Serene-Decision
0x8b4bca1d794779e66e023d44391b2a86c5ab541b
Wallet digest
Activity score
99/100
Performance measurable
Open positions
85
Open notional
$4.2M
Total PnL
$100.6K
Realised
$5.4K
Win rate
68%
19 closed
Largest open positions
showing 10 of 85- NO
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 50+ bps after the July 2026 meeting?
660000 shares @ 99.5¢·now 99.3¢·exp Jul 29, 2026$655.1K
$-1.9K
- NO
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?
410000 shares @ 79.5¢·now 69.5¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$284.9K
$-41.0K
- NO
Putin out as President of Russia by December 31, 2026?
297500 shares @ 87.5¢·now 91.5¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$272.2K
$11.9K
- NO
Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027?
251706 shares @ 89.3¢·now 89.5¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$225.3K
$353.40
- NO
Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027?
190000 shares @ 81.6¢·now 94.5¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$179.5K
$24.5K
- NO
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the July 2026 meeting?
173984 shares @ 99.5¢·now 99.7¢·exp Jul 29, 2026$173.4K
$233.14
- NO
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31?
153620 shares @ 98.3¢·now 99.0¢·exp Jul 31, 2026$152.0K
$945.22
- NO
Will Trump acquire Greenland before 2027?
147933 shares @ 89.5¢·now 95.5¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$141.3K
$8.9K
- NO
Will Bitcoin reach $77,500 in July?
132930 shares @ 98.7¢·now 99.4¢·exp Aug 1, 2026$132.1K
$925.33
- NO
Trump out as President before 2027?
141846 shares @ 85.4¢·now 92.5¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$131.2K
$10.1K
Recent activity
- TRADEBUYWill Paul Seixas win the 2026 Tour De France?$0.06Jul 23, 23:46 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Isaac del Toro win the 2026 Tour De France?$0.09Jul 23, 23:46 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Bitcoin dip to $47,500 in July?$11.88Jul 23, 23:43 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Bitcoin dip to $47,500 in July?$11.62Jul 23, 23:34 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Bitcoin dip to $47,500 in July?$11.41Jul 23, 23:33 UTC
- TRADESELLWill LeBron James play for the Los Angeles Lakers in 2026-27?$40.38Jul 23, 23:32 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Bitcoin dip to $47,500 in July?$10.54Jul 23, 23:32 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Bitcoin dip to $47,500 in July?$12.15Jul 23, 23:31 UTC
- TRADESELLWill LeBron James play for the Los Angeles Lakers in 2026-27?$6.52Jul 23, 23:30 UTC
- TRADESELLWill LeBron James play for the Los Angeles Lakers in 2026-27?$14.85Jul 23, 23:30 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Bitcoin dip to $47,500 in July?$11.43Jul 23, 23:29 UTC
- TRADESELLWill LeBron James play for the Los Angeles Lakers in 2026-27?$32.05Jul 23, 23:28 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Bitcoin dip to $47,500 in July?$2.60Jul 23, 23:27 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Isaac del Toro win the 2026 Tour De France?$0.07Jul 23, 23:27 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Paul Seixas win the 2026 Tour De France?$0.05Jul 23, 23:27 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Bitcoin dip to $47,500 in July?$10.87Jul 23, 23:24 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Bitcoin dip to $47,500 in July?$2.96Jul 23, 23:23 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Bitcoin dip to $47,500 in July?$9.37Jul 23, 23:23 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Isaac del Toro win the 2026 Tour De France?$0.07Jul 23, 23:18 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Paul Seixas win the 2026 Tour De France?$0.05Jul 23, 23:18 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentLedger volume
$194.6K
Trades
4
Buy share
97%
Window
May 20, 17:40 UTC → Jul 15, 17:25 UTC
- BUYExact Score: England 3 - 3 Argentina?$10.2K@99¢Jul 15, 17:24 UTC
- BUYExact Score: France 2 - 3 Spain?$30.4K@98¢Jul 13, 16:03 UTC
- BUYWill Jonas Vingegaard win the 2026 Tour De France?$17.3K@86¢Jul 6, 10:53 UTC
- BUYWill Tadej Pogačar win the 2026 Tour De France?$6.0K@80¢Jul 5, 15:43 UTC
Wallet edge sanity
Needs review
37/100Useful as a watchlist input, but the edge claim still needs resolved history, cost, and source checks.
Open-position PnL can disappear if liquidity, exit price, or final resolution changes.
Many positions were entered near obvious prices, which can inflate win rate while hiding tail risk.
Required before treating wallet flow as useful
68% win rate over 19 closed markets.
A wallet trade is not useful unless a later follower could still enter after spread, slippage, and latency.
Large positions need enough depth to exit; mark-to-market PnL is not cash.
The trade still needs source, expiry, dispute, and settlement checks at the market level.
Leaderboards surface visible winners; losing or abandoned wallets disappear from attention.
Wallet intelligence filter
Watch only
14/100Wallet flow is useful for attention, but missing/review stages stop it from becoming paper attribution.
50 live trades, 10 ledger trades, copy-risk 42/100.
19 closed markets. Enough to inspect, not enough to trust.
No market-level spread or simulated execution cost is attached yet.
No source/expiry/dispute risk context is attached yet.
No market liquidity/depth context is attached yet.
No delayed-entry simulation is attached yet.
No paper receipts attribute this wallet signal to later outcomes yet.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$63.9K
4 trades
Buy share
97%
Sample
medium
10 ledger trades
Top market concentration
Exact Score: France 2 - 1 Spain?
$73.6K · 38% of recorded whale volume
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 50
- Avg trade size
- $10.46
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- Jul 23, 21:57 UTC
- Last active
- Jul 23, 23:46 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 19 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.