Mild-Oak-Most
0x8a5701aa5eea36a696fb3d09b16644734b400358
Wallet digest
Activity score
86/100
Performance measurable
Open positions
82
Open notional
$479.56
Total PnL
$-96.51
Realised
$51.96
Win rate
67%
18 closed
Largest open positions
showing 10 of 82- NO
Will MrBeast's next video get between 80 and 90 million views on week 1?
20 shares @ 92.4¢·now 98.5¢·exp Aug 15, 2026$19.70
$1.22
- YES
Will "The End of Oak Street" score at least 82 on the Rotten Tomatoes Tomatometer?
20 shares @ 93.0¢·now 97.5¢·exp Aug 17, 2026$19.51
$0.91
- YES
Will "PAW Patrol: The Dino Movie" score at least 86 on the Rotten Tomatoes Tomatometer?
20 shares @ 85.0¢·now 84.5¢·exp Aug 17, 2026$16.90
$-0.10
- YES
Will claude-opus-5-max be the best AI model on August 17, 2026?
20 shares @ 90.9¢·now 84.5¢·exp Aug 17, 2026$16.90
$-1.28
- YES
No change in Bank of Mexico’s interest rates after November 2026 meeting?
20 shares @ 90.0¢·now 82.5¢·exp Nov 5, 2026$16.50
$-1.50
- YES
Will the next Google Gemini Flash model added to the Arena Leaderboard debut at a score of at least 1490?
20 shares @ 85.1¢·now 80.6¢·exp Jan 1, 1970$16.12
$-0.90
- YES
Will Eric Barlow win the 2026 Wyoming Governor Republican primary election?
20 shares @ 76.1¢·now 79.0¢·exp Aug 18, 2026$15.79
$0.57
- NO
Will Ukraine re-enter Obratne or Temyrivka by September 30?
20 shares @ 81.0¢·now 77.0¢·exp Sep 30, 2026$15.40
$-0.80
- NO
Will Byron Donalds win the Florida Republican Governor primary by 35–40%?
20 shares @ 76.0¢·now 74.5¢·exp Aug 18, 2026$14.90
$-0.30
- YES
Will OpenAI’s Astra model debut on the Arena Leaderboard at a score of at least 1480?
19 shares @ 87.0¢·now 74.5¢·exp Jan 1, 1970$13.99
$-2.35
Recent activity
- TRADEBUYWill Anthropic have the best AI Agent at the end of October 2026?$14.80Aug 14, 03:18 UTC
- TRADESELLWill FaZe Clan Win EWC 2026 Rainbow Six Siege$7.80Aug 14, 03:08 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill UK annual GDP growth in 2026 be between 1% and 2%?$9.28Aug 14, 03:05 UTC
- TRADESELLWill the 10-year Japanese government bond yield on the last reported day of 2026 be at least 3.0%?$3.10Aug 14, 02:51 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill "PAW Patrol: The Dino Movie" score at least 86 on the Rotten Tomatoes Tomatometer?$17.00Aug 14, 02:35 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Byron Donalds win the Florida Republican Governor primary by 35–40%?$15.20Aug 14, 02:29 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Z.ai be the third-best Chinese AI company at the end of August 2026?$9.80Aug 14, 02:23 UTC
- TRADESELLNo change in Bank of Japan’s interest rates after the October 2026 meeting?$9.20Aug 14, 02:11 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Ukraine re-enter Obratne or Temyrivka by September 30?$16.20Aug 14, 01:51 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill "The End of Oak Street" score at least 82 on the Rotten Tomatoes Tomatometer?$18.60Aug 14, 01:45 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Byron Donalds win the Florida Republican Governor primary by at least 40%?$10.20Aug 14, 01:38 UTC
- MAKER_REBATE$2.63Aug 14, 00:45 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Brandon Nakashima Win ATP Montreal$7.20Aug 14, 00:28 UTC
- TRADEBUYNo change in Bank of Japan’s interest rates after the October 2026 meeting?$9.00Aug 14, 00:25 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill OpenAI’s Astra model debut on the Arena Leaderboard at a score of at least 1490?$12.00Aug 14, 00:20 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Ukraine re-enter Uspenivka by September 30?$9.60Aug 14, 00:08 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the next Google Gemini Flash model added to the Arena Leaderboard debut at a score of at least 1490?$17.02Aug 14, 00:07 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the 10-year Japanese government bond yield on the last reported day of 2026 be at least 3.0%?$3.09Aug 13, 23:51 UTC
- MERGEWill the next Google Gemini Flash model added to the Arena Leaderboard debut at a score of at least 1490?$20.00Aug 13, 23:35 UTC
- MERGEWill MrBeast's next video get between 70 and 80 million views on week 1?$40.00Aug 13, 23:34 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Wallet edge sanity
Needs review
44/100Useful as a watchlist input, but the edge claim still needs resolved history, cost, and source checks.
Required before treating wallet flow as useful
67% win rate over 18 closed markets.
A wallet trade is not useful unless a later follower could still enter after spread, slippage, and latency.
Large positions need enough depth to exit; mark-to-market PnL is not cash.
The trade still needs source, expiry, dispute, and settlement checks at the market level.
Leaderboards surface visible winners; losing or abandoned wallets disappear from attention.
Wallet intelligence filter
Watch only
14/100Wallet flow is useful for attention, but missing/review stages stop it from becoming paper attribution.
44 live trades, 0 ledger trades, copy-risk 39/100.
18 closed markets. Enough to inspect, not enough to trust.
No market-level spread or simulated execution cost is attached yet.
No source/expiry/dispute risk context is attached yet.
No market liquidity/depth context is attached yet.
No delayed-entry simulation is attached yet.
No paper receipts attribute this wallet signal to later outcomes yet.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 44
- Avg trade size
- $8.55
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- Aug 13, 15:08 UTC
- Last active
- Aug 14, 03:18 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 18 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.