Informal-Advancement
0x8c147947b1304aaa065bc262acf9b72a8c231f3f
Wallet digest
Activity score
51/100
Performance: thin sample
Open positions
35
Open notional
$0.32
Total PnL
$-86.06
Realised
$0.00
Win rate
n/a
too few closed
Largest open positions
showing 10 of 35- YES
Will Trump recognize Somaliland before 2027?
4 shares @ 22.8¢·now 7.4¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$0.32
$-0.68
- NATUS VINCERE
Dota 2: Team Falcons vs Natus Vincere - Game 2 Winner
2000 shares @ 0.1¢·now 0.0¢·exp Feb 17, 2026$0.00
$-2.00
- NO
Will the government shutdown last 3 days or more?
1000 shares @ 0.2¢·now 0.0¢·exp Mar 31, 2026$0.00
$-2.00
- YES
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 68-69°F on February 10?
988 shares @ 0.5¢·now 0.0¢·exp Feb 10, 2026$0.00
$-5.44
- NO
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be 40°F or higher on January 28?
888 shares @ 1.3¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jan 28, 2026$0.00
$-11.53
- YES
Will the US strike another country first?
668 shares @ 0.3¢·now 0.0¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$0.00
$-2.00
- YES
Will the US strike Yemen next?
500 shares @ 0.2¢·now 0.0¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$0.00
$-1.00
- YES
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be 69°F or below on February 12?
300 shares @ 0.8¢·now 0.0¢·exp Feb 12, 2026$0.00
$-2.50
- YES
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 72-73°F on February 18?
245 shares @ 1.2¢·now 0.0¢·exp Feb 18, 2026$0.00
$-3.00
- NO
Will Trump admin release any more Epstein related files by February 13?
200 shares @ 0.6¢·now 0.0¢·exp Feb 28, 2026$0.00
$-1.20
Recent activity
- TRADEBUYWill there be no change in Fed interest rates after the April 2026 meeting?$1.00Mar 18, 16:50 UTC
- TRADEBUYCrude Oil all time high by March 31?$1.00Mar 18, 16:47 UTC
- TRADEBUYCrude Oil all time high by March 31?$1.00Mar 18, 16:46 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Trump recognize Somaliland before 2027?$1.00Mar 14, 04:43 UTC
- TRADEBUYNetanyahu out by March 31?$1.00Mar 14, 04:42 UTC
- TRADEBUYUS forces enter Iran by March 14?$1.00Mar 13, 06:55 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $150 by end of March?$2.88Mar 13, 06:29 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $150 by end of March?$1.00Mar 5, 17:06 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Iran close the Strait of Hormuz before 2027?$2.79Mar 5, 17:03 UTC
- TRADESELLWill 2026 be the second-hottest year on record?$0.98Mar 5, 17:03 UTC
- TRADEBUYS&P 500 (SPX) Opens Up or Down on March 3?$1.00Mar 3, 07:36 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by March 31?$0.56Mar 3, 07:27 UTC
- TRADESELLUS strikes Iraq by February 28?$0.49Mar 3, 07:27 UTC
- TRADESELL Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by March 31?$1.04Mar 3, 07:27 UTC
- REDEEMIran Strike on Israel by February 28?$0.00Mar 1, 11:27 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill US or Israel strike Iran on March 1, 2026?$0.90Feb 28, 20:43 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill US or Israel strike Iran on March 1, 2026?$0.44Feb 28, 20:43 UTC
- TRADESELLWill 2026 be the hottest year on record?$0.60Feb 28, 20:39 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by March 31?$0.99Feb 28, 20:30 UTC
- TRADEBUYIran Strike on Israel by February 28?$0.72Feb 28, 09:55 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Wallet edge sanity
Do not mirror
0/100Treat this wallet as noise/context only until resolved history, copy-risk, and liquidity checks improve.
Win rate is hidden until at least 3 closed markets exist for this wallet.
Use this wallet as an attention signal only, then verify liquidity and resolution risk.
Many positions were entered near obvious prices, which can inflate win rate while hiding tail risk.
Required before treating wallet flow as useful
Only 0 closed markets; headline win rate is intentionally hidden.
A wallet trade is not useful unless a later follower could still enter after spread, slippage, and latency.
Large positions need enough depth to exit; mark-to-market PnL is not cash.
The trade still needs source, expiry, dispute, and settlement checks at the market level.
Leaderboards surface visible winners; losing or abandoned wallets disappear from attention.
Wallet intelligence filter
Blocked
0/100Wallet flow is blocked as an intelligence signal until hard failures are fixed.
45 live trades, 0 ledger trades, copy-risk 69/100.
Too few closed markets. Do not infer edge from open PnL or leaderboard rank.
No market-level spread or simulated execution cost is attached yet.
No source/expiry/dispute risk context is attached yet.
No market liquidity/depth context is attached yet.
No delayed-entry simulation is attached yet.
No paper receipts attribute this wallet signal to later outcomes yet.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 45
- Avg trade size
- $1.88
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- Feb 14, 16:44 UTC
- Last active
- Mar 18, 16:50 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 0 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.