Old-Comma
0x89c5aba596f768b806203bd6bda5160039fa62ae
Wallet digest
Activity score
87/100
Performance measurable
Open positions
126
Open notional
$93.62
Total PnL
$-465.59
Realised
$176.21
Win rate
92%
25 closed
Largest open positions
showing 10 of 126- NO
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by July 31, 2026?
43 shares @ 58.0¢·now 99.6¢·exp Jul 31, 2026$42.91
$17.91
- YES
Israel closes its airspace by August 31?
119 shares @ 21.0¢·now 31.5¢·exp Jul 15, 2026$37.50
$12.50
- YES
US x Iran Effective Ceasefire by August 14?
21 shares @ 34.0¢·now 42.5¢·exp Aug 14, 2026$8.75
$1.75
- YES
Will Hunter Biden win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?
625 shares @ 0.4¢·now 0.5¢·exp Nov 7, 2028$3.44
$0.94
- YES
US-Iran Final Nuclear Deal by August 31, 2026?
17 shares @ 29.0¢·now 5.5¢·exp Aug 31, 2026$0.95
$-4.05
- YES
US-Iran Final Nuclear Deal by July 31, 2026?
50 shares @ 5.0¢·now 0.1¢·exp Jul 31, 2026$0.07
$-2.42
- YES
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026?
314 shares @ 3.5¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jun 15, 2026$0.00
$-11.00
- NO
Trump declassifies new UFO files by May 31?
305 shares @ 0.6¢·now 0.0¢·exp May 31, 2026$0.00
$-1.77
- YES
Will Portugal win Eurovision 2026?
300 shares @ 0.5¢·now 0.0¢·exp May 16, 2026$0.00
$-1.50
- NO
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026?
260 shares @ 9.3¢·now 0.0¢·exp May 31, 2026$0.00
$-24.38
Recent activity
- TRADEBUYUS x Iran Effective Ceasefire by August 14?$7.00Jul 23, 18:55 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Hunter Biden win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?$2.60Jul 23, 18:49 UTC
- TRADESELLStrait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31?$9.16Jul 23, 18:49 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $80 in July?$21.31Jul 13, 09:02 UTC
- TRADESELLWill WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $65 in July?$20.71Jul 13, 09:01 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $65 in July?$26.76Jul 9, 11:59 UTC
- TRADEBUYUS x Iran diplomatic meeting by July 31, 2026?$25.00Jul 9, 11:56 UTC
- TRADEBUYIsrael closes its airspace by August 31?$25.00Jul 9, 11:54 UTC
- TRADESELLTrump orders federal review of AI model releases by June 30?$14.96Jul 1, 06:55 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Bitcoin dip to $57,500 in June?$6.33Jul 1, 02:20 UTC
- TRADESELLWill WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $90 in June?$4.37Jun 26, 15:58 UTC
- TRADESELLWill WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $90 in June?$5.05Jun 24, 12:54 UTC
- TRADESELLWill WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $80 in June?$10.00Jun 24, 08:17 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Donald Trump publicly insult someone on June 21, 2026?$5.40Jun 24, 06:11 UTC
- TRADESELLWill WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $85 in June?$5.94Jun 23, 14:03 UTC
- TRADEBUYUS x Cuba diplomatic meeting by June 30?$5.00Jun 23, 13:57 UTC
- TRADEBUYUS-Iran Final Nuclear Deal by August 31, 2026?$5.00Jun 23, 13:52 UTC
- TRADEBUYUS-Iran Final Nuclear Deal by July 31, 2026?$2.50Jun 23, 13:51 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Bitcoin dip to $57,500 in June?$5.08Jun 23, 13:49 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $70 in June?$5.09Jun 23, 13:47 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Wallet edge sanity
Needs review
49/100Useful as a watchlist input, but the edge claim still needs resolved history, cost, and source checks.
Many positions were entered near obvious prices, which can inflate win rate while hiding tail risk.
Required before treating wallet flow as useful
92% win rate over 25 closed markets.
A wallet trade is not useful unless a later follower could still enter after spread, slippage, and latency.
Large positions need enough depth to exit; mark-to-market PnL is not cash.
The trade still needs source, expiry, dispute, and settlement checks at the market level.
Leaderboards surface visible winners; losing or abandoned wallets disappear from attention.
Wallet intelligence filter
Watch only
14/100Wallet flow is useful for attention, but missing/review stages stop it from becoming paper attribution.
50 live trades, 0 ledger trades, copy-risk 38/100.
25 closed markets. Enough to inspect, not enough to trust.
No market-level spread or simulated execution cost is attached yet.
No source/expiry/dispute risk context is attached yet.
No market liquidity/depth context is attached yet.
No delayed-entry simulation is attached yet.
No paper receipts attribute this wallet signal to later outcomes yet.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 50
- Avg trade size
- $6.34
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- Jun 16, 11:11 UTC
- Last active
- Jul 23, 18:55 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 25 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.