Academic-Tomatillo
0x8d5b6587a3bdef50077dc34544bf80cedbd05f59
Wallet digest
Activity score
59/100
Performance measurable
Open positions
18
Open notional
$8.50
Total PnL
$-141.23
Realised
$4.22
Win rate
67%
3 closed
Largest open positions
showing 10 of 18- YES
Will any country leave NATO by December 31, 2026?
200 shares @ 9.0¢·now 4.3¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$8.50
$-9.50
- NO
Will Iran close the Strait of Hormuz by March 31?
1000 shares @ 1.1¢·now 0.0¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$0.00
$-11.00
- NO
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by June 30, 2026?
199 shares @ 22.4¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jul 1, 2026$0.00
$-44.59
- YES
Will Croatia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?
100 shares @ 1.2¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jul 20, 2026$0.00
$-1.20
- YES
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?
100 shares @ 11.1¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jul 20, 2026$0.00
$-11.10
- YES
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?
100 shares @ 13.3¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jul 20, 2026$0.00
$-13.30
- YES
Will Bitcoin dip to $70,000 in May?
100 shares @ 13.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jun 1, 2026$0.00
$-13.00
- YES
Will Liverpool win the 2025–26 Champions League?
100 shares @ 6.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp May 31, 2026$0.00
$-6.00
- YES
Will there be no new Supreme Leader of Iran by June 30?
100 shares @ 3.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$0.00
$-3.00
- YES
Will Belgium win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?
100 shares @ 1.8¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jul 20, 2026$0.00
$-1.80
Recent activity
- TRADESELLWill Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?$40.29Jul 16, 05:54 UTC
- YIELD$0.00Jul 16, 00:17 UTC
- YIELD$0.01Jul 15, 00:17 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?$50.00Jul 14, 20:19 UTC
- YIELD$0.01Jul 14, 00:13 UTC
- YIELD$0.01Jul 13, 00:12 UTC
- YIELD$0.01Jul 12, 00:10 UTC
- YIELD$0.01Jul 11, 00:10 UTC
- YIELD$0.01Jul 10, 00:17 UTC
- YIELD$0.01Jul 9, 00:19 UTC
- YIELD$0.01Jul 8, 00:16 UTC
- YIELD$0.01Jul 7, 00:18 UTC
- YIELD$0.01Jul 6, 00:17 UTC
- YIELD$0.01Jul 5, 00:14 UTC
- YIELD$0.01Jul 4, 00:18 UTC
- YIELD$0.01Jul 3, 00:20 UTC
- YIELD$0.01Jul 2, 00:14 UTC
- YIELD$0.01Jul 1, 00:10 UTC
- YIELD$0.01Jun 30, 00:16 UTC
- YIELD$0.01Jun 29, 00:16 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Wallet edge sanity
Do not mirror
9/100Treat this wallet as noise/context only until resolved history, copy-risk, and liquidity checks improve.
Closed-market sample is still too small to treat the win rate as durable.
Large size, concentration, or thin history makes this wallet unsafe to imitate.
Many positions were entered near obvious prices, which can inflate win rate while hiding tail risk.
Required before treating wallet flow as useful
67% win rate over 3 closed markets.
A wallet trade is not useful unless a later follower could still enter after spread, slippage, and latency.
Large positions need enough depth to exit; mark-to-market PnL is not cash.
The trade still needs source, expiry, dispute, and settlement checks at the market level.
Leaderboards surface visible winners; losing or abandoned wallets disappear from attention.
Wallet intelligence filter
Blocked
0/100Wallet flow is blocked as an intelligence signal until hard failures are fixed.
Wallet activity exists, but copy-risk is too high for interpretation.
3 closed markets. Enough to inspect, not enough to trust.
No market-level spread or simulated execution cost is attached yet.
No source/expiry/dispute risk context is attached yet.
No market liquidity/depth context is attached yet.
No delayed-entry simulation is attached yet.
No paper receipts attribute this wallet signal to later outcomes yet.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 5
- Avg trade size
- $61.13
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- Jun 1, 16:44 UTC
- Last active
- Jul 16, 05:54 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 3 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.