Recent-Hazel
0x8b14a322db0e518ed3e3fbe69f65690f3787d0b1
Wallet digest
Activity score
46/100
Performance measurable
Open positions
10
Open notional
$46.0K
Total PnL
$-61.7K
Realised
$-6.8K
Win rate
14%
7 closed
Largest open positions
- YES
Will Bitcoin dip to $55,000 by December 31, 2026?
32933 shares @ 55.4¢·now 52.5¢·exp Jan 1, 2027$17.3K
$-969.14
- YES
Will Bitcoin dip to $45,000 by December 31, 2026?
55306 shares @ 35.6¢·now 29.0¢·exp Jan 1, 2027$16.0K
$-3.6K
- YES
Will Bitcoin dip to $50,000 by December 31, 2026?
34318 shares @ 45.4¢·now 36.5¢·exp Jan 1, 2027$12.5K
$-3.1K
- NO
Will France, UK, or Germany strike Iran by June 30?
146 shares @ 81.0¢·now 100.0¢·exp Jun 30, 2026$145.98
$27.74
- YES
US x Iran permanent peace deal by April 22, 2026?
153833 shares @ 10.1¢·now 0.0¢·exp Apr 22, 2026$0.00
$-15.6K
- YES
Will Bitcoin dip to $55,000 in March?
132906 shares @ 9.7¢·now 0.0¢·exp Apr 1, 2026$0.00
$-12.9K
- YES
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of April?
34504 shares @ 26.3¢·now 0.0¢·exp Apr 30, 2026$0.00
$-9.1K
- YES
Will Bitcoin reach $80,000 in April?
22215 shares @ 37.2¢·now 0.0¢·exp May 1, 2026$0.00
$-8.3K
- NO
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $90 in April?
3091 shares @ 42.4¢·now 0.0¢·exp Apr 30, 2026$0.00
$-1.3K
- YES
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $120 by end of June?
400 shares @ 39.8¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jun 30, 2026$0.00
$-159.31
Recent activity
- YIELD$3.96Jul 29, 00:10 UTC
- YIELD$3.60Jul 28, 00:10 UTC
- YIELD$3.74Jul 27, 00:12 UTC
- YIELD$3.68Jul 26, 00:14 UTC
- YIELD$3.48Jul 25, 00:15 UTC
- YIELD$3.25Jul 24, 00:11 UTC
- YIELD$3.24Jul 23, 00:10 UTC
- YIELD$3.33Jul 22, 00:13 UTC
- YIELD$3.55Jul 21, 00:11 UTC
- YIELD$3.54Jul 20, 00:10 UTC
- YIELD$3.60Jul 19, 00:18 UTC
- YIELD$3.63Jul 18, 00:11 UTC
- YIELD$3.49Jul 17, 00:10 UTC
- YIELD$3.69Jul 16, 00:18 UTC
- YIELD$4.41Jul 15, 00:14 UTC
- YIELD$4.62Jul 14, 00:13 UTC
- YIELD$4.49Jul 13, 00:14 UTC
- YIELD$4.60Jul 12, 00:12 UTC
- YIELD$4.97Jul 11, 00:12 UTC
- YIELD$5.23Jul 10, 00:15 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Wallet edge sanity
Needs review
30/100Useful as a watchlist input, but the edge claim still needs resolved history, cost, and source checks.
Closed-market sample is still too small to treat the win rate as durable.
Open-position PnL can disappear if liquidity, exit price, or final resolution changes.
Required before treating wallet flow as useful
14% win rate over 7 closed markets.
A wallet trade is not useful unless a later follower could still enter after spread, slippage, and latency.
Large positions need enough depth to exit; mark-to-market PnL is not cash.
The trade still needs source, expiry, dispute, and settlement checks at the market level.
Leaderboards surface visible winners; losing or abandoned wallets disappear from attention.
Wallet intelligence filter
Watch only
0/100Wallet flow is useful for attention, but missing/review stages stop it from becoming paper attribution.
No live wallet activity or persistent ledger trades are available.
7 closed markets. Enough to inspect, not enough to trust.
No market-level spread or simulated execution cost is attached yet.
No source/expiry/dispute risk context is attached yet.
No market liquidity/depth context is attached yet.
No delayed-entry simulation is attached yet.
No paper receipts attribute this wallet signal to later outcomes yet.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 0
- Avg trade size
- $0.00
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- Jun 10, 00:11 UTC
- Last active
- Jul 29, 00:10 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 7 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.