Muted-Expansionism
0x8c57ef73d51af17a5c8da3d7bab7f0aacc77eb35
Wallet digest
Activity score
51/100
Performance measurable
Open positions
50
Open notional
$86.94
Total PnL
$-337.34
Realised
$7.53
Win rate
5%
42 closed
Largest open positions
showing 10 of 50- NO
Will Ethereum reach $2,100 in August?
33 shares @ 60.0¢·now 80.5¢·exp Sep 1, 2026$26.83
$6.83
- NO
Will Ethereum dip to $1,700 in August?
29 shares @ 69.0¢·now 87.5¢·exp Sep 1, 2026$25.36
$5.36
- YES
Will Palantir Technologies Inc. (PLTR) hit (HIGH) $180 Week of August 17 2026?
30 shares @ 68.0¢·now 51.5¢·exp Aug 21, 2026$15.45
$-4.95
- YES
Will the Los Angeles Dodgers win the 2026 World Series?
30 shares @ 33.0¢·now 31.5¢·exp Oct 31, 2026$9.45
$-0.45
- UP
Palantir (PLTR) Up or Down on August 17?
12 shares @ 57.0¢·now 44.5¢·exp Aug 17, 2026$5.34
$-1.50
- YES
Will Tottenham win the 2026-27 English Premier League (EPL) Championship?
100 shares @ 3.0¢·now 2.9¢·exp May 30, 2027$2.85
$-0.15
- YES
Will Lille win the 2026-27 Ligue 1 Championship?
60 shares @ 1.8¢·now 2.8¢·exp May 30, 2027$1.65
$0.57
- DOWN
Bitcoin Up or Down - July 31, 2:15AM-2:20AM ET
90 shares @ 14.4¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jul 31, 2026$0.00
$-13.00
- YES
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?
80 shares @ 19.8¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jul 20, 2026$0.00
$-15.84
- YES
Will Tottenham be relegated from the English Premier League after the 2025–26 season?
60 shares @ 21.5¢·now 0.0¢·exp May 27, 2026$0.00
$-12.88
Recent activity
- TRADESELLBitcoin Up or Down - August 17, 12:40PM-12:45PM ET$5.77Aug 17, 16:41 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - August 17, 12:40PM-12:45PM ET$3.12Aug 17, 16:40 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - August 17, 12:40PM-12:45PM ET$3.11Aug 17, 16:40 UTC
- TRADESELLBitcoin Up or Down - August 17, 12:35PM-12:40PM ET$0.29Aug 17, 16:38 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - August 17, 12:35PM-12:40PM ET$1.06Aug 17, 16:37 UTC
- TRADESELLBitcoin Up or Down - August 17, 12:35PM-12:40PM ET$2.22Aug 17, 16:37 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - August 17, 12:35PM-12:40PM ET$1.03Aug 17, 16:37 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - August 17, 12:35PM-12:40PM ET$1.03Aug 17, 16:37 UTC
- TRADESELLBitcoin Up or Down - August 17, 12:35PM-12:40PM ET$5.21Aug 17, 16:36 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - August 17, 12:35PM-12:40PM ET$1.04Aug 17, 16:36 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - August 17, 12:35PM-12:40PM ET$1.04Aug 17, 16:35 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - August 17, 12:35PM-12:40PM ET$3.09Aug 17, 16:35 UTC
- TRADESELLBitcoin Up or Down - August 17, 12:30PM-12:35PM ET$3.99Aug 17, 16:33 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - August 17, 12:30PM-12:35PM ET$3.08Aug 17, 16:33 UTC
- TRADESELLBitcoin Up or Down - August 17, 12:30PM-12:35PM ET$1.71Aug 17, 16:33 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - August 17, 12:30PM-12:35PM ET$3.08Aug 17, 16:32 UTC
- TRADESELLBitcoin Up or Down - August 17, 12:30PM-12:35PM ET$8.07Aug 17, 16:30 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - August 17, 12:30PM-12:35PM ET$3.11Aug 17, 16:30 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - August 17, 12:30PM-12:35PM ET$3.10Aug 17, 16:30 UTC
- TRADESELLBitcoin Up or Down - August 17, 12:25PM-12:30PM ET$3.49Aug 17, 16:29 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Wallet edge sanity
Needs review
59/100Useful as a watchlist input, but the edge claim still needs resolved history, cost, and source checks.
Required before treating wallet flow as useful
5% win rate over 42 closed markets.
A wallet trade is not useful unless a later follower could still enter after spread, slippage, and latency.
Large positions need enough depth to exit; mark-to-market PnL is not cash.
The trade still needs source, expiry, dispute, and settlement checks at the market level.
Leaderboards surface visible winners; losing or abandoned wallets disappear from attention.
Wallet intelligence filter
Watch only
29/100Wallet flow is useful for attention, but missing/review stages stop it from becoming paper attribution.
49 live trades, 0 ledger trades, copy-risk 33/100.
42 closed markets, 5% win rate.
No market-level spread or simulated execution cost is attached yet.
No source/expiry/dispute risk context is attached yet.
No market liquidity/depth context is attached yet.
No delayed-entry simulation is attached yet.
No paper receipts attribute this wallet signal to later outcomes yet.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 49
- Avg trade size
- $4.16
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- Aug 17, 14:49 UTC
- Last active
- Aug 17, 16:41 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 42 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.