Sticky-Comment
0x8a482e9ceb607197ffe971cfdd781c1a081308c5
Wallet digest
Activity score
72/100
Performance measurable
Open positions
200
Open notional
$1.1K
Total PnL
$-1.6K
Realised
$45.71
Win rate
43%
14 closed
Largest open positions
showing 10 of 200- NO
Metamask FDV above $1B one day after launch?
370 shares @ 51.1¢·now 95.5¢·exp Jan 1, 2027$353.40
$164.15
- NO
Fed rate hike in 2026?
617 shares @ 50.0¢·now 24.0¢·exp Dec 9, 2026$147.99
$-160.33
- NO
Dan Clancy out as Twitch CEO before 2027?
148 shares @ 59.6¢·now 92.3¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$136.60
$48.47
- YES
Will Darializa Avila Chevalier win the NY-13 Democratic Primary by less than 5%?
102 shares @ 96.4¢·now 96.9¢·exp Jun 23, 2026$98.48
$0.48
- NO
Will Ubisoft be acquired before 2027?
104 shares @ 54.4¢·now 87.5¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$91.00
$34.40
- NO
Will Nansen launch a token by December 31, 2026?
99 shares @ 56.7¢·now 88.5¢·exp Jan 1, 2027$87.88
$31.56
- YES
GRVT FDV above $100M one day after launch?
50 shares @ 84.0¢·now 98.0¢·exp Jan 1, 2028$48.70
$6.96
- NO
Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by December 31?
51 shares @ 92.8¢·now 94.5¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$47.89
$0.86
- NO
Will Trump acquire Greenland before 2027?
40 shares @ 57.0¢·now 95.6¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$37.76
$15.22
- NO
Will 4 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026?
20 shares @ 50.0¢·now 99.5¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$19.90
$9.90
Recent activity
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down on July 28?$2.10Jul 28, 09:42 UTC
- REDEEMWill the highest temperature in Lucknow be 33°C on July 27?$100.65Jul 27, 19:13 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Lucknow be 33°C on July 27?$98.13Jul 27, 12:01 UTC
- TRADESELLEthereum Up or Down on July 27?$1.39Jul 27, 04:38 UTC
- TRADEBUYEthereum Up or Down on July 27?$1.89Jul 27, 04:38 UTC
- REDEEMWill LeBron James play for the Golden State Warriors in 2026-27?$4.01Jul 27, 02:55 UTC
- REDEEMWill LeBron James play for the Miami Heat in 2026-27?$2.05Jul 27, 02:50 UTC
- REDEEMWill LeBron James play for the Cleveland Cavaliers in 2026-27?$2.48Jul 27, 01:20 UTC
- REDEEMWill Kimi Antonelli win the 2026 F1 Hungarian Grand Prix?$3.84Jul 26, 19:36 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Toronto FC win on 2026-07-25?$0.60Jul 26, 00:20 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Toronto FC win on 2026-07-25?$1.01Jul 26, 00:20 UTC
- REDEEMBitcoin Up or Down on July 25?$14.30Jul 25, 16:14 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down on July 25?$5.82Jul 25, 08:17 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by December 31?$47.03Jul 25, 02:02 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill FK Jablonec win on 2026-07-23?$3.85Jul 23, 19:18 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill there be no change in Fed interest rates after the July 2026 meeting?$8.96Jul 21, 18:35 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down on July 20?$8.72Jul 20, 15:00 UTC
- REDEEMWill Angela Rayner be the next Prime Minister of the United Kingdom in 2026?$34.00Jul 20, 14:49 UTC
- REDEEMWill Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?$1.67Jul 20, 01:47 UTC
- REDEEMWill Unai Simón win the Golden Glove at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?$25.01Jul 20, 00:39 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Wallet edge sanity
Needs review
36/100Useful as a watchlist input, but the edge claim still needs resolved history, cost, and source checks.
Open-position PnL can disappear if liquidity, exit price, or final resolution changes.
Required before treating wallet flow as useful
43% win rate over 14 closed markets.
A wallet trade is not useful unless a later follower could still enter after spread, slippage, and latency.
Large positions need enough depth to exit; mark-to-market PnL is not cash.
The trade still needs source, expiry, dispute, and settlement checks at the market level.
Leaderboards surface visible winners; losing or abandoned wallets disappear from attention.
Wallet intelligence filter
Watch only
14/100Wallet flow is useful for attention, but missing/review stages stop it from becoming paper attribution.
27 live trades, 0 ledger trades, copy-risk 46/100.
14 closed markets. Enough to inspect, not enough to trust.
No market-level spread or simulated execution cost is attached yet.
No source/expiry/dispute risk context is attached yet.
No market liquidity/depth context is attached yet.
No delayed-entry simulation is attached yet.
No paper receipts attribute this wallet signal to later outcomes yet.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 27
- Avg trade size
- $9.36
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- Jul 15, 20:51 UTC
- Last active
- Jul 28, 09:42 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 14 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.