Will N’Kiyla “Jasmine” Thomas be the Democratic nominee for Senate in Oklahoma?
Probability
50¢
1h
+2.5pp
24h
-4.0pp
24h Vol
$0.00
Liquidity
$9.2K
Probability (last 7 days)
-0.5pp 7dWhy did it move?
Structured · 3 factors- 1
Down 4pp over 24h
Now 50¢; +2.5pp in the last hour.
- 2
Resolution-risk signal firing
Expires in 1232h with open resolution ambiguity.
- 3
Wide spread — 14.0¢
Bid-ask spread is wide enough that intraday moves overstate any tradeable edge. Most of the headline pp move would be eaten by spread on a market order.
What to track next
- Verify the resolution source on this page — exchange feed, official release, news consensus — before treating any move as new information.
Verification actions only — never trade recommendations.
Each factor is grounded in a single named metric you can verify on this page — probability, volume, liquidity, signal, resolution state. No predictions, no prose hallucinations.
AI prose summary
Prose narration of the same metrics shown in the structured breakdown above. Cites only the market data on this page — no news, no predictions. Use the structured factors as the canonical answer; this is here for readability.
Timeline — news, trades, signals, price moves
- 0s agoResolveLOW
Market resolves in 1231.9h
- 16:04SignalLOW
Signal · Resolution risk
Expires in 1232h with open resolution ambiguity.
- 16:04PriceMEDIUM
Probability up 8.0pp
to 53¢
- 15:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability up 4.0pp
to 50¢
- 13:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability up 5.0pp
to 51¢
- 11:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability up 3.0pp
to 52¢
- 09:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability up 9.5pp
to 54¢
- 06:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability up 3.0pp
to 56¢
- 02:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability up 7.5pp
to 55¢
- 00:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability up 3.5pp
to 54¢
- 20:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability up 5.5pp
to 56¢
- 17:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability up 3.5pp
to 54¢
- 1d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability up 5.0pp
to 54¢
- 1d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability up 3.0pp
to 54¢
- 1d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability up 4.5pp
to 52¢
- 1d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability up 4.0pp
to 48¢
- 1d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability up 5.0pp
to 51¢
- 1d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability up 3.5pp
to 53¢
- 1d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability down -5.0pp
to 41¢
- 2d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability down -9.5pp
to 43¢
- 2d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability down -4.0pp
to 44¢
- 2d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability down -4.0pp
to 47¢
- 2d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability up 7.0pp
to 50¢
- 2d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability down -5.5pp
to 45¢
- 2d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability up 4.0pp
to 54¢
Active signals
Recent Trades
No recent trades visible from the Data API for this market.
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Market Description
This market will resolve according to the winner of the Democratic Primary for United States Senator from Oklahoma. If no 2026 Oklahoma Democratic Senate Primary takes place, this market will resolve to "Other". The resolution source for this market will be the first announcement of the results from the Oklahoma Democratic Party, however an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may suffice.
Resolution & Risk
LOW risk- End date
- Jun 16, 2026
- UMA status
- n/a
- Resolution source
- credible reportingNews consensusextracted · medium
- Market type
- Multi-outcome (neg-risk)
- Part of a multi-outcome event (neg-risk): only one market can resolve YES.
- Wide spread (14.0¢) — liquidity risk on entry/exit.
Alerts
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