Strange-Minimum
0x8de2cebd8ec4c7ed023347d2aad27b3fe08e8483
Wallet digest
Activity score
77/100
Performance measurable
Open positions
109
Open notional
$5.4K
Total PnL
$-5.9K
Realised
$2.2K
Win rate
70%
53 closed
Largest open positions
showing 10 of 109- NO
Hantavirus vaccine in 2026?
3244 shares @ 89.6¢·now 94.5¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$3.1K
$160.18
- YES
Will GPT-6 be released before GTA VI?
1672 shares @ 60.1¢·now 50.5¢·exp Jul 31, 2026$844.45
$-161.15
- NO
Will Manchester City win the 2026-27 English Premier League (EPL) Championship?
800 shares @ 71.9¢·now 70.5¢·exp May 30, 2027$564.00
$-10.86
- NO
Will there be at least 10000 cyclosporiasis cases in the U.S. by July 31, 2026?
494 shares @ 76.9¢·now 95.1¢·exp Jul 31, 2026$469.76
$89.71
- NO
EU dissolves before 2027?
114 shares @ 97.3¢·now 97.7¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$111.57
$0.46
- NO
Will the Boston Celtics make the 2027 NBA Play-In Tournament?
100 shares @ 41.2¢·now 75.0¢·exp Jan 1, 1970$75.00
$33.80
- NO
Will the number of votes cast in the 2026 Clacton by-election be less than 10,000?
52 shares @ 95.2¢·now 99.5¢·exp Aug 13, 2026$51.89
$2.23
- NO
Kristi Noem divorce by August 31?
107 shares @ 67.2¢·now 41.5¢·exp Aug 31, 2026$44.51
$-27.57
- NO
Adam Back confirmed to be Satoshi by December 31?
34 shares @ 97.1¢·now 97.7¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$33.57
$0.22
- NO
Any country withdraws from EU before 2027?
28 shares @ 94.0¢·now 96.7¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$26.65
$0.73
Recent activity
- REWARD$8.83Jul 28, 00:00 UTC
- REDEEMWill LeBron's next contract average under $4M per year?$201.97Jul 27, 14:41 UTC
- REWARD$8.62Jul 27, 00:00 UTC
- REWARD$8.50Jul 26, 00:00 UTC
- TRADESELLHantavirus vaccine in 2026? $1.00Jul 25, 20:53 UTC
- TRADESELLAdam Back confirmed to be Satoshi by December 31?$2.00Jul 25, 05:46 UTC
- REWARD$8.39Jul 25, 00:00 UTC
- REDEEMWill Trump be in the WC Champions Photo?$15.6KJul 24, 00:32 UTC
- REWARD$7.26Jul 24, 00:00 UTC
- REDEEMWill U.S. viewership of the 2026 FIFA World Cup Final be between 34 million and 38 million?$301.71Jul 23, 03:44 UTC
- REDEEMWill U.S. viewership of the 2026 FIFA World Cup Final be between 30 million and 34 million?$106.52Jul 23, 03:44 UTC
- REDEEMWill U.S. viewership of the 2026 FIFA World Cup Final be between 38 million and 42 million?$117.49Jul 23, 03:44 UTC
- REDEEMWill U.S. viewership of the 2026 FIFA World Cup Final be between 54 million and 58 million?$50.76Jul 23, 03:43 UTC
- REWARD$6.37Jul 23, 00:00 UTC
- REDEEMWill there be at least 1800 cyclosporiasis cases in the U.S. by July 31, 2026?$538.19Jul 22, 01:50 UTC
- REDEEMWill there be at least 3000 cyclosporiasis cases in the U.S. by July 31, 2026?$132.70Jul 22, 01:50 UTC
- REDEEMWill there be at least 2500 cyclosporiasis cases in the U.S. by July 31, 2026?$505.34Jul 22, 01:50 UTC
- REWARD$6.32Jul 22, 00:00 UTC
- TRADESELLHantavirus vaccine in 2026? $23.75Jul 21, 19:59 UTC
- REWARD$6.25Jul 21, 18:54 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Wallet edge sanity
Needs review
71/100Useful as a watchlist input, but the edge claim still needs resolved history, cost, and source checks.
Open-position PnL can disappear if liquidity, exit price, or final resolution changes.
Many positions were entered near obvious prices, which can inflate win rate while hiding tail risk.
Required before treating wallet flow as useful
70% win rate over 53 closed markets.
A wallet trade is not useful unless a later follower could still enter after spread, slippage, and latency.
Large positions need enough depth to exit; mark-to-market PnL is not cash.
The trade still needs source, expiry, dispute, and settlement checks at the market level.
Leaderboards surface visible winners; losing or abandoned wallets disappear from attention.
Wallet intelligence filter
Watch only
29/100Wallet flow is useful for attention, but missing/review stages stop it from becoming paper attribution.
8 live trades, 0 ledger trades, copy-risk 47/100.
53 closed markets, 70% win rate.
No market-level spread or simulated execution cost is attached yet.
No source/expiry/dispute risk context is attached yet.
No market liquidity/depth context is attached yet.
No delayed-entry simulation is attached yet.
No paper receipts attribute this wallet signal to later outcomes yet.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 8
- Avg trade size
- $40.22
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- Jul 20, 00:14 UTC
- Last active
- Jul 28, 00:00 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 53 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.