Bewitched-Count
0x8b82055e3102044ce876261568456afbed70b7e9
Wallet digest
Activity score
59/100
Performance: thin sample
Open positions
11
Open notional
$7.70
Total PnL
$-6.54
Realised
$0.00
Win rate
n/a
too few closed
Largest open positions
showing 10 of 11- NO
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by July 10, 2026?
2 shares @ 99.8¢·now 100.0¢·exp Jul 10, 2026$2.11
$0.00
- NO
Will Donald Trump have a diplomatic meeting with Iran by June 30?
1 shares @ 99.4¢·now 100.0¢·exp Jun 30, 2026$1.24
$0.01
- NO
Will 3 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026?
1 shares @ 99.1¢·now 99.3¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$1.21
$0.00
- NO
Will Netflix (NFLX) finish week of July 6 above $130?
1 shares @ 99.9¢·now 100.0¢·exp Jul 10, 2026$1.12
$0.00
- NO
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15?
1 shares @ 99.5¢·now 100.0¢·exp Jul 15, 2026$1.06
$0.01
- YES
Will J.D. Vance win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination?
2 shares @ 55.0¢·now 47.3¢·exp Nov 7, 2028$0.96
$-0.15
- UP
Bitcoin Up or Down - November 5, 5AM ET
3 shares @ 51.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Nov 5, 2025$0.00
$-1.42
- NO
Will Bill Ackman say "AI" or "Artificial Intelligence" during the X Space event on November 18?
3 shares @ 63.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Nov 18, 2025$0.00
$-1.75
- YES
Will Autozone (AZO) beat quarterly earnings?
2 shares @ 59.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Dec 9, 2025$0.00
$-1.22
- YES
Will Evelyn Matthei come in fourth in the 1st round of the 2025 Chilean presidential election?
2 shares @ 53.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Nov 16, 2025$0.00
$-1.02
Recent activity
- TRADEBUYUS x Iran diplomatic meeting by July 10, 2026?$1.06Jul 10, 09:35 UTC
- TRADEBUYUS x Iran diplomatic meeting by July 10, 2026?$1.05Jul 10, 09:33 UTC
- TRADEBUYStrait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15?$1.05Jul 10, 09:33 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Netflix (NFLX) finish week of July 6 above $130?$1.12Jul 5, 08:07 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill 3 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026?$1.21Jun 28, 08:39 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Donald Trump have a diplomatic meeting with Iran by June 30?$1.23Jun 28, 08:38 UTC
- REDEEMStrait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by June 15?$1.05Jun 28, 08:37 UTC
- REDEEMWill Elon Musk post 80-99 tweets from May 5 to May 12, 2026?$1.05Jun 28, 08:37 UTC
- REDEEMWill the Kharg Island oil terminal be hit by April 30?$1.05Jun 28, 08:37 UTC
- REDEEMCrude Oil all time high by April 30?$1.06Jun 28, 08:37 UTC
- REDEEMKRG declares independence from Iraq by April 30?$1.07Jun 28, 08:37 UTC
- REDEEMWill ChatGPT be #1 Free App in the US Apple App Store on April 14?$1.09Jun 28, 08:37 UTC
- REDEEMAnother GTA VI trailer released by June 15?$1.29Jun 28, 08:37 UTC
- REDEEMChina x Japan sever diplomatic relations in 2025?$1.34Jun 28, 08:37 UTC
- REDEEMWill France join the Board of Peace?$1.35Jun 28, 08:37 UTC
- REDEEMWill Vance visit the Middle East by March 31?$1.67Jun 28, 08:37 UTC
- REDEEMUS Kamikaze Dolphins confirmed by May 31?$2.24Jun 28, 08:37 UTC
- TRADEBUYStrait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by June 15?$1.05Jun 13, 09:16 UTC
- TRADEBUYAnother GTA VI trailer released by June 15?$1.23Jun 13, 09:14 UTC
- TRADEBUYUS Kamikaze Dolphins confirmed by May 31?$2.24May 30, 02:45 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Wallet edge sanity
Do not mirror
0/100Treat this wallet as noise/context only until resolved history, copy-risk, and liquidity checks improve.
Win rate is hidden until at least 3 closed markets exist for this wallet.
Use this wallet as an attention signal only, then verify liquidity and resolution risk.
Required before treating wallet flow as useful
Only 1 closed markets; headline win rate is intentionally hidden.
A wallet trade is not useful unless a later follower could still enter after spread, slippage, and latency.
Large positions need enough depth to exit; mark-to-market PnL is not cash.
The trade still needs source, expiry, dispute, and settlement checks at the market level.
Leaderboards surface visible winners; losing or abandoned wallets disappear from attention.
Wallet intelligence filter
Blocked
14/100Wallet flow is blocked as an intelligence signal until hard failures are fixed.
39 live trades, 0 ledger trades, copy-risk 53/100.
Too few closed markets. Do not infer edge from open PnL or leaderboard rank.
No market-level spread or simulated execution cost is attached yet.
No source/expiry/dispute risk context is attached yet.
No market liquidity/depth context is attached yet.
No delayed-entry simulation is attached yet.
No paper receipts attribute this wallet signal to later outcomes yet.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 39
- Avg trade size
- $4.51
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- Dec 6, 08:20 UTC
- Last active
- Jul 10, 09:35 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 1 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.