
showing 10 of 25- NO
Will the Denver Broncos be eliminated in the Super Bowl?
603 shares @ 83.0¢·now 100.0¢·exp Feb 22, 2026$603.00
$102.51
- NO
Kraken IPO closing market cap above $26B?
141 shares @ 70.7¢·now 92.5¢·exp Jan 1, 2027$130.43
$30.81
- NO
Will the New Orleans Pelicans have the worst record in the NBA?
123 shares @ 86.3¢·now 100.0¢·exp Apr 12, 2026$123.00
$16.85
- NO
Will Apple release a new product line before 2027?
154 shares @ 34.0¢·now 70.5¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$108.85
$56.36
- YES
Will a new Cabinet of the Netherlands be sworn in by March 31, 2026?
103 shares @ 87.0¢·now 100.0¢·exp Jul 31, 2026$103.00
$13.39
- YES
Will ETHGAS launch a token by December 31, 2026?
48 shares @ 88.0¢·now 100.0¢·exp Jan 1, 2027$48.00
$5.76
- NO
Will Trump pardon Elon Musk before 2027?
30 shares @ 95.0¢·now 98.6¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$29.58
$1.08
- YES
Theo FDV above $700M one day after launch?
302 shares @ 9.0¢·now 9.2¢·exp Jan 1, 2027$27.78
$0.60
- YES
Once Upon a Farm IPO before 2027?
27 shares @ 83.0¢·now 100.0¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$27.00
$4.59
- YES
Will Anthropic have a #1 AI model by June 30?
19 shares @ 33.0¢·now 100.0¢·exp Jun 30, 2026$19.00
$12.73
Recent activity
- TRADESELLWill Polymarket mindshare hit 80%?$4.94Feb 8, 19:55 UTC
- TRADESELLRamp IPO before 2027?$7.48Feb 8, 18:06 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Apple release a new product line before 2027?$0.85Feb 8, 17:44 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Apple release a new product line before 2027?$0.44Feb 8, 17:42 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Apple release a new product line before 2027?$4.93Feb 8, 17:41 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Apple release a new product line before 2027?$11.39Feb 8, 17:40 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Tom Begich win the 2026 Alaska governor election?$3.12Feb 8, 16:27 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Tom Begich win the 2026 Alaska governor election?$21.32Feb 8, 16:27 UTC
- TRADESELLIsrael and Syria normalize relations by December 31, 2026?$41.58Feb 8, 11:57 UTC
- TRADESELLIsrael and Syria normalize relations by December 31, 2026?$59.01Feb 8, 11:57 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Polymarket mindshare hit 80%?$5.88Jan 25, 17:34 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the New Orleans Pelicans have the worst record in the NBA?$106.15Jan 21, 17:59 UTC
- REDEEMOver $20M committed to the Ranger public sale?$213.00Jan 12, 10:28 UTC
- TRADESELLWill there be 8 or more earthquakes of magnitude 7.0 or higher worldwide by June 30?$67.55Jan 11, 22:42 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the Denver Broncos be eliminated in the Super Bowl?$430.77Jan 11, 20:07 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Apple release a new product line before 2027?$87.72Jan 11, 20:06 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the Denver Broncos be eliminated in the Super Bowl?$69.72Jan 11, 19:19 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Joel Edgerton be nominated for Best Actor at the 98th Academy Awards?$4.68Jan 11, 19:09 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill "Trump" be said at the 83rd Golden Globes?$3.76Jan 11, 18:57 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill there be 8 or more earthquakes of magnitude 7.0 or higher worldwide by June 30?$65.62Jan 11, 18:52 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Wallet edge sanity
Do not mirror
22/100Treat this wallet as noise/context only until resolved history, copy-risk, and liquidity checks improve.
Closed-market sample is still too small to treat the win rate as durable.
Use this wallet as an attention signal only, then verify liquidity and resolution risk.
Required before treating wallet flow as useful
50% win rate over 8 closed markets.
A wallet trade is not useful unless a later follower could still enter after spread, slippage, and latency.
Large positions need enough depth to exit; mark-to-market PnL is not cash.
The trade still needs source, expiry, dispute, and settlement checks at the market level.
Leaderboards surface visible winners; losing or abandoned wallets disappear from attention.
Wallet intelligence filter
Watch only
0/100Wallet flow is useful for attention, but missing/review stages stop it from becoming paper attribution.
49 live trades, 0 ledger trades, copy-risk 68/100.
8 closed markets. Enough to inspect, not enough to trust.
No market-level spread or simulated execution cost is attached yet.
No source/expiry/dispute risk context is attached yet.
No market liquidity/depth context is attached yet.
No delayed-entry simulation is attached yet.
No paper receipts attribute this wallet signal to later outcomes yet.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 49
- Avg trade size
- $95.45
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- Jan 11, 05:54 UTC
- Last active
- Feb 8, 19:55 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 8 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.