Kristi Noem divorce by August 31?
Probability
44¢
1h
+0.0pp
24h
+9.5pp
24h Vol
$49.28
Liquidity
$143.80
Probability (last 7 days)
+9.0pp 7dWhy did it move?
Structured · 3 factors- 1
Up 10pp over 24h
Now 44¢; flat in the last hour.
- 2
Resolution-risk signal firing
Expires in 3050h with open resolution ambiguity.
- 3
Wide spread — 26.0¢
Bid-ask spread is wide enough that intraday moves overstate any tradeable edge. Most of the headline pp move would be eaten by spread on a market order.
What to track next
- Verify the resolution source on this page — exchange feed, official release, news consensus — before treating any move as new information.
Verification actions only — never trade recommendations.
Each factor is grounded in a single named metric you can verify on this page — probability, volume, liquidity, signal, resolution state. No predictions, no prose hallucinations.
Timeline
critical · price · trade flowCritical
- 0s agoResolveLOW
Market resolves in 3049.6h
- 22:21SignalLOW
Resolution risk
Expires in 3050h with open resolution ambiguity.
Price movement
+9.5pp over the last 24h, now 44¢.
Biggest hourly move: -10.5pp at 2d ago (to 37¢).
Show top 8 of 60 hourly moves
- 13:00 · -7.5pp → 35¢
- 12:00 · -7.5pp → 35¢
- 10:00 · -7.5pp → 35¢
- 09:00 · -7.5pp → 35¢
- 1d ago · -7.5pp → 35¢
- 2d ago · -10.5pp → 37¢
- 2d ago · -8.5pp → 37¢
- 2d ago · -9.5pp → 37¢
Active signals
Recent Trades
No recent trades visible from the Data API for this market.
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Market Description
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Kristi Noem and/or her spouse announce their intention to divorce by August 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". An announcement by the specified date of their intention to divorce will be sufficient for a "Yes" resolution, regardless of whether the divorce later actually occurs, or whether the actual divorce occurs outside of the timeframe of this market. The resolution source will be statements from Kristi Noem and/or her spouse, and their representatives, however a definitive consensus of credible media reporting may be considered.
Resolution & Risk
MEDIUM risk- End date
- Aug 31, 2026
- UMA status
- n/a
- Resolution source
Not stated explicitly in the metadata. Read the full market rules below before treating any move as a resolved fact.
- Market type
- Binary
- No primary resolution source listed — read the full market rules before acting.
- Wide spread (26.0¢) — liquidity risk on entry/exit.
Alerts
In-app banners fire as soon as a rule is satisfied. Email, Telegram, and Discord delivery are coming soon — every existing rule will keep working without changes.