First-Deviance
0x8ce80ae673f08b562ad495eaa08a5d632e4d8c8d
Wallet digest
Activity score
74/100
Performance: thin sample
Open positions
23
Open notional
$265.88
Total PnL
$-108.72
Realised
$0.00
Win rate
n/a
too few closed
Largest open positions
showing 10 of 23- YES
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?
1102 shares @ 16.1¢·now 16.7¢·exp Jul 20, 2026$183.49
$5.75
- YES
Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 US Presidential Election?
179 shares @ 14.0¢·now 14.3¢·exp Nov 7, 2028$25.62
$0.63
- YES
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?
431 shares @ 4.0¢·now 5.0¢·exp Jul 20, 2026$21.36
$4.03
- YES
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?
100 shares @ 16.1¢·now 16.4¢·exp Jul 20, 2026$16.52
$0.31
- YES
Will Donald Trump Jr. win the 2028 US Presidential Election?
417 shares @ 1.2¢·now 1.1¢·exp Nov 7, 2028$4.79
$-0.21
- YES
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026?
63 shares @ 8.0¢·now 4.5¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$2.78
$-2.22
- YES
Iran leadership change by June 30?
83 shares @ 6.0¢·now 3.3¢·exp Jun 30, 2026$2.75
$-2.25
- YES
Will Ivanka Trump win the 2028 US Presidential Election?
333 shares @ 0.9¢·now 0.8¢·exp Nov 7, 2028$2.50
$-0.50
- YES
Will Israel launch a ground operation in Iran by June 30, 2026?
74 shares @ 6.7¢·now 2.9¢·exp Jun 30, 2026$2.19
$-2.81
- YES
Will Anthropic IPO by July 31, 2026?
97 shares @ 2.4¢·now 2.3¢·exp Jul 1, 2027$2.17
$-0.14
Recent activity
- YIELD$0.02Jun 14, 00:13 UTC
- REDEEMBitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 7:40AM-7:45AM ET$0.00Jun 13, 11:46 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 7:40AM-7:45AM ET$3.16Jun 13, 11:42 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 7:25AM-7:30AM ET$3.15Jun 13, 11:28 UTC
- YIELD$0.02Jun 13, 00:17 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Canada win on 2026-06-12?$7.17Jun 12, 20:26 UTC
- TRADESELLWill China invade Taiwan by December 31, 2027?$14.06Jun 12, 20:26 UTC
- YIELD$0.02Jun 12, 00:16 UTC
- YIELD$0.02Jun 11, 00:10 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Anthropic IPO by July 31, 2026?$2.41Jun 10, 22:58 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 6:50PM-6:55PM ET$4.16Jun 10, 22:50 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 6:45PM-6:50PM ET$1.07Jun 10, 22:49 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 6:45PM-6:50PM ET$2.13Jun 10, 22:48 UTC
- REDEEMBitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 6:20PM-6:25PM ET$0.00Jun 10, 22:47 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 6:20PM-6:25PM ET$2.13Jun 10, 22:21 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?$3.09Jun 10, 22:19 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Austria win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?$1.03Jun 10, 22:19 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?$10.25Jun 10, 22:17 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Trump restart Project Freedom by June 30?$3.00Jun 10, 22:15 UTC
- REDEEMBitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 5:25AM-5:30AM ET$17.54Jun 10, 09:30 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 36
- Avg trade size
- $12.75
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- Jun 8, 15:46 UTC
- Last active
- Jun 14, 00:13 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 0 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.