Israel and Syria normalize relations by December 31, 2026?
Probability
11¢
1h
+0.0pp
24h
+0.0pp
24h Vol
$45.44
Liquidity
$21.3K
Probability (last 7 days)
-3.5pp 7dWhy did it move?
Structured · 3 factors- 1
Resolution-risk signal firing
Market has reached expiry. Watch the UMA dispute window.
- 2
Thin liquidity
Only $21.3k of visible book — small orders can move the line. Treat the probability as a soft estimate.
- 3
Past expiry — awaiting resolution
Market is past its end date. Any price move now is a settlement / dispute artefact, not new information.
What to track next
- Verify the resolution source on this page — exchange feed, official release, news consensus — before treating any move as new information.
Verification actions only — never trade recommendations.
Each factor is grounded in a single named metric you can verify on this page — probability, volume, liquidity, signal, resolution state. No predictions, no prose hallucinations.
AI prose summary
Loading prose summary — see the structured breakdown above.
Prose narration of the same metrics shown in the structured breakdown above. Cites only the market data on this page — no news, no predictions. Use the structured factors as the canonical answer; this is here for readability.
Timeline — news, trades, signals, price moves
- 17:00SignalLOW
Signal · Resolution risk
Market has reached expiry. Watch the UMA dispute window.
- 15:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability down -3.0pp
to 11¢
- 14:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability down -4.0pp
to 11¢
- 12:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability down -4.5pp
to 11¢
- 11:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability down -4.5pp
to 11¢
- 09:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability down -4.5pp
to 11¢
- 08:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability down -4.0pp
to 11¢
- 06:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability down -4.0pp
to 11¢
- 05:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability down -4.0pp
to 11¢
- 03:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability down -3.5pp
to 11¢
- 02:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability down -3.5pp
to 11¢
- 00:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability down -4.0pp
to 11¢
- 23:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability down -4.0pp
to 11¢
- 21:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability down -4.0pp
to 11¢
- 20:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability down -4.0pp
to 11¢
- 18:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability down -3.5pp
to 11¢
- 1d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability down -3.5pp
to 11¢
- 1d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability down -3.5pp
to 11¢
- 1d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability down -3.5pp
to 11¢
- 1d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability down -3.5pp
to 11¢
- 1d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability down -3.5pp
to 11¢
- 1d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability down -3.5pp
to 11¢
- 1d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability down -3.5pp
to 11¢
- 1d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability down -3.5pp
to 11¢
- 2d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability down -3.5pp
to 11¢
- 2d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability down -3.5pp
to 11¢
- 2d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability down -4.0pp
to 11¢
- 2d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability down -4.0pp
to 11¢
- 2d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability down -4.0pp
to 11¢
- 2d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability down -4.0pp
to 11¢
Active signals
Recent Trades
No recent trades visible from the Data API for this market.
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Market Description
This market will resolve to "Yes" if both Israel and Syria officially announce the establishment of diplomatic relations by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Israel and the Syria, however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Resolution & Risk
LOW risk- End date
- Dec 31, 2025
- UMA status
- n/a
- Resolution source
- consensus of credible reportingNews consensusextracted · medium
- Market type
- Binary
- No obvious resolution-risk signals in metadata.
Alerts
In-app banners fire as soon as a rule is satisfied. Email, Telegram, and Discord delivery are coming soon — every existing rule will keep working without changes.