Careless-Permafrost
0x8e0848e3092c6bc664782d249c4faf5a02f7c5cc
Wallet digest
Activity score
52/100
Performance: thin sample
Open positions
16
Open notional
$0.59
Total PnL
$-17.41
Realised
$0.00
Win rate
n/a
too few closed
Largest open positions
showing 10 of 16- YES
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?
4 shares @ 28.0¢·now 16.5¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$0.59
$-0.41
- YES
Will Norway win the second most gold medals in the 2026 Winter Olympics?
1018 shares @ 0.2¢·now 0.0¢·exp Feb 22, 2026$0.00
$-2.00
- YES
Will Japan win the second most gold medals in the 2026 Winter Olympics?
1000 shares @ 0.1¢·now 0.0¢·exp Feb 22, 2026$0.00
$-1.00
- NO
Will Trump say "Million" or "Billion" or "Trillion" 20+ times in Rome, GA on February 19?
1000 shares @ 0.1¢·now 0.0¢·exp Feb 19, 2026$0.00
$-1.00
- YES
Will Trump say "AI" or "Crypto" in Rome, GA on February 19?
335 shares @ 0.3¢·now 0.0¢·exp Feb 19, 2026$0.00
$-1.00
- YES
Will Canada win the second most gold medals in the 2026 Winter Olympics?
100 shares @ 1.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Feb 22, 2026$0.00
$-1.00
- YES
Will Trump say "Traitor" in Rome, GA on February 19?
82 shares @ 1.2¢·now 0.0¢·exp Feb 19, 2026$0.00
$-1.00
- YES
Will Switzerland win the second most gold medals in the 2026 Winter Olympics?
24 shares @ 4.2¢·now 0.0¢·exp Feb 22, 2026$0.00
$-1.00
- NO
Will Trump admin release any more Epstein related files by February 28?
11 shares @ 9.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Feb 28, 2026$0.00
$-1.00
- DOWN
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 4, 3:15PM-3:30PM ET
7 shares @ 15.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Feb 4, 2026$0.00
$-1.00
Recent activity
- TRADEBUYWill the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?$1.00Apr 7, 22:57 UTC
- REDEEMWill FK Bodø/Glimt win on 2026-03-11?$7.16Mar 12, 01:04 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill FK Bodø/Glimt win on 2026-03-11?$3.00Mar 11, 17:36 UTC
- REDEEMWill Trump say "America" or "American" 25+ times during the 2026 State of the Union address?$1.04Feb 25, 09:31 UTC
- REDEEMWill Trump say "Alien" during the 2026 State of the Union address?$1.16Feb 25, 09:31 UTC
- REDEEMWill Trump say "Border" 7+ times during the 2026 State of the Union address?$2.50Feb 25, 09:31 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Trump say "Job" 20+ times during the 2026 State of the Union address?$1.00Feb 24, 14:44 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Trump say "America" or "American" 25+ times during the 2026 State of the Union address?$1.00Feb 24, 14:43 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Trump say "Black" or "Hispanic" during the 2026 State of the Union address?$1.00Feb 24, 14:40 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Trump say "Fake News" during the 2026 State of the Union address?$1.00Feb 24, 14:40 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Trump say "Alien" during the 2026 State of the Union address?$1.00Feb 24, 14:39 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Trump say "Kamala" or "Harris" during the 2026 State of the Union address?$1.00Feb 24, 14:39 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Trump say "Border" 7+ times during the 2026 State of the Union address?$2.00Feb 24, 14:38 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Trump say "Fake News" during the 2026 State of the Union address?$1.00Feb 24, 14:32 UTC
- REDEEMWill Trump say “Low IQ” by February 28?$1.18Feb 23, 11:11 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Trump say "Traitor" in Rome, GA on February 19?$1.00Feb 19, 23:56 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Trump say "AI" or "Crypto" in Rome, GA on February 19?$1.00Feb 19, 23:49 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Trump say "Million" or "Billion" or "Trillion" 20+ times in Rome, GA on February 19?$1.00Feb 19, 23:46 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Switzerland win the second most gold medals in the 2026 Winter Olympics?$1.00Feb 19, 21:05 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Canada win the second most gold medals in the 2026 Winter Olympics?$1.00Feb 19, 21:05 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 29
- Avg trade size
- $1.41
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- Feb 4, 20:22 UTC
- Last active
- Apr 7, 22:57 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 0 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read — copy-risk bar is inverted so green is always "better for the user".