Round-Theology
0x8af7de42f4d666793a130ed5c063e06143df7f20
Wallet digest
Activity score
29/100
Performance measurable
Open positions
32
Open notional
$0.00
Total PnL
$-222.86
Realised
$-7.00
Win rate
3%
32 closed
Largest open positions
showing 10 of 32- YES
Will the highest temperature in London be 28°C on May 26?
2562 shares @ 0.4¢·now 0.0¢·exp May 26, 2026$0.00
$-10.00
- YES
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 21°C on May 16?
2500 shares @ 0.2¢·now 0.0¢·exp May 16, 2026$0.00
$-5.00
- YES
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 19°C or below on May 16?
1744 shares @ 0.3¢·now 0.0¢·exp May 16, 2026$0.00
$-5.00
- YES
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 20°C on May 16?
1126 shares @ 0.9¢·now 0.0¢·exp May 16, 2026$0.00
$-10.00
- YES
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 19°C on May 16?
921 shares @ 1.1¢·now 0.0¢·exp May 16, 2026$0.00
$-10.00
- YES
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 24°C on May 17?
895 shares @ 0.5¢·now 0.0¢·exp May 17, 2026$0.00
$-5.00
- YES
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 22°C or below on May 21?
638 shares @ 0.8¢·now 0.0¢·exp May 21, 2026$0.00
$-5.00
- UP
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 4:00PM-4:05PM ET
500 shares @ 1.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jun 4, 2026$0.00
$-5.00
- YES
Will Trump say "Nuclear" during events with Xi Jinping?
500 shares @ 2.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp May 15, 2026$0.00
$-10.00
- YES
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 13°C on May 17?
467 shares @ 1.1¢·now 0.0¢·exp May 17, 2026$0.00
$-5.00
Recent activity
- YIELD$0.00Jun 30, 00:17 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?$23.61Jun 29, 12:55 UTC
- YIELD$0.00Jun 29, 00:10 UTC
- YIELD$0.00Jun 28, 00:16 UTC
- YIELD$0.00Jun 27, 00:17 UTC
- YIELD$0.00Jun 26, 00:17 UTC
- YIELD$0.00Jun 25, 00:16 UTC
- YIELD$0.00Jun 24, 00:17 UTC
- YIELD$0.00Jun 23, 00:19 UTC
- YIELD$0.00Jun 22, 00:15 UTC
- YIELD$0.00Jun 21, 00:12 UTC
- YIELD$0.00Jun 20, 00:16 UTC
- YIELD$0.00Jun 19, 00:18 UTC
- YIELD$0.01Jun 18, 00:11 UTC
- TRADESELLWill France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?$10.88Jun 17, 20:23 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?$43.37Jun 17, 20:22 UTC
- YIELD$0.01Jun 17, 00:11 UTC
- YIELD$0.01Jun 16, 00:10 UTC
- YIELD$0.01Jun 15, 00:12 UTC
- YIELD$0.01Jun 14, 00:10 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Wallet edge sanity
Needs review
55/100Useful as a watchlist input, but the edge claim still needs resolved history, cost, and source checks.
Many positions were entered near obvious prices, which can inflate win rate while hiding tail risk.
Required before treating wallet flow as useful
3% win rate over 32 closed markets.
A wallet trade is not useful unless a later follower could still enter after spread, slippage, and latency.
Large positions need enough depth to exit; mark-to-market PnL is not cash.
The trade still needs source, expiry, dispute, and settlement checks at the market level.
Leaderboards surface visible winners; losing or abandoned wallets disappear from attention.
Wallet intelligence filter
Watch only
29/100Wallet flow is useful for attention, but missing/review stages stop it from becoming paper attribution.
19 live trades, 0 ledger trades, copy-risk 31/100.
32 closed markets, 3% win rate.
No market-level spread or simulated execution cost is attached yet.
No source/expiry/dispute risk context is attached yet.
No market liquidity/depth context is attached yet.
No delayed-entry simulation is attached yet.
No paper receipts attribute this wallet signal to later outcomes yet.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 19
- Avg trade size
- $23.56
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- May 29, 12:09 UTC
- Last active
- Jun 30, 00:17 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 32 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.