Insubstantial-Hurry-Bronchitis
0x897a960452f8943b450d382f254522d992a74194
Wallet digest
Activity score
65/100
Performance measurable
Open positions
200
Open notional
$5.8K
Total PnL
$-5.2K
Realised
$461.93
Win rate
25%
8 closed
Largest open positions
showing 10 of 200- NO
Will María Corina Machado enter Venezuela by July 31?
582 shares @ 86.7¢·now 98.3¢·exp Jul 31, 2026$571.73
$67.09
- YES
Next Mythos-Class Model released by September 30, 2026?
661 shares @ 81.8¢·now 77.0¢·exp Sep 30, 2026$509.05
$-32.11
- YES
Will Partido Liberal (PL) win the most seats in the next Brazilian Senate election?
552 shares @ 62.7¢·now 71.5¢·exp Oct 4, 2026$395.01
$48.62
- YES
Bank of England rate hike in 2026?
805 shares @ 34.6¢·now 41.0¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$330.20
$51.61
- NO
Will Core CPI YoY be 2.6% in July?
339 shares @ 86.4¢·now 89.0¢·exp Aug 12, 2026$302.25
$9.03
- NO
Will Core CPI YoY be 2.5% in July?
363 shares @ 61.4¢·now 74.5¢·exp Aug 12, 2026$270.78
$47.45
- NO
Bank of Mexico decreases interest rates by 25 bps after August 2026 meeting?
288 shares @ 89.6¢·now 92.9¢·exp Aug 6, 2026$267.58
$9.49
- NO
Will three people dissent the July Fed decision?
236 shares @ 88.0¢·now 86.5¢·exp Jul 29, 2026$204.14
$-3.54
- NO
Will SPD win the most seats in the 2026 Mecklenburg-Vorpommern parliamentary elections?
239 shares @ 71.8¢·now 83.0¢·exp Sep 20, 2026$198.58
$26.74
- YES
Will the Republican Party win the AK-AL House seat?
241 shares @ 81.1¢·now 80.5¢·exp Nov 3, 2026$194.13
$-1.37
Recent activity
- REDEEMWill Trump meet with Netanyahu by July 31, 2026?$857.79Jul 28, 18:33 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill three people dissent the July Fed decision?$52.23Jul 28, 17:12 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill three people dissent the July Fed decision?$52.23Jul 28, 17:10 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill three people dissent the July Fed decision?$52.23Jul 28, 17:08 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill three people dissent the July Fed decision?$52.23Jul 28, 17:07 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Denver be between 88-89°F on July 28?$24.85Jul 28, 16:06 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Denver be between 92-93°F on July 28?$5.56Jul 28, 16:06 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Denver be between 88-89°F on July 28?$18.12Jul 28, 16:04 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Denver be between 92-93°F on July 28?$3.11Jul 28, 16:04 UTC
- TRADEBUYDon Cheadle as James Rhodes / War Machine?$4.09Jul 28, 12:41 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill "Fatherland" be nominated for Best Picture at the 99th Academy Awards?$6.26Jul 28, 06:50 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill "Fatherland" be nominated for Best Picture at the 99th Academy Awards?$7.04Jul 28, 06:48 UTC
- REDEEMWill the highest temperature in Austin be between 96-97°F on July 27?$69.32Jul 28, 06:15 UTC
- REDEEMWill the highest temperature in Chicago be between 92-93°F on July 27?$40.80Jul 28, 06:14 UTC
- REDEEMWill the highest temperature in Chicago be between 94-95°F on July 27?$25.75Jul 28, 06:13 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Core CPI YoY be 2.6% in July?$6.34Jul 28, 03:57 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Core CPI YoY be 2.6% in July?$6.34Jul 28, 03:27 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Core CPI YoY be 2.6% in July?$10.98Jul 28, 03:25 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Core CPI YoY be 2.6% in July?$10.98Jul 28, 03:24 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill María Corina Machado enter Venezuela by July 31?$6.46Jul 28, 01:58 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Wallet edge sanity
Needs review
26/100Useful as a watchlist input, but the edge claim still needs resolved history, cost, and source checks.
Closed-market sample is still too small to treat the win rate as durable.
Open-position PnL can disappear if liquidity, exit price, or final resolution changes.
Use this wallet as an attention signal only, then verify liquidity and resolution risk.
Many positions were entered near obvious prices, which can inflate win rate while hiding tail risk.
Required before treating wallet flow as useful
25% win rate over 8 closed markets.
A wallet trade is not useful unless a later follower could still enter after spread, slippage, and latency.
Large positions need enough depth to exit; mark-to-market PnL is not cash.
The trade still needs source, expiry, dispute, and settlement checks at the market level.
Leaderboards surface visible winners; losing or abandoned wallets disappear from attention.
Wallet intelligence filter
Watch only
14/100Wallet flow is useful for attention, but missing/review stages stop it from becoming paper attribution.
46 live trades, 0 ledger trades, copy-risk 51/100.
8 closed markets. Enough to inspect, not enough to trust.
No market-level spread or simulated execution cost is attached yet.
No source/expiry/dispute risk context is attached yet.
No market liquidity/depth context is attached yet.
No delayed-entry simulation is attached yet.
No paper receipts attribute this wallet signal to later outcomes yet.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 46
- Avg trade size
- $10.54
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- Jul 26, 20:40 UTC
- Last active
- Jul 28, 18:33 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 8 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.