Curly-Violin
0x8b061efbc841f93380eb1014ed2601b0725c86e6
Wallet digest
Activity score
100/100
Performance measurable
Open positions
59
Open notional
$5.0K
Total PnL
$-40.85
Realised
$111.39
Win rate
83%
47 closed
Largest open positions
showing 10 of 59- NO
Hantavirus pandemic in 2026?
200 shares @ 97.9¢·now 96.5¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$193.10
$-2.70
- NO
Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by August 31?
200 shares @ 91.0¢·now 89.5¢·exp Aug 31, 2026$179.00
$-3.00
- NO
Will Ukraine recapture Crimean territory by December 31, 2026?
173 shares @ 91.3¢·now 90.5¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$156.76
$-1.39
- NO
Fed Rate Hike by July 2026 Meeting?
199 shares @ 96.1¢·now 77.0¢·exp Dec 9, 2026$153.14
$-38.19
- NO
Will Khvicha Kvaratskhelia win the 2026 Ballon d'Or?
100 shares @ 99.1¢·now 99.2¢·exp Oct 31, 2026$99.15
$0.05
- NO
Will Atlanta Hawks win the 2027 NBA Finals?
100 shares @ 99.1¢·now 99.1¢·exp Jul 1, 2027$99.05
$-0.05
- NO
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 50+ bps after the September 2026 meeting?
100 shares @ 99.1¢·now 99.1¢·exp Sep 16, 2026$99.05
$-0.05
- NO
Will Fabian Ruiz win the 2026 Ballon d'Or?
100 shares @ 99.0¢·now 99.0¢·exp Oct 31, 2026$98.95
$-0.05
- NO
Will China invade Taiwan by September 30, 2026?
100 shares @ 98.6¢·now 98.6¢·exp Sep 30, 2026$98.60
$0.00
- NO
Will Bitcoin reach $250,000 by December 31, 2026?
100 shares @ 98.6¢·now 98.3¢·exp Jan 1, 2027$98.18
$-0.30
Recent activity
- TRADEBUYWill The Odyssey be the top grossing movie of 2026?$7.82Jul 29, 14:20 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Alphabet be the largest company in the world by market cap on August 31?$97.40Jul 29, 14:05 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Alphabet be the largest company in the world by market cap on August 31?$94.79Jul 29, 13:57 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Alphabet be the largest company in the world by market cap on August 31?$2.01Jul 29, 13:57 UTC
- TRADESELLIsrael withdraws from Lebanon by August 31, 2026?$15.29Jul 29, 13:52 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Bitcoin dip to $40,000 by December 31, 2026?$6.23Jul 29, 13:49 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Bitcoin dip to $40,000 by December 31, 2026?$7.82Jul 29, 13:49 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Bitcoin dip to $40,000 by December 31, 2026?$7.73Jul 29, 13:17 UTC
- TRADESELLStrait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by August 15?$3.92Jul 29, 13:14 UTC
- TRADESELLStrait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by August 15?$78.00Jul 29, 13:10 UTC
- TRADESELLWill the US acquire part of Greenland in 2026?$96.00Jul 29, 12:38 UTC
- TRADESELLStrait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by August 15?$113.07Jul 29, 12:30 UTC
- TRADEBUYStrait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by August 15?$81.58Jul 29, 12:29 UTC
- TRADESELLIsrael withdraws from Lebanon by August 31, 2026?$8.77Jul 29, 11:51 UTC
- TRADESELLWill The Odyssey be the top grossing movie of 2026?$6.87Jul 29, 11:43 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Alphabet be the largest company in the world by market cap on August 31?$96.30Jul 29, 11:43 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Alphabet be the largest company in the world by market cap on August 31?$59.85Jul 29, 11:39 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Alphabet be the largest company in the world by market cap on August 31?$36.55Jul 29, 11:39 UTC
- TRADEBUYStrait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by August 15?$112.61Jul 29, 10:23 UTC
- TRADESELLIsrael withdraws from Lebanon by August 31, 2026?$25.59Jul 29, 10:22 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Wallet edge sanity
Needs review
72/100Useful as a watchlist input, but the edge claim still needs resolved history, cost, and source checks.
Many positions were entered near obvious prices, which can inflate win rate while hiding tail risk.
Required before treating wallet flow as useful
83% win rate over 47 closed markets.
A wallet trade is not useful unless a later follower could still enter after spread, slippage, and latency.
Large positions need enough depth to exit; mark-to-market PnL is not cash.
The trade still needs source, expiry, dispute, and settlement checks at the market level.
Leaderboards surface visible winners; losing or abandoned wallets disappear from attention.
Wallet intelligence filter
Watch only
29/100Wallet flow is useful for attention, but missing/review stages stop it from becoming paper attribution.
49 live trades, 0 ledger trades, copy-risk 33/100.
47 closed markets, 83% win rate.
No market-level spread or simulated execution cost is attached yet.
No source/expiry/dispute risk context is attached yet.
No market liquidity/depth context is attached yet.
No delayed-entry simulation is attached yet.
No paper receipts attribute this wallet signal to later outcomes yet.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 49
- Avg trade size
- $35.66
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- Jul 28, 04:12 UTC
- Last active
- Jul 29, 14:20 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 47 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.