Yellow-Dirndl
0x8b42c0b1e49b2d0f734edd25b2306f3ec272405a
Wallet digest
Activity score
71/100
Performance measurable
Open positions
32
Open notional
$255.21
Total PnL
$-476.03
Realised
$202.02
Win rate
80%
10 closed
Largest open positions
showing 10 of 32- YES
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026?
900 shares @ 12.6¢·now 13.3¢·exp Jun 30, 2026$119.25
$5.75
- YES
Will Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz by June 30?
1500 shares @ 8.9¢·now 3.5¢·exp Jun 30, 2026$51.75
$-82.45
- YES
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 13°C on June 23?
359 shares @ 11.2¢·now 6.5¢·exp Jun 23, 2026$23.34
$-16.84
- YES
Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium by June 30?
702 shares @ 8.3¢·now 2.8¢·exp Jun 30, 2026$19.30
$-39.07
- YES
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by June 30, 2026?
1227 shares @ 2.0¢·now 0.9¢·exp Jun 30, 2026$11.65
$-13.34
- YES
Will New Zealand win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?
20000 shares @ 0.1¢·now 0.1¢·exp Jul 20, 2026$10.00
$-10.00
- YES
Will Belgium win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?
700 shares @ 1.6¢·now 1.1¢·exp Jul 20, 2026$7.35
$-3.85
- YES
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $95 in June?
200 shares @ 5.0¢·now 3.3¢·exp Jul 1, 2026$6.50
$-3.50
- YES
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30?
83 shares @ 6.0¢·now 3.1¢·exp Jun 30, 2026$2.62
$-2.38
- YES
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by June 30, 2026?
200 shares @ 1.0¢·now 0.9¢·exp Jun 30, 2026$1.80
$-0.20
Recent activity
No activity on record.
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Wallet edge sanity
Needs review
27/100Useful as a watchlist input, but the edge claim still needs resolved history, cost, and source checks.
Many positions were entered near obvious prices, which can inflate win rate while hiding tail risk.
Required before treating wallet flow as useful
80% win rate over 10 closed markets.
A wallet trade is not useful unless a later follower could still enter after spread, slippage, and latency.
Large positions need enough depth to exit; mark-to-market PnL is not cash.
The trade still needs source, expiry, dispute, and settlement checks at the market level.
Leaderboards surface visible winners; losing or abandoned wallets disappear from attention.
Wallet intelligence filter
Watch only
0/100Wallet flow is useful for attention, but missing/review stages stop it from becoming paper attribution.
No live wallet activity or persistent ledger trades are available.
10 closed markets. Enough to inspect, not enough to trust.
No market-level spread or simulated execution cost is attached yet.
No source/expiry/dispute risk context is attached yet.
No market liquidity/depth context is attached yet.
No delayed-entry simulation is attached yet.
No paper receipts attribute this wallet signal to later outcomes yet.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 0
- Avg trade size
- $0.00
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- —
- Last active
- —
- Win rate sample
- 10 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.