Weary-Exaggeration
0x8d2450fb000b903dc652abca70b1ae508a6ea2e9
Wallet digest
Activity score
80/100
Performance measurable
Open positions
4
Open notional
$622.00
Total PnL
$-229.44
Realised
$16.98
Win rate
100%
3 closed
Largest open positions
- UNDER
New England Revolution vs. Houston Dynamo: O/U 4.5
1065 shares @ 80.0¢·now 55.5¢·exp Mar 7, 2026$591.08
$-260.92
- YES
Will Mike Lindell win the 2026 Minnesota Governor Republican primary election?
50 shares @ 28.0¢·now 60.5¢·exp Aug 11, 2026$30.25
$16.25
- YES
Kraken IPO closing market cap above $16B?
3 shares @ 80.0¢·now 18.5¢·exp Jan 1, 2027$0.55
$-1.85
- YES
Will Steve Hilton win the California Governor Election in 2026?
2 shares @ 1.1¢·now 6.2¢·exp Nov 3, 2026$0.12
$0.10
Recent activity
- REDEEMWill Solstice launch a token by September 30 2026?$0.12Jun 17, 18:27 UTC
- REDEEMWill Netanyahu be pardoned by February 28?$0.00Jun 17, 18:27 UTC
- REDEEMEdgeX FDV above $3B one day after launch?$0.00Jun 17, 18:27 UTC
- REDEEMWill Kendrick Lamar be the #2 searched person on Google this year?$0.00Jun 17, 18:27 UTC
- REDEEMWill Orwell: 2+2=5 be nominated for Best Documentary Feature at the 98th Academy Awards?$0.00Jun 17, 18:27 UTC
- REDEEMWill Comcast acquire Warner Bros. Discovery?$0.00Jun 17, 18:27 UTC
- REDEEMWill Shai Gilgeous-Alexander lead the NBA in steals during the 2025–26 NBA season?$1.00Jun 17, 18:27 UTC
- REDEEMWill the Oklahoma City Thunder win the 2025–2026 NBA Northwest Division?$0.00Jun 17, 18:27 UTC
- REDEEMWill the Portland Trail Blazers make the NBA Playoffs?$0.00Jun 17, 18:27 UTC
- REDEEMWill María Corina Machado enter Venezuela by March 31?$0.00Jun 17, 18:27 UTC
- REDEEMBrown University shooter arrested by December 19?$0.00Jun 17, 18:27 UTC
- REDEEMWill Frankenstein be nominated for Best Picture at the 98th Academy Awards?$0.00Jun 17, 18:27 UTC
- REDEEMWill Trump say "Rambo" at the Kennedy Center Honors event?$0.00Jun 17, 18:27 UTC
- REDEEMOver 40,000 ETH committed to the Aztec public sale?$0.00Jun 17, 18:27 UTC
- REDEEMOver $5M committed to the Makina public sale?$0.00Jun 17, 18:27 UTC
- REDEEMWill the Buffalo Bills be eliminated in the Wild Card Round?$0.00Jun 17, 18:27 UTC
- REDEEMWill Delroy Lindo be nominated for Best Supporting Actor at the 98th Academy Awards?$0.00Jun 17, 18:27 UTC
- REDEEMWill the Cleveland Cavaliers win the NBA Cup?$0.00Jun 17, 18:27 UTC
- REDEEMWill Infrared launch a token by September 30 2026?$0.00Jun 17, 18:27 UTC
- REDEEMWill US or Israel strike Iran by January 31, 2026?$0.00Jun 17, 18:27 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Wallet edge sanity
Do not mirror
13/100Treat this wallet as noise/context only until resolved history, copy-risk, and liquidity checks improve.
Closed-market sample is still too small to treat the win rate as durable.
Use this wallet as an attention signal only, then verify liquidity and resolution risk.
Many positions were entered near obvious prices, which can inflate win rate while hiding tail risk.
Required before treating wallet flow as useful
100% win rate over 3 closed markets.
A wallet trade is not useful unless a later follower could still enter after spread, slippage, and latency.
Large positions need enough depth to exit; mark-to-market PnL is not cash.
The trade still needs source, expiry, dispute, and settlement checks at the market level.
Leaderboards surface visible winners; losing or abandoned wallets disappear from attention.
Wallet intelligence filter
Watch only
0/100Wallet flow is useful for attention, but missing/review stages stop it from becoming paper attribution.
No live wallet activity or persistent ledger trades are available.
3 closed markets. Enough to inspect, not enough to trust.
No market-level spread or simulated execution cost is attached yet.
No source/expiry/dispute risk context is attached yet.
No market liquidity/depth context is attached yet.
No delayed-entry simulation is attached yet.
No paper receipts attribute this wallet signal to later outcomes yet.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 0
- Avg trade size
- $0.00
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- Jun 17, 18:27 UTC
- Last active
- Jun 17, 18:27 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 3 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.