Moist-Order
0x8bc84fc35f5555d5396f433937abb7ed6e4597dc
Wallet digest
Activity score
100/100
Performance measurable
Open positions
12
Open notional
$4.5K
Total PnL
$1.0K
Realised
$986.31
Win rate
78%
9 closed
Largest open positions
showing 10 of 12- DOWN
S&P 500 (SPX) Opens Up or Down on July 28?
1039 shares @ 99.9¢·now 100.0¢·exp Jul 28, 2026$1.0K
$0.52
- NO
Will the Iranian regime fall by September 30?
807 shares @ 95.7¢·now 97.5¢·exp Sep 30, 2026$786.58
$13.97
- NO
Will China invade Taiwan by September 30, 2026?
600 shares @ 98.4¢·now 98.6¢·exp Sep 30, 2026$591.59
$1.13
- NO
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026?
557 shares @ 96.1¢·now 96.3¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$536.01
$0.74
- NO
Will China invade Taiwan by December 31, 2027?
500 shares @ 86.0¢·now 86.5¢·exp Dec 31, 2027$432.51
$2.30
- NO
Will Valve add Cobblestone to the map pool by August 30?
369 shares @ 95.2¢·now 96.2¢·exp Aug 30, 2026$354.43
$3.57
- NO
Will Satoshi move any Bitcoin in 2026?
300 shares @ 94.4¢·now 94.5¢·exp Jan 1, 2027$283.36
$0.15
- NO
Jeffrey Epstein confirmed to be alive before 2027?
200 shares @ 97.8¢·now 97.9¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$195.79
$0.10
- NO
Will North Korea invade South Korea before 2027?
148 shares @ 96.5¢·now 97.0¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$143.62
$0.78
- NO
Will Xi Jinping purge Li Qiang in 2026?
101 shares @ 96.9¢·now 98.5¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$99.44
$1.57
Recent activity
- TRADEBUYS&P 500 (SPX) Opens Up or Down on July 28?$4.05Jul 28, 19:42 UTC
- TRADEBUYS&P 500 (SPX) Opens Up or Down on July 28?$15.36Jul 28, 18:38 UTC
- TRADEBUYS&P 500 (SPX) Opens Up or Down on July 28?$19.98Jul 28, 17:10 UTC
- TRADESELLWill China invade Taiwan by December 31, 2027?$1.2KJul 28, 16:43 UTC
- TRADESELLWill China invade Taiwan by December 31, 2027?$470.48Jul 28, 16:43 UTC
- TRADEBUYS&P 500 (SPX) Opens Up or Down on July 28?$999.00Jul 28, 16:37 UTC
- TRADESELLWill China invade Taiwan by December 31, 2027?$51.52Jul 28, 16:33 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill China invade Taiwan by December 31, 2027?$1.2KJul 28, 16:26 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill China invade Taiwan by December 31, 2027?$510.00Jul 28, 16:23 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill China invade Taiwan by end of 2026?$447.67Jul 28, 14:36 UTC
- TRADESELLWill China invade Taiwan by end of 2026?$577.84Jul 28, 14:32 UTC
- TRADESELLWill North Korea invade South Korea before 2027?$50.70Jul 28, 12:31 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill China invade Taiwan by December 31, 2027?$261.00Jul 28, 07:40 UTC
- YIELD$0.05Jul 28, 00:12 UTC
- REWARD$15.47Jul 28, 00:00 UTC
- TRADESELLHantavirus pandemic in 2026?$180.53Jul 27, 20:28 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill China invade Taiwan by end of 2026?$577.20Jul 27, 19:05 UTC
- TRADESELLHantavirus pandemic in 2026?$10.10Jul 27, 09:46 UTC
- REDEEMWill CXMT’s market cap be 400 billion yuan or greater at market close on IPO day by December 31, 2026?$8.6KJul 27, 09:43 UTC
- TRADESELLHantavirus pandemic in 2026?$294.37Jul 27, 09:43 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Wallet edge sanity
Do not mirror
19/100Treat this wallet as noise/context only until resolved history, copy-risk, and liquidity checks improve.
Closed-market sample is still too small to treat the win rate as durable.
Use this wallet as an attention signal only, then verify liquidity and resolution risk.
Many positions were entered near obvious prices, which can inflate win rate while hiding tail risk.
Required before treating wallet flow as useful
78% win rate over 9 closed markets.
A wallet trade is not useful unless a later follower could still enter after spread, slippage, and latency.
Large positions need enough depth to exit; mark-to-market PnL is not cash.
The trade still needs source, expiry, dispute, and settlement checks at the market level.
Leaderboards surface visible winners; losing or abandoned wallets disappear from attention.
Wallet intelligence filter
Watch only
0/100Wallet flow is useful for attention, but missing/review stages stop it from becoming paper attribution.
44 live trades, 0 ledger trades, copy-risk 67/100.
9 closed markets. Enough to inspect, not enough to trust.
No market-level spread or simulated execution cost is attached yet.
No source/expiry/dispute risk context is attached yet.
No market liquidity/depth context is attached yet.
No delayed-entry simulation is attached yet.
No paper receipts attribute this wallet signal to later outcomes yet.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 44
- Avg trade size
- $471.12
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- Jul 26, 15:16 UTC
- Last active
- Jul 28, 19:42 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 9 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.