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PoliticsExpires Dec 31, 2026

Will Trump recognize Somaliland before 2027?

Probability

16¢

1h

+0.0pp

24h

-0.5pp

24h Vol

$234.60

Liquidity

$22.7K

Probability (last 7 days)

-0.9pp 7d
Apr 18, 2026, 04:00Apr 25, 2026, 01:42
updated 0s ago·src:Polymarket CLOB

Why did it move?

 

Heuristic summary, generated from the public market metrics above: probability movement, volume, liquidity, spread, signals, and resolution status.

Timeline — news, trades, signals, price moves

AllTradesSignalsPrice
  • 0s agoResolve

    Market resolves in 5998.3h

    LOW
  • 01:42Signal

    Signal · Resolution risk

    Expires in 5998h with open resolution ambiguity.

    LOW
updated 0s ago·src:Polymarket CLOB·Polymarket Data

Active signals

Recent Trades

No recent trades visible from the Data API for this market.

updated 0s ago·src:Polymarket Data

Related Markets

6
Category · Politics

Market Description

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the United States formally recognizes the Republic of Somaliland as a sovereign state by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". Only formal recognition of Somaliland will qualify. Statements/actions which acknowledge the Republic of Somaliland, or change its diplomatic status with the U.S. but do not formally recognize the country as a sovereign state will not qualify. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the government of the United States, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.

Resolution & Risk

LOW risk
End date
Dec 31, 2026
UMA status
n/a
Resolution source
Not specified in metadata
Market type
Binary
  • No obvious resolution-risk signals in metadata.
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Alerts

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