Constant-Passbook
0x8daf2074d1bd70628f11513fb72c515a0869ef60
Wallet digest
Activity score
87/100
Performance measurable
Open positions
59
Open notional
$4.5K
Total PnL
$-459.10
Realised
$-39.66
Win rate
57%
7 closed
Largest open positions
showing 10 of 59- NO
Will James Talarico win the 2028 US Presidential Election?
1002 shares @ 99.2¢·now 99.2¢·exp Nov 7, 2028$993.48
$-0.50
- NO
Will John Fetterman win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?
1000 shares @ 99.2¢·now 99.2¢·exp Nov 7, 2028$991.50
$-0.50
- NO
Will Chris Murphy win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?
950 shares @ 99.2¢·now 99.2¢·exp Nov 7, 2028$941.92
$-0.47
- NO
Xi Jinping out before 2027?
800 shares @ 92.5¢·now 93.0¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$743.60
$3.60
- NO
2026 Balance of Power: Other
500 shares @ 99.2¢·now 99.2¢·exp Nov 3, 2026$496.01
$0.00
- YES
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?
1000 shares @ 9.7¢·now 10.5¢·exp Jul 20, 2026$105.50
$8.50
- YES
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?
500 shares @ 16.0¢·now 16.8¢·exp Jul 20, 2026$83.75
$3.75
- YES
Will Abelardo de la Espriella win the 2026 Colombian presidential election?
29 shares @ 63.0¢·now 86.5¢·exp Jun 21, 2026$25.21
$6.85
- YES
Will Mercedes be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion?
20 shares @ 67.0¢·now 84.5¢·exp Dec 6, 2026$16.90
$3.50
- YES
Will Senegal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?
2000 shares @ 0.7¢·now 0.7¢·exp Jul 20, 2026$13.00
$-1.00
Recent activity
- TRADESELLUS announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 15?$87.45Jun 13, 11:38 UTC
- TRADESELLUS announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 15?$234.90Jun 13, 11:36 UTC
- TRADESELLUS announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 15?$110.00Jun 13, 11:33 UTC
- TRADESELLUS announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 15?$81.90Jun 13, 11:25 UTC
- TRADESELLUS announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 15?$15.00Jun 13, 11:18 UTC
- TRADESELLUS announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 15?$17.10Jun 13, 11:18 UTC
- TRADESELLUS announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 15?$104.00Jun 13, 11:13 UTC
- TRADESELLUS x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 30, 2026?$23.76Jun 13, 11:11 UTC
- TRADEBUYUS x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 30, 2026?$3.85Jun 13, 11:11 UTC
- TRADEBUYUS x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 30, 2026?$2.57Jun 13, 11:11 UTC
- TRADEBUYUS x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 30, 2026?$2.59Jun 13, 11:11 UTC
- TRADEBUYUS x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 30, 2026?$2.72Jun 13, 11:11 UTC
- TRADEBUYUS x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 30, 2026?$2.57Jun 13, 11:11 UTC
- TRADEBUYUS x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 30, 2026?$4.73Jun 13, 11:11 UTC
- TRADEBUYUS x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 30, 2026?$4.72Jun 13, 11:11 UTC
- TRADEBUYUS announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 15?$640.00Jun 13, 11:02 UTC
- TRADEBUYUS announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 15?$130.00Jun 13, 11:02 UTC
- REDEEMWill United States win on 2026-06-12?$10.00Jun 13, 05:50 UTC
- REFERRAL_REWARD$1.46Jun 13, 00:35 UTC
- YIELD$0.39Jun 13, 00:14 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 38
- Avg trade size
- $128.17
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- Jun 10, 00:00 UTC
- Last active
- Jun 13, 11:38 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 7 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.