Colorless-Earthworm
0x8d65a382a2787525e9f730923cf6f209e6a5da6e
Wallet digest
Activity score
72/100
Performance measurable
Open positions
175
Open notional
$289.89
Total PnL
$-7.0K
Realised
$-43.71
Win rate
43%
7 closed
Largest open positions
showing 10 of 175- NO
China x Philippines military clash before 2027?
66 shares @ 76.0¢·now 70.5¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$46.38
$-3.62
- NO
Will gas hit $4.25 (High) by August 31?
46 shares @ 76.4¢·now 84.0¢·exp Aug 31, 2026$38.47
$3.47
- NO
Will the United States send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by August 31, 2026?
38 shares @ 79.9¢·now 86.0¢·exp Aug 31, 2026$32.29
$2.29
- NO
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $70 in August?
42 shares @ 72.3¢·now 77.5¢·exp Sep 1, 2026$32.17
$2.17
- NO
Will gas hit $4.50 (High) by August 31?
33 shares @ 60.0¢·now 88.0¢·exp Aug 31, 2026$29.33
$9.33
- NO
Will Gold (XAUUSD) hit (LOW) $3,800 in August?
28 shares @ 72.0¢·now 97.8¢·exp Sep 1, 2026$27.15
$7.15
- YES
Will GameStop acquire eBay?
235 shares @ 17.0¢·now 8.5¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$20.00
$-20.00
- NO
Will Darline Graham Nordone be the new republican nominee for Senate in South Carolina?
25 shares @ 20.3¢·now 58.1¢·exp Aug 11, 2026$14.32
$9.32
- NO
US x Iran Effective Ceasefire by July 31?
182 shares @ 82.3¢·now 6.5¢·exp Jul 31, 2026$11.84
$-138.16
- NO
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $100 in August?
13 shares @ 75.6¢·now 87.0¢·exp Sep 1, 2026$11.50
$1.50
Recent activity
- REDEEMWill 30 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by July 31, 2026?$57.27Aug 7, 09:37 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the United States send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by August 31, 2026?$20.00Aug 2, 11:06 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill gas hit $4.25 (High) by August 31?$30.13Aug 2, 11:01 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill gas hit $4.25 (High) by August 31?$5.12Aug 2, 01:40 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill gas hit $4.50 (High) by August 31?$20.32Aug 2, 01:39 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Gold (XAUUSD) hit (LOW) $3,900 in August?$5.09Aug 2, 01:38 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Gold (XAUUSD) hit (HIGH) $4,200 in August?$20.43Aug 2, 01:36 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Gold (XAUUSD) hit (LOW) $3,800 in August?$20.22Aug 2, 01:35 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the United States send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by August 31, 2026?$10.00Aug 1, 14:20 UTC
- REDEEMWill gas hit $4.25 (High) by July 31?$63.10Aug 1, 10:54 UTC
- REDEEMUS announces end of Iranian blockade by July 31, 2026?$114.03Aug 1, 06:04 UTC
- REDEEMWill WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $80 in July?$26.67Jul 31, 23:04 UTC
- REDEEMWill Gold (XAUUSD) hit (LOW) $3,900 in July?$177.01Jul 31, 23:02 UTC
- REDEEMWill WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $100 in July?$62.89Jul 31, 23:02 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $100 in August?$10.10Jul 31, 14:35 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $70 in August?$30.33Jul 31, 14:34 UTC
- TRADEBUYUS x Iran Effective Ceasefire by July 31?$50.00Jul 31, 14:21 UTC
- TRADEBUYUS x Iran Effective Ceasefire by July 31?$50.00Jul 30, 11:59 UTC
- REDEEMWill there be no change in Fed interest rates after the July 2026 meeting?$20.27Jul 29, 20:07 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $80 in July?$20.20Jul 29, 17:45 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Wallet edge sanity
Needs review
28/100Useful as a watchlist input, but the edge claim still needs resolved history, cost, and source checks.
Closed-market sample is still too small to treat the win rate as durable.
Open-position PnL can disappear if liquidity, exit price, or final resolution changes.
Use this wallet as an attention signal only, then verify liquidity and resolution risk.
Required before treating wallet flow as useful
43% win rate over 7 closed markets.
A wallet trade is not useful unless a later follower could still enter after spread, slippage, and latency.
Large positions need enough depth to exit; mark-to-market PnL is not cash.
The trade still needs source, expiry, dispute, and settlement checks at the market level.
Leaderboards surface visible winners; losing or abandoned wallets disappear from attention.
Wallet intelligence filter
Watch only
0/100Wallet flow is useful for attention, but missing/review stages stop it from becoming paper attribution.
40 live trades, 0 ledger trades, copy-risk 57/100.
7 closed markets. Enough to inspect, not enough to trust.
No market-level spread or simulated execution cost is attached yet.
No source/expiry/dispute risk context is attached yet.
No market liquidity/depth context is attached yet.
No delayed-entry simulation is attached yet.
No paper receipts attribute this wallet signal to later outcomes yet.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 40
- Avg trade size
- $43.22
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- Jul 21, 06:59 UTC
- Last active
- Aug 7, 09:37 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 7 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.