PoliticsMulti-outcomeExpires Aug 18, 2026

Will Eric Barlow win the 2026 Wyoming Governor Republican primary election?

Probability

18¢

1h

-1.7pp

24h

+1.6pp

24h Vol

$0.00

Liquidity

$7.4K

Probability (last 7 days)

-1.2pp 7d
Apr 19, 2026, 01:00Apr 25, 2026, 17:44
updated 0s ago·src:Polymarket CLOB

Why did it move?

Structured · 3 factors
  1. 1

    Up 2pp over 24h

    Now 18¢; -1.7pp in the last hour.

  2. 2

    Resolution-risk signal firing

    Expires in 2742h with open resolution ambiguity.

  3. 3

    Wide spread — 4.3¢

    Bid-ask spread is wide enough that intraday moves overstate any tradeable edge. Most of the headline pp move would be eaten by spread on a market order.

What to track next

  • Verify the resolution source on this page — exchange feed, official release, news consensus — before treating any move as new information.

Verification actions only — never trade recommendations.

Each factor is grounded in a single named metric you can verify on this page — probability, volume, liquidity, signal, resolution state. No predictions, no prose hallucinations.

Timeline

critical · price · trade flow

Critical

  • 0s agoResolve

    Market resolves in 2742.3h

    LOW
  • 17:44Signal

    Resolution risk

    Expires in 2742h with open resolution ambiguity.

    LOW

Price movement

+1.3pp over the last 24h, now 18¢.

Biggest hourly move: -6.7pp at 1d ago (to 17¢).

Show all 8 hour-by-hour ticks
  • 14:00 · -3.0pp → 17¢
  • 1d ago · -5.4pp → 17¢
  • 1d ago · -6.7pp → 17¢
  • 2d ago · -3.9pp → 19¢
  • 2d ago · -3.1pp → 17¢
  • 2d ago · -6.6pp → 17¢
  • 2d ago · -3.7pp → 17¢
  • 2d ago · -3.3pp → 17¢
updated 0s ago·src:Polymarket CLOB·Polymarket Data

Active signals

Recent Trades

No recent trades visible from the Data API for this market.

updated 0s ago·src:Polymarket Data

Related Markets

14
Same eventWyoming Governor Republican Primary Winner
Category · Politics

Market Description

This market will resolve according to the winner of the Republican Primary for Governor of Wyoming, scheduled to take place on August 18, 2026. Resolution will be based on the overall winner of the primary, including any potential second round or run-off. If no 2026 Wyoming Gubernatorial Republican Primary takes place, this market will resolve to “Other.” The resolution source for this market will be the first official announcement of the results from the Wyoming Republican Party; however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may suffice.

Resolution & Risk

LOW risk
End date
Aug 18, 2026
UMA status
n/a
Resolution source
natoOfficial government sourceextracted · high
Market type
Multi-outcome (neg-risk)
  • Part of a multi-outcome event (neg-risk): only one market can resolve YES.
  • Wide spread (4.3¢) — liquidity risk on entry/exit.
Read full market rules on Polymarket

Alerts

¢
Deliver

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