Glamorous-Extinction
0x8d116ee32cea4550ab4019eb469999e60bf35c25
Wallet digest
Activity score
65/100
Performance measurable
Open positions
29
Open notional
$2.0K
Total PnL
$-108.17
Realised
$131.46
Win rate
33%
3 closed
Largest open positions
showing 10 of 29- YES
Will Ron DeSantis win the 2028 US Presidential Election?
54772 shares @ 1.3¢·now 1.6¢·exp Nov 7, 2028$848.97
$132.66
- NO
Kash Patel out by December 31?
1031 shares @ 31.9¢·now 65.0¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$670.30
$341.51
- YES
Will the Republican Party control the House after the 2026 Midterm elections?
1543 shares @ 22.0¢·now 14.5¢·exp Nov 3, 2026$223.76
$-115.74
- YES
Will Tulsi Gabbard win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination?
12182 shares @ 1.0¢·now 0.7¢·exp Nov 7, 2028$79.18
$-41.81
- YES
Will Glenn Youngkin win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination?
4949 shares @ 1.0¢·now 0.9¢·exp Nov 7, 2028$47.02
$-2.98
- YES
Will Ted Cruz win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination?
4545 shares @ 1.1¢·now 0.9¢·exp Nov 7, 2028$43.18
$-6.82
- YES
Will JB Pritzker win the 2028 US Presidential Election?
5102 shares @ 1.2¢·now 0.5¢·exp Nov 7, 2028$28.06
$-31.93
- YES
Will Donald Trump Jr. win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination?
1782 shares @ 1.4¢·now 1.1¢·exp Nov 7, 2028$20.49
$-4.51
- YES
Will Byron Donalds win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination?
2222 shares @ 0.9¢·now 0.8¢·exp Nov 7, 2028$16.67
$-3.33
- YES
Will Vivek Ramaswamy win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination?
909 shares @ 1.1¢·now 1.1¢·exp Nov 7, 2028$9.55
$-0.45
Recent activity
- YIELD$0.12Jul 23, 00:12 UTC
- YIELD$0.12Jul 22, 00:15 UTC
- YIELD$0.12Jul 21, 00:10 UTC
- YIELD$0.12Jul 20, 00:10 UTC
- YIELD$0.12Jul 19, 00:10 UTC
- YIELD$0.13Jul 18, 00:14 UTC
- YIELD$0.13Jul 17, 00:11 UTC
- YIELD$0.13Jul 16, 00:17 UTC
- YIELD$0.15Jul 15, 00:11 UTC
- YIELD$0.16Jul 14, 00:15 UTC
- YIELD$0.16Jul 13, 00:14 UTC
- YIELD$0.13Jul 12, 00:14 UTC
- YIELD$0.11Jul 11, 00:14 UTC
- YIELD$0.11Jul 10, 00:16 UTC
- YIELD$0.11Jul 9, 00:16 UTC
- YIELD$0.11Jul 8, 00:17 UTC
- YIELD$0.12Jul 7, 00:17 UTC
- YIELD$0.12Jul 6, 00:11 UTC
- YIELD$0.12Jul 5, 00:16 UTC
- YIELD$0.12Jul 4, 00:12 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Wallet edge sanity
Do not mirror
17/100Treat this wallet as noise/context only until resolved history, copy-risk, and liquidity checks improve.
Closed-market sample is still too small to treat the win rate as durable.
Use this wallet as an attention signal only, then verify liquidity and resolution risk.
Many positions were entered near obvious prices, which can inflate win rate while hiding tail risk.
Required before treating wallet flow as useful
33% win rate over 3 closed markets.
A wallet trade is not useful unless a later follower could still enter after spread, slippage, and latency.
Large positions need enough depth to exit; mark-to-market PnL is not cash.
The trade still needs source, expiry, dispute, and settlement checks at the market level.
Leaderboards surface visible winners; losing or abandoned wallets disappear from attention.
Wallet intelligence filter
Watch only
0/100Wallet flow is useful for attention, but missing/review stages stop it from becoming paper attribution.
No live wallet activity or persistent ledger trades are available.
3 closed markets. Enough to inspect, not enough to trust.
No market-level spread or simulated execution cost is attached yet.
No source/expiry/dispute risk context is attached yet.
No market liquidity/depth context is attached yet.
No delayed-entry simulation is attached yet.
No paper receipts attribute this wallet signal to later outcomes yet.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 0
- Avg trade size
- $0.00
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- Jun 4, 00:13 UTC
- Last active
- Jul 23, 00:12 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 3 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.