Spherical-Marketer
0x8d4b123f43368f6ec14552dcf20f8096ee83030c
Wallet digest
Activity score
59/100
Performance: thin sample
Open positions
136
Open notional
$7.48
Total PnL
$-435.57
Realised
$0.00
Win rate
n/a
too few closed
Largest open positions
showing 10 of 136- YES
Will China unban Bitcoin by 2027?
139 shares @ 14.4¢·now 2.6¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$3.67
$-16.33
- YES
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026?
72 shares @ 15.3¢·now 4.2¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$2.97
$-8.03
- YES
Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027?
6 shares @ 17.0¢·now 5.5¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$0.32
$-0.68
- YES
Will Revolut have the highest IPO Market Cap 2026?
500 shares @ 0.2¢·now 0.1¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$0.25
$-0.75
- YES
Will OpenAI have the highest IPO Market Cap 2026?
26 shares @ 3.8¢·now 0.8¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$0.20
$-0.80
- YES
Will ByteDance have the highest IPO Market Cap 2026?
121 shares @ 0.8¢·now 0.1¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$0.06
$-0.94
- NO
Will Israel launch a major ground offensive in Lebanon by March 31?
31000 shares @ 0.2¢·now 0.0¢·exp Mar 31, 2026$0.00
$-62.00
- YES
Will the price of XRP be less than $0.90 on March 7?
2000 shares @ 0.1¢·now 0.0¢·exp Mar 7, 2026$0.00
$-2.00
- NO
Will Trump say "Waste" this week? (March 1)
1000 shares @ 0.1¢·now 0.0¢·exp Mar 1, 2026$0.00
$-1.00
- NO
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,600 on March 6?
1000 shares @ 0.1¢·now 0.0¢·exp Mar 6, 2026$0.00
$-1.00
Recent activity
- REDEEMWill the US next strike Iran on March 2, 2026 (ET)?$0.00Apr 4, 00:34 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Israel launch a major ground offensive in Lebanon by March 31?$25.00Mar 24, 23:36 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Israel launch a major ground offensive in Lebanon by March 31?$25.00Mar 24, 23:22 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Israel launch a major ground offensive in Lebanon by March 31?$10.00Mar 24, 23:18 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Israel launch a major ground offensive in Lebanon by March 31?$2.00Mar 24, 23:14 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027?$1.00Mar 24, 22:47 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the US confirm that aliens exist by March 31?$1.00Mar 24, 22:46 UTC
- TRADEBUYTrump out as President by June 30?$1.00Mar 24, 22:46 UTC
- TRADEBUYTrump out as President by March 31?$1.00Mar 24, 22:46 UTC
- REDEEMNothing Ever Happens: Military Edition$0.00Mar 22, 21:23 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the price of XRP be between $1.20 and $1.30 on March 7?$2.00Mar 7, 03:55 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the price of XRP be between $1.10 and $1.20 on March 7?$2.00Mar 7, 03:55 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the price of XRP be between $1.00 and $1.10 on March 7?$2.00Mar 7, 03:54 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the price of XRP be between $0.90 and $1.00 on March 7?$2.00Mar 7, 03:54 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the price of XRP be less than $0.90 on March 7?$2.00Mar 7, 03:54 UTC
- TRADEBUYIsrael and Saudi Arabia normalize relations by March 31?$2.00Mar 7, 03:53 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Russia capture all of Kupiansk by March 31?$2.00Mar 7, 03:52 UTC
- TRADEBUYZelenskyy out as Ukraine president by March 31, 2026?$1.00Mar 7, 03:49 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Israel launch a major ground offensive in Gaza by March 31?$1.00Mar 7, 03:49 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Israel strike Greater Beirut on March 8, 2026?$1.00Mar 7, 03:48 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Wallet edge sanity
Do not mirror
0/100Treat this wallet as noise/context only until resolved history, copy-risk, and liquidity checks improve.
Win rate is hidden until at least 3 closed markets exist for this wallet.
Use this wallet as an attention signal only, then verify liquidity and resolution risk.
Many positions were entered near obvious prices, which can inflate win rate while hiding tail risk.
Required before treating wallet flow as useful
Only 0 closed markets; headline win rate is intentionally hidden.
A wallet trade is not useful unless a later follower could still enter after spread, slippage, and latency.
Large positions need enough depth to exit; mark-to-market PnL is not cash.
The trade still needs source, expiry, dispute, and settlement checks at the market level.
Leaderboards surface visible winners; losing or abandoned wallets disappear from attention.
Wallet intelligence filter
Blocked
0/100Wallet flow is blocked as an intelligence signal until hard failures are fixed.
47 live trades, 0 ledger trades, copy-risk 57/100.
Too few closed markets. Do not infer edge from open PnL or leaderboard rank.
No market-level spread or simulated execution cost is attached yet.
No source/expiry/dispute risk context is attached yet.
No market liquidity/depth context is attached yet.
No delayed-entry simulation is attached yet.
No paper receipts attribute this wallet signal to later outcomes yet.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 47
- Avg trade size
- $2.83
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- Mar 5, 23:15 UTC
- Last active
- Apr 4, 00:34 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 0 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.