Intrepid-Magnitude
0x8cf3508fee26f252c91c7011a158f869748fb0fd
Wallet digest
Activity score
69/100
Performance measurable
Open positions
81
Open notional
$23.38
Total PnL
$-279.88
Realised
$-1.23
Win rate
63%
16 closed
Largest open positions
showing 10 of 81- NO
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31?
20 shares @ 60.0¢·now 99.7¢·exp Jul 31, 2026$19.93
$7.93
- YES
Will 4 people leave the Trump Cabinet by December 31, 2026?
24 shares @ 3.0¢·now 14.6¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$3.45
$2.73
- NO
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026?
520 shares @ 0.4¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jul 31, 2026$0.00
$-2.20
- NO
US x Cuba diplomatic meeting by May 31, 2026?
500 shares @ 0.1¢·now 0.0¢·exp May 31, 2026$0.00
$-0.50
- NO
Aliens.gov confirmed immigration website?
500 shares @ 0.2¢·now 0.0¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$0.00
$-1.00
- NO
Will a U.S. anti-cartel operation outside of the United States occur by April 30, 2026?
300 shares @ 0.3¢·now 0.0¢·exp Apr 30, 2026$0.00
$-0.90
- YES
Will the DHS shutdown end between June 22-28 2026?
223 shares @ 1.2¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jul 31, 2026$0.00
$-2.61
- YES
Will there be between 0 and 10 average daily transits of the Strait of Hormuz on June 30?
200 shares @ 16.8¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jun 30, 2026$0.00
$-33.60
- YES
Will the DHS shutdown end between July 6-12 2026?
200 shares @ 1.1¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jul 31, 2026$0.00
$-2.30
- YES
Will the next US x Iran diplomatic meeting be on May 7?
195 shares @ 0.9¢·now 0.0¢·exp May 10, 2026$0.00
$-1.70
Recent activity
- REDEEMWill Core CPI YoY be 2.7% in June?$1.05Jul 14, 14:35 UTC
- TRADESELLWill 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026?$10.40Jun 23, 17:10 UTC
- TRADESELLWill 20 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026?$0.09Jun 23, 13:22 UTC
- TRADESELLWill the US lose jobs in June?$0.30Jun 23, 12:42 UTC
- TRADESELLMojtaba Khamenei seen in public by June 30?$0.85Jun 23, 12:42 UTC
- TRADESELLWill the June 2026 unemployment rate be 4.1%?$0.21Jun 23, 12:42 UTC
- TRADESELLWill 6 people leave the Trump Cabinet by December 31, 2026?$1.69Jun 23, 12:41 UTC
- TRADESELLWill 5 people leave the Trump Cabinet by December 31, 2026?$2.44Jun 23, 12:41 UTC
- TRADESELLWill 4 people leave the Trump Cabinet by December 31, 2026?$4.53Jun 23, 12:41 UTC
- TRADESELLWill 3 people leave the Trump Cabinet by December 31, 2026?$2.42Jun 23, 12:41 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Netanyahu publicly insult Trump by June 30?$1.04Jun 23, 12:40 UTC
- TRADESELLTrump talks to Cuba leader Diaz-Canel by June 30?$1.49Jun 23, 12:39 UTC
- TRADESELLUS announces Cuba oil sanction relief by June 30?$2.69Jun 23, 12:39 UTC
- TRADESELLUS x Cuba economic deal by July 31, 2026?$6.09Jun 23, 12:38 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Israel annex any territory by December 31?$1.10Jun 23, 12:14 UTC
- TRADESELLIsrael and Saudi Arabia normalize relations before 2027?$2.20Jun 23, 12:14 UTC
- TRADESELLStrait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15?$35.00Jun 23, 12:13 UTC
- TRADESELLWill 2 people leave the Trump Cabinet by December 31, 2026?$5.25Jun 23, 12:11 UTC
- TRADESELLWill 2 people leave the Trump Cabinet by December 31, 2026?$0.92Jun 23, 12:11 UTC
- TRADESELLWill China blockade Taiwan in 2026?$1.20Jun 23, 11:55 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Wallet edge sanity
Needs review
32/100Useful as a watchlist input, but the edge claim still needs resolved history, cost, and source checks.
Use this wallet as an attention signal only, then verify liquidity and resolution risk.
Many positions were entered near obvious prices, which can inflate win rate while hiding tail risk.
Required before treating wallet flow as useful
63% win rate over 16 closed markets.
A wallet trade is not useful unless a later follower could still enter after spread, slippage, and latency.
Large positions need enough depth to exit; mark-to-market PnL is not cash.
The trade still needs source, expiry, dispute, and settlement checks at the market level.
Leaderboards surface visible winners; losing or abandoned wallets disappear from attention.
Wallet intelligence filter
Watch only
0/100Wallet flow is useful for attention, but missing/review stages stop it from becoming paper attribution.
49 live trades, 0 ledger trades, copy-risk 58/100.
16 closed markets. Enough to inspect, not enough to trust.
No market-level spread or simulated execution cost is attached yet.
No source/expiry/dispute risk context is attached yet.
No market liquidity/depth context is attached yet.
No delayed-entry simulation is attached yet.
No paper receipts attribute this wallet signal to later outcomes yet.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 49
- Avg trade size
- $5.41
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- Jun 20, 20:27 UTC
- Last active
- Jul 14, 14:35 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 16 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.