Blaring-Backdrop
0x8a98109fb0f1d87d9bfcb4486ba3587b95c51b92
Wallet digest
Activity score
62/100
Performance measurable
Open positions
134
Open notional
$8.0K
Total PnL
$-17.6K
Realised
$-7.2K
Win rate
37%
98 closed
Largest open positions
showing 10 of 134- NO
Will Crude Oil reach a new all-time high by September 30?
2000 shares @ 81.0¢·now 94.1¢·exp Sep 30, 2026$1.9K
$262.00
- NO
Will OpenAI IPO by December 31 2026?
1632 shares @ 29.5¢·now 81.5¢·exp Jan 1, 1970$1.3K
$848.11
- YES
Will Russia capture Kostyantynivka by December 31, 2026?
972 shares @ 89.4¢·now 90.0¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$875.19
$6.14
- YES
Will a new country join the Abraham Accords before 2027?
1746 shares @ 53.7¢·now 32.6¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$569.99
$-367.96
- YES
Will Russia capture Kostyantynivka by September 30?
627 shares @ 79.8¢·now 82.5¢·exp Sep 30, 2026$517.22
$16.89
- YES
Will Russia capture Lyman by December 31, 2026?
829 shares @ 50.4¢·now 55.5¢·exp Dec 31, 2025$460.17
$42.33
- YES
NATO x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026?
1199 shares @ 24.1¢·now 27.5¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$329.69
$40.09
- NO
Will Crude Oil reach a new all-time high by December 31?
342 shares @ 69.0¢·now 87.5¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$299.56
$63.33
- YES
Zelenskyy out as Ukraine president by end of 2026?
3187 shares @ 12.8¢·now 7.5¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$239.02
$-170.66
- YES
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027?
1095 shares @ 28.7¢·now 21.5¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$235.34
$-78.46
Recent activity
- YIELD$0.03Jul 28, 00:12 UTC
- YIELD$0.03Jul 27, 00:13 UTC
- YIELD$0.03Jul 26, 00:14 UTC
- YIELD$0.03Jul 25, 00:14 UTC
- YIELD$0.03Jul 24, 00:10 UTC
- YIELD$0.04Jul 23, 00:15 UTC
- YIELD$0.04Jul 22, 00:15 UTC
- YIELD$0.03Jul 21, 20:11 UTC
- YIELD$0.03Jul 21, 00:12 UTC
- YIELD$0.04Jul 19, 00:16 UTC
- YIELD$0.04Jul 18, 00:17 UTC
- YIELD$0.04Jul 17, 00:14 UTC
- YIELD$0.03Jul 16, 00:13 UTC
- YIELD$0.04Jul 15, 00:11 UTC
- YIELD$0.04Jul 14, 00:13 UTC
- YIELD$0.03Jul 13, 00:14 UTC
- YIELD$0.03Jul 12, 00:18 UTC
- YIELD$0.03Jul 11, 00:16 UTC
- YIELD$0.04Jul 10, 00:17 UTC
- TAKER_REBATE$435.77Jul 9, 21:16 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Wallet edge sanity
Needs review
53/100Useful as a watchlist input, but the edge claim still needs resolved history, cost, and source checks.
Many positions were entered near obvious prices, which can inflate win rate while hiding tail risk.
Required before treating wallet flow as useful
37% win rate over 98 closed markets.
A wallet trade is not useful unless a later follower could still enter after spread, slippage, and latency.
Large positions need enough depth to exit; mark-to-market PnL is not cash.
The trade still needs source, expiry, dispute, and settlement checks at the market level.
Leaderboards surface visible winners; losing or abandoned wallets disappear from attention.
Wallet intelligence filter
Watch only
29/100Wallet flow is useful for attention, but missing/review stages stop it from becoming paper attribution.
5 live trades, 0 ledger trades, copy-risk 37/100.
98 closed markets, 37% win rate.
No market-level spread or simulated execution cost is attached yet.
No source/expiry/dispute risk context is attached yet.
No market liquidity/depth context is attached yet.
No delayed-entry simulation is attached yet.
No paper receipts attribute this wallet signal to later outcomes yet.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 5
- Avg trade size
- $24.04
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- Jun 26, 19:22 UTC
- Last active
- Jul 28, 00:12 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 98 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.