Traumatic-Cinder
0x8a973281721f7249798e2a9fed99b1ea360cec10
Wallet digest
Activity score
71/100
Performance: thin sample
Open positions
38
Open notional
$112.11
Total PnL
$-144.80
Realised
$0.00
Win rate
n/a
too few closed
Largest open positions
showing 10 of 38- YES
S&P 500 (SPY) closes above $720 on July 10?
112 shares @ 99.9¢·now 100.0¢·exp Jul 10, 2026$112.11
$0.11
- YES
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $60,000 and $62,000 on March 8?
905 shares @ 0.2¢·now 0.0¢·exp Mar 8, 2026$0.00
$-1.81
- YES
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $74,000 and $76,000 on March 26?
775 shares @ 0.2¢·now 0.0¢·exp Mar 26, 2026$0.00
$-1.55
- YES
Will the price of Ethereum be between $1,600 and $1,700 on March 8?
740 shares @ 0.2¢·now 0.0¢·exp Mar 8, 2026$0.00
$-1.48
- YES
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $64,000 and $66,000 on March 24?
705 shares @ 0.2¢·now 0.0¢·exp Mar 24, 2026$0.00
$-1.41
- YES
Will Josh Safdie win Best Director at the 98th Academy Awards?
703 shares @ 0.3¢·now 0.0¢·exp Mar 15, 2026$0.00
$-2.11
- NO
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on April 8?
687 shares @ 0.2¢·now 0.0¢·exp Apr 8, 2026$0.00
$-1.37
- YES
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,300 on March 29?
685 shares @ 0.2¢·now 0.0¢·exp Mar 29, 2026$0.00
$-1.37
- YES
Will Elon Musk post 115-139 tweets from April 6 to April 8, 2026?
652 shares @ 0.4¢·now 0.0¢·exp Apr 8, 2026$0.00
$-2.85
- YES
Will the price of XRP be between $0.90 and $1.00 on March 2?
625 shares @ 0.4¢·now 0.0¢·exp Mar 2, 2026$0.00
$-2.50
Recent activity
- TRADEBUYS&P 500 (SPY) closes above $720 on July 10?$112.00Jul 10, 08:05 UTC
- REDEEMWill Tesla, Inc. (TSLA) hit (LOW) $345 in June?$112.34Jul 10, 08:02 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Tesla, Inc. (TSLA) hit (LOW) $345 in June?$112.01Jun 30, 09:10 UTC
- REDEEMLoL: Team Secret Whales vs Deep Cross Gaming (BO5) - LCP Playoffs$8.35Jun 19, 12:45 UTC
- REDEEMWill Yang Seung-jo win the 2026 Chungcheongnam Province gubernatorial election?$10.75Jun 19, 12:45 UTC
- REDEEMWill the highest temperature in Dallas be between 84-85°F on May 30?$12.14Jun 19, 12:45 UTC
- REDEEMWill Solana dip to $70 in May?$81.01Jun 19, 12:45 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Solana dip to $70 in May?$80.86May 31, 06:30 UTC
- TRADEBUYLoL: Team Secret Whales vs Deep Cross Gaming (BO5) - LCP Playoffs$6.55May 31, 06:26 UTC
- REDEEMWill the price of Ethereum be above $1,900 on May 30?$87.37May 31, 06:23 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the price of Ethereum be above $1,900 on May 30?$86.89May 30, 04:25 UTC
- TRADEBUYCounter-Strike: ENCE vs UNiTY esports (BO3) - European Pro League Series 7 Closed Qualifier Group D$8.40May 30, 04:20 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Flavio Cobolli be the 2026 Men’s Wimbledon winner?$94.89May 30, 04:14 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Flavio Cobolli be the 2026 Men’s Wimbledon winner?$95.01May 30, 03:54 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Yang Seung-jo win the 2026 Chungcheongnam Province gubernatorial election?$10.74May 30, 03:46 UTC
- REDEEMWill TonalEnergy Tuner & Metronome be #1 Paid App in the US Apple App Store on May 29?$10.51May 30, 03:40 UTC
- REDEEMWill Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from May 22 to May 29, 2026?$95.67May 30, 03:40 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from May 22 to May 29, 2026?$95.58May 29, 06:09 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Dallas be between 84-85°F on May 30?$12.10May 29, 06:00 UTC
- REDEEMWill the price of Bitcoin be above $76,000 on May 28?$107.67May 29, 05:56 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Wallet edge sanity
Do not mirror
0/100Treat this wallet as noise/context only until resolved history, copy-risk, and liquidity checks improve.
Win rate is hidden until at least 3 closed markets exist for this wallet.
Large size, concentration, or thin history makes this wallet unsafe to imitate.
Required before treating wallet flow as useful
Only 0 closed markets; headline win rate is intentionally hidden.
A wallet trade is not useful unless a later follower could still enter after spread, slippage, and latency.
Large positions need enough depth to exit; mark-to-market PnL is not cash.
The trade still needs source, expiry, dispute, and settlement checks at the market level.
Leaderboards surface visible winners; losing or abandoned wallets disappear from attention.
Wallet intelligence filter
Blocked
0/100Wallet flow is blocked as an intelligence signal until hard failures are fixed.
Wallet activity exists, but copy-risk is too high for interpretation.
Too few closed markets. Do not infer edge from open PnL or leaderboard rank.
No market-level spread or simulated execution cost is attached yet.
No source/expiry/dispute risk context is attached yet.
No market liquidity/depth context is attached yet.
No delayed-entry simulation is attached yet.
No paper receipts attribute this wallet signal to later outcomes yet.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 33
- Avg trade size
- $87.84
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- May 20, 07:14 UTC
- Last active
- Jul 10, 08:05 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 0 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.